Weather · resolved market
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf873b562a57f806b34aa30ecbcf37d61462bbf819e5fa5f2a04fe202bc1bca77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $308,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $168,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $308,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 0c | 103,986$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.91 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…90febacked Yes | 0c | 20,490$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…c2f4backed Yes | 26c | 15,755$4,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,065.19 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…1af8backed Yes | 30c | 12,025$3,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,609.39 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1680…e81bbacked Yes | 44c | 11,137$4,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,923.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 23c | 10,516$2,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,415.26 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…f310backed Yes | 9c | 8,025$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.88 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 8c | 7,882$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.38 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 31c | 5,337$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,642.11 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 34c | 3,068$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.41 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…a2cdbacked No | 77c | 3,011$2,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 79c | 2,929$2,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…ae3abacked Yes | 26c | 2,625$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 77c | 2,305$1,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,774.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed No | 36c | 2,247$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.73 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 74c | 2,130$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.76 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 54cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…54e9backed Yes | 6c | 2,113$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.3 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe049…1999backed Yes | 7c | 2,059$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.59 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 8c | 1,744$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked No | 48c | 1,597$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.59 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +89%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x174a…f2cebacked Yes | 15c | 1,500$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 24c | 1,424$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.34 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,387$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.39 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…e621backed Yes | 14c | 1,180$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 2c | 1,150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 33c | 1,132$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4955…5a28backed Yes | 4c | 1,105$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf13…7889backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…a73cbacked Yes | 32c | 999.47$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.83 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 797.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 43c | 710.93$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 677.01$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b9…a48bbacked Yes | 10c | 673.7$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…69dcbacked Yes | 25c | 665.31$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…6192backed Yes | 16c | 645.09$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 54c | 531.95$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 5c | 447.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 30c | 419$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.27 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcada…1fb5backed Yes | 5c | 408.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 19c | 386.82$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 379.01$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.87 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 20c | 377.1$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab3…6ac3backed Yes | 15c | 344.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 339.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 56cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked No | 19c | 299.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab20…65fabacked No | 51c | 279$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ef…5191backed Yes | 8c | 232.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d7…676fbacked Yes | 10c | 225$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +372.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…a0a4backed Yes | 46c | 222.47$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 36c | 218.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 18c | 205.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf420…cf06backed Yes | 51c | 197.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad5…8f07backed Yes | 21c | 188.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 69c | 185.04$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…c0eebacked No | 51c | 160$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…90c0backed Yes | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yes | 24c | 154.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf435…ed60backed Yes | 40c | 146.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…5aabbacked Yes | 34c | 140$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 43c | 123.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 20c | 116.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 42c | 111.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4663…457abacked No | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e3…130fbacked Yes | 51c | 103.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…edb4backed No | 59c | 101.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…2f6ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…3ef3backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…6ea2backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…28e2backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 42c | 95.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d00…d4b4backed Yes | 72c | 91.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…2460backed No | 66c | 90.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59c…115bbacked Yes | 16c | 87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f0…6af7backed Yes | 44c | 86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 20c | 76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x578c…e85fbacked No | 51c | 68.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…2effbacked No | 42c | 66.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6338…02a1backed Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf153…c7a1backed No | 59c | 65.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…c556backed Yes | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…bdb3backed Yes | 44c | 63.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 19c | 61.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe135…7f76backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe959…75cbbacked Yes | 49c | 57.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bf…15ffbacked No | 59c | 57.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…b90fbacked Yes | 42c | 56.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a2…f9d8backed Yes | 42c | 55.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed Yes | 59c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x421c…3dd7backed No | 59c | 53.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a56…75b6backed Yes | 50c | 53.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7985…59fbbacked No | 51c | 52.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…1a78backed Yes | 44c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…da9bbacked No | 59c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…b972backed No | 76c | 51.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d69…cf4abacked No | 59c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C?this page
- Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C?No won
- Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C?Yes won
- Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.35-1.39°C?No won
- Will the November 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.39°C?No won
- Will the November 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.20°C?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.