TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Man City win on 2024-11-09?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$198,042
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$198,099

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,042 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 333 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6bad…9777backed Yes57c28,000$15,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,96010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f47…af93backed No44c27,571$12,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,445.647437.8%28 W · 46 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked No43c20,251$8,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,600.7840254.7%220 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee5f…9a8bbacked Yes56c17,978$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95cc…7f08backed No44c16,994$7,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,546.483650%18 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff0…46e3backed No60c15,651$9,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,309.469361.3%57 W · 36 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9478…63f5backed No44c12,850$5,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,251.045959.3%35 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4b46…db60backed Yes58c12,671$7,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,351.041450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes41c9,081$3,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,738.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fa3…dc66backed Yes55c7,000$3,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,850933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+20.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No45c5,754$2,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,164.4516848.8%82 W · 86 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0fd…a7dabacked No45c5,556$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,055.561080%8 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+61.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed No42c4,921$2,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,869.7914659.6%87 W · 59 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Yes59c4,822$2,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,829.652433.3%8 W · 16 L-5.1wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-43.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Yes9c4,442$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.5237841.8%158 W · 220 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a6b…57c5backed Yes1c2,930$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a1b…7b38backed Yes57c2,861$1,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,634.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95cd…32d0backed No43c2,820$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,607.155554.5%30 W · 25 L+10.6wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+60.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd2fd…541dbacked Yes56c2,674$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.57812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-73.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3dcd…165cbacked Yes56c2,650$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked No30c2,516$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,768.2429643.6%129 W · 167 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No43c2,309$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.7722744.5%101 W · 126 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca95…fc40backed No43c2,236$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.483551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc441…92eabacked Yes56c2,087$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.84540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No44c2,000$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.9568026.3%179 W · 501 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1450…7603backed Yes56c1,786$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7feb…6be7backed Yes57c1,726$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes31c1,513$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47018433.7%62 W · 122 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb20…a151backed No43c1,500$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8555742.1%24 W · 33 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+24.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed No35c1,500$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.9932158.9%189 W · 132 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02cb…ae38backed Yes62c1,417$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.715554.8%85 W · 70 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7569…79ebbacked Yes56c1,300$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.931154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x393b…06c0backed Yes56c1,250$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b9…5bb9backed Yes54c1,208$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.2430%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x306b…3ec5backed Yes35c1,167$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.761936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3456…3f87backed Yes59c1,031$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.35333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cb5…98f8backed Yes56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9595…1b16backed Yes55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5506360.3%38 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5231…1f75backed Yes57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Yes57c966.48$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55019652%102 W · 94 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad1…c838backed No44c907.71$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed Yes56c900$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5046440.6%26 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a0…3d33backed Yes56c892.88$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.01130%0 W · 13 L-6.0wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xe95b…9d2fbacked Yes58c887.66$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.82933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefce…f0e7backed Yes57c883.3$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001560%9 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe803…8efbbacked Yes58c876.11$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5071323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c64…d9e5backed Yes58c870.69$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5052751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfd9…b9bcbacked Yes58c869.05$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4efd…2459backed Yes58c863.12$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c3…3128backed No46c860.29$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.56475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+33%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed No44c811.43$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.46959.4%41 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3764…e02abacked Yes57c775.25$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.89714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ca…09a4backed Yes56c753$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.682142.9%9 W · 12 L-4.9wins-0.23per pick66cpaid-37.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4b84…c074backed Yes55c727.27$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe793…0781backed Yes56c723.71$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No44c703.97$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.2231944.5%142 W · 177 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0692…10fbbacked Yes56c700$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3891921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick40cpaid-39.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed Yes55c684.17$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.415337.3%57 W · 96 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Yes56c664.21$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.2425648%123 W · 133 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cd3…3c5abacked Yes58c648.58$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3741838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe591…d8a5backed Yes57c643.79$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.96520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-73.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Yes34c631.35$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.0219743.7%86 W · 111 L+32.4wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+142.5%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x05ad…72d7backed Yes57c622.49$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.385641.1%23 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1464…c83fbacked Yes56c609.29$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.671127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d10…8e5fbacked Yes55c569.09$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99c2…ef35backed No41c566.95$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.55959.3%35 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes56c539.07$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30017234.3%59 W · 113 L+0.5wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd9…1095backed No43c534.99$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.146752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe392…1c24backed Yes56c533$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Yes60c496.66$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2988633.7%29 W · 57 L-14.7wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-36.3%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No31c489.04$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.9234251.8%177 W · 165 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01a9…f42fbacked Yes77c480.84$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.432437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-30.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc31d…bef2backed Yes57c472.53$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.2330%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x834e…8015backed Yes62c448$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.763855.3%21 W · 17 L+6.4wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+102.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9b14…d18cbacked Yes56c444$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.935633.9%19 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b7a…f6dbbacked Yes74c360.59$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.914438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x484c…017ebacked Yes57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002725.9%7 W · 20 L-5.9wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-39.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked No45c342.54$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.48145.7%37 W · 44 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xacb5…aeb9backed Yes57c330$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.1850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e20…cfdebacked Yes59c311.64$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d7…676fbacked Yes18c300.57$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.45633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+105.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154429.5%13 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-4.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe68c…23cebacked Yes56c300$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6451…025fbacked Yes56c283.49$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1586230.6%19 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0101…99afbacked Yes56c280.36$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd69c…645bbacked Yes56c273.21$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0d…077dbacked Yes55c273.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes55c272.58$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9229044.8%130 W · 160 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6176…9179backed Yes57c268.94$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.330%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x48b5…10aebacked Yes56c267.86$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x278c…0fbdbacked No78c258.35$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.581361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dbc…7c66backed Yes58c258$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed No45c256.25$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.9456453.9%304 W · 260 L+27.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe174…f74bbacked Yes55c249.98$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.491136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12b5…18ecbacked Yes57c244.7$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed No22c241.65$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.6328355.5%157 W · 126 L+17.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x637d…2392backed Yes56c241.54$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.263826.3%10 W · 28 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-33.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x45fe…edecbacked Yes58c237.72$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.43per pick63cpaid-70.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x859b…f48bbacked Yes56c230.21$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.31742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bab…50aabacked Yes55c226.95$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.828365.1%54 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.