Weather · resolved market
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x242cae40e31fe67f49a98530c0d7ef59e9c7705caa47039128f0a35871912223
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $246,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $248,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $246,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 45c | 19,828$8,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,894.93 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 8c | 8,120$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.47 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 9c | 4,432$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.42 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 3,638$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,381.31 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Yes | 39c | 3,592$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,198.23 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 35c | 3,176$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,071.26 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 53c | 2,774$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.01 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 42c | 2,445$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.64 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 39c | 2,424$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.38 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…fe1abacked No | 3c | 2,100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1680…e81bbacked No | 48c | 1,992$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…ae3abacked Yes | 60c | 1,925$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.42 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…69dcbacked Yes | 18c | 1,823$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 53c | 1,792$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.44 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…e880backed Yes | 53c | 1,739$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 54c | 1,421$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…148cbacked Yes | 57c | 1,417$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 45c | 1,303$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.72 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 25c | 1,167$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.17 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked Yes | 48c | 1,101$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.46 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +89%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…a73cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.83 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…a2cdbacked No | 61c | 941.02$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 906.74$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed No | 9c | 834.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 55c | 822$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d7…676fbacked Yes | 7c | 818.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +372.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…e22bbacked No | 4c | 751.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 37c | 725.63$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.14 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…c2f4backed Yes | 33c | 708.91$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.59 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4955…5a28backed No | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 9c | 561.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 18c | 560.51$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.61 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2d…dde5backed Yes | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 7c | 450$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 70c | 445$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 14c | 439.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 51c | 427.71$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe135…7f76backed No | 21c | 411.27$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 57c | 396.24$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.96 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 30c | 383.32$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.62 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 16c | 375.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed No | 8c | 365.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 55c | 361.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 43c | 345.31$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.62 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b78…a88abacked Yes | 48c | 330.73$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.42 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe570…a469backed No | 42c | 323.26$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…c013backed Yes | 16c | 309$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +518%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…54e9backed No | 9c | 305$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 76c | 300$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c31…633cbacked No | 48c | 286.51$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc726…c39abacked No | 71c | 250$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…2d33backed Yes | 80c | 241.84$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f2…c208backed No | 80c | 226$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe049…1999backed No | 6c | 215.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4663…457abacked Yes | 68c | 200$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed No | 55c | 200$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c75…573fbacked Yes | 57c | 176.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…1af8backed Yes | 44c | 174.86$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…cf47backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…5cddbacked Yes | 21c | 165.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 59c | 161.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a77…6502backed Yes | 56c | 160.71$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309b…f2febacked Yes | 33c | 149.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…2f6ebacked Yes | 14c | 147$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 76c | 114.53$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 31c | 112.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.34 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 32c | 111.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x925a…3e7fbacked Yes | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 56cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…6ea2backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab2f…179abacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8764…17adbacked No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…3a51backed Yes | 22c | 92.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed Yes | 31c | 85.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed0…eaa0backed Yes | 56c | 84.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f4…efc2backed No | 45c | 79.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…2ba6backed No | 14c | 78.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…ba13backed No | 46c | 75.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b7…e429backed Yes | 60c | 74.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 42c | 74.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yes | 70c | 74.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…179abacked Yes | 57c | 70.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…c556backed Yes | 38c | 64.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 61c | 62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 42c | 60.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d00…d4b4backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0aa…e435backed No | 46c | 50.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…d6f9backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed No | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…f9d6backed Yes | 60c | 48.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…d8b9backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…e2f0backed Yes | 48c | 40.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb0…64c0backed Yes | 46c | 37.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x221f…fe96backed No | 48c | 37.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd041…73cbbacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…1430backed Yes | 46c | 28.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x010f…7ddfbacked Yes | 70c | 23.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C?this page
- Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C?No won
- Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C?No won
- Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.35-1.39°C?No won
- Will the November 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.39°C?No won
- Will the November 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.20°C?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.