Weather · resolved market
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.20°C?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0b0c6d7795453a6c2da700496583354384f012b79c53e98bc2d7fa91586348e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $595,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $404,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $595,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 0c | 217,282$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.38 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…c2f4backed Yes | 1c | 80,101$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.66 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…54e9backed Yes | 1c | 43,449$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.11 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 22,619$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.01 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…1af8backed Yes | 3c | 21,249$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.04 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…dfc1backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 1c | 15,489$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.45 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…fe1abacked Yes | 3c | 14,611$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.61 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 8,951$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.17 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 0c | 7,809$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174a…f2cebacked Yes | 1c | 7,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…f310backed Yes | 1c | 5,583$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,190$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.77 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4955…5a28backed Yes | 1c | 5,117$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 4,068$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…b81cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,605$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…90febacked Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…e621backed Yes | 1c | 2,017$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5512…5941backed Yes | 1c | 1,651$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 5c | 1,601$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6e…ab49backed Yes | 6c | 1,014$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…5b4cbacked Yes | 4c | 888.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3a…7c06backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…8cedbacked Yes | 6c | 474.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 2c | 452.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed Yes | 6c | 350$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 244.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…de35backed Yes | 5c | 194.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…d5acbacked Yes | 6c | 191.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the November 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.20°C?this page
- Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C?No won
- Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C?No won
- Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C?Yes won
- Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.35-1.39°C?No won
- Will the November 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.39°C?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.