TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x05d7…676f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
137
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 54 out of 100; worst Champions League at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT9625%24 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+36.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 96 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$129.99
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$57.4
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$26.6
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$467Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$466.72
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$126
Jazz vs. Nuggetsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.02
Warriors vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$200.23
Clippers vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.1
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT+334.8%+$334.95
Rockets vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$84
Pacers vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.5
Clippers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.31
Wizards vs. Knicksbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.07
Bucks vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.17
Nuggets vs. Warriorsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$284.9
Lakers vs. Nuggetsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Mavericks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$96.52
Wizards vs. Pistonsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.49
Trail Blazers vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+88.7%+$89.3
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$200.2
Thunder vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST-100%-$100.09
Heat vs. Cavaliersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST-100%-$100.1
76ers vs. Timberwolvesbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST-100%-$14.4
Hawks vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$300.69
Showing 25 of 96 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2025, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+105.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2025, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-59.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Browns vs. Ravensbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Cowboys vs. Eaglesbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$610Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST-100%-$609.63
49ers vs. Packersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST-100%-$119
Cardinals vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST+143.9%+$171.09
Vikings vs. Titansbacked Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$201.4
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$102
All 6 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2024, EST450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+86.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Senators vs. Flamesbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+300%+$94
Ducks vs. Senatorsbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$99.89
Flyers vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST+244.8%+$66.78
Sharks vs. Panthersbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST-100%-$63.53
All 4 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2024, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2024, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick6cpaid+372.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Sep 13, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Louisiana vs. Missouribacked Louisiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
North Texas vs. Texas Statebacked North Texas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$100.1
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Joni Ernst be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$24.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$203.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$48
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.