Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadec8716f2d3c9177b0d1344437a7c01c3ede634f46dec9f6debfc5eb89b7f7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 227 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 7c | 15,424$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.1 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed No | 13c | 6,195$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…b6ccbacked No | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069a…9ac0backed Yes | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…7934backed Yes | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…d698backed No | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…4719backed Yes | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…894bbacked Yes | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7246…a3dbbacked No | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…aabfbacked No | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 65c | 4,413$2,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,526.91 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 78c | 4,009$3,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.87 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 80c | 3,639$2,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.11 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 25c | 3,076$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…c7c8backed No | 17c | 2,860$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked No | 19c | 2,822$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.36 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 15c | 2,272$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.39 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed No | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97d2…e372backed No | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee72…e4c0backed Yes | 80c | 1,967$1,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.88 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2388backed No | 46c | 1,936$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…ea7ebacked No | 17c | 1,722$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 54c | 1,552$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.89 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked No | 14c | 1,525$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 21c | 1,492$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.64 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed No | 18c | 1,389$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x712d…3d9abacked No | 18c | 1,147$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.91 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 5c | 1,075$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb40…7fa0backed No | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…895fbacked No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…af66backed No | 23c | 999.95$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.99 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ba…d0c6backed No | 34c | 820.23$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.62 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 18c | 714.92$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.42 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…5cc6backed No | 22c | 680$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9346backed No | 16c | 670$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 78c | 643.47$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.73 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd558…2de7backed Yes | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed No | 36c | 558.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf414…917fbacked No | 18c | 557.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 78c | 526.74$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.32 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…df5cbacked Yes | 55c | 510$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10f6…8ba0backed No | 20c | 506.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…4a91backed No | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc0…4da8backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef1…7772backed No | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked No | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 20c | 499.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…1d27backed No | 22c | 449.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked No | 18c | 445.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 16cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed No | 23c | 443.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…8632backed No | 23c | 429.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…4775backed Yes | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 14c | 369.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 75c | 350$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…bd62backed No | 19c | 339.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…a34cbacked No | 22c | 331$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 76c | 327.48$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.23 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…24febacked Yes | 49c | 326.94$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…45f2backed Yes | 79c | 324.99$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 79c | 300$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1849…aca9backed No | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f26…adacbacked No | 18c | 273.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d4…83bbbacked No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…f8dcbacked No | 19c | 237.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…1134backed No | 15c | 226.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd295…a832backed No | 19c | 206.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 10c | 205.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…85aebacked No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8a…67d7backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x928f…9c61backed Yes | 80c | 188.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca8…b0b3backed No | 15c | 188.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed No | 20c | 187.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb9…afd9backed Yes | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…b6afbacked No | 15c | 182.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc87a…7a5bbacked No | 22c | 180$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…78e9backed No | 45c | 179.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa72…1285backed No | 22c | 175.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9415…cb92backed No | 19c | 171.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…6c18backed No | 16c | 166.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6193…58cabacked No | 19c | 163.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…453dbacked No | 21c | 160$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…f4e2backed No | 31c | 159.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe783…aa3abacked No | 13c | 151.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 80c | 150.58$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ea…3538backed Yes | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe646…6450backed No | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…77fdbacked No | 20c | 149.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d25…4e7cbacked No | 21c | 143.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb812…59b3backed Yes | 78c | 140$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…d657backed No | 22c | 139$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 43c | 133.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…8816backed Yes | 78c | 126$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed No | 46c | 124.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 121.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08eb…ee62backed No | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…5501backed Yes | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "growth" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "price" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.