Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "growth" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dcbaf3df0083c2a68a7509079b8275595708ba53ca5e083028d125f88be2093
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 219 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7784…b6ccbacked No | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069a…9ac0backed Yes | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…7934backed Yes | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…d698backed No | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…4719backed Yes | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…894bbacked Yes | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7246…a3dbbacked No | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…aabfbacked No | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…2429backed Yes | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…b528backed No | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed No | 53c | 2,288$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.89 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…f7f0backed Yes | 1c | 1,545$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb04…1a5ebacked No | 72c | 1,497$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 71c | 1,272$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.05 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5237…89babacked No | 52c | 1,189$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 40c | 1,037$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.19 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf9…9d9fbacked Yes | 47c | 999.98$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +155.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 50c | 913.89$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Yes | 49c | 738.99$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed Yes | 11c | 680.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…d7fcbacked Yes | 48c | 591.77$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…fe58backed Yes | 40c | 550$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed No | 52c | 540.63$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6050…80d6backed Yes | 8c | 492.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…df4cbacked Yes | 48c | 381.41$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…b69dbacked Yes | 49c | 332$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 51c | 313.85$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.29 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e09…c03abacked Yes | 51c | 312.81$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a39…2570backed Yes | 50c | 312$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 49c | 297.27$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.64 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…45cfbacked No | 51c | 293.54$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 271.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 247.81$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.24 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Yes | 48c | 233.11$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 52c | 219.38$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.23 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74da…1ba5backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97b…388dbacked Yes | 48c | 215.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7f…d665backed Yes | 49c | 212$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…abf1backed Yes | 47c | 205.32$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb812…59b3backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ba…d0c6backed Yes | 49c | 199.47$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…ce9fbacked Yes | 49c | 188.45$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 48c | 184.04$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.06 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed No | 57c | 174.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad7…f2b0backed Yes | 49c | 169.06$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…7e7bbacked No | 54c | 168.94$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f7…77c3backed Yes | 48c | 162.65$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc0…f0f9backed Yes | 51c | 160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d4…83bbbacked No | 48c | 155.07$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 50c | 145$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x950c…063ebacked Yes | 50c | 143$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…c1adbacked No | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79a9…1e1dbacked Yes | 48c | 140$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 47c | 137.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf81…48bebacked Yes | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f18…9536backed Yes | 51c | 129$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 46c | 119.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.43 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 72c | 117.38$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked No | 54c | 117.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6443…98a0backed No | 49c | 115$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…5501backed Yes | 50c | 111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 67c | 108$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…b4b9backed Yes | 50c | 106$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…982abacked Yes | 50c | 105$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…8816backed Yes | 49c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ea…3538backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…948abacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…3f9fbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…3621backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x715b…3ee1backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe646…6450backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…983fbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f0…c03ebacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…1909backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d8…517dbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x928f…9c61backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x184d…0a71backed Yes | 54c | 99.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6444…3eccbacked No | 53c | 99.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d4…3f92backed Yes | 48c | 98.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…e048backed No | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf620…3b39backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf957…4d42backed Yes | 51c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ab…6778backed Yes | 49c | 91.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac8…211abacked No | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…a1c2backed Yes | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fba…7174backed Yes | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…59c3backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f4…e108backed Yes | 50c | 89.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…4864backed Yes | 50c | 89.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…85aebacked No | 49c | 89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6627…6039backed Yes | 49c | 88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5386…2751backed No | 51c | 88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ec…3f76backed No | 49c | 88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55de…2b4dbacked No | 49c | 88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fb…cdbfbacked Yes | 51c | 88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186b…5784backed Yes | 51c | 88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…1163backed No | 49c | 88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…2a1bbacked No | 53c | 86.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…a34cbacked No | 50c | 86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "growth" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "price" 10 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.