TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump deportation executive order in first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$219,682
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$225,876

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,682 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9529…7c6abacked No8c18,160$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.891127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb702…e291backed No8c16,011$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.783737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No12c11,289$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.341238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd152…f201backed No13c7,758$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No3c5,175$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17815124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e6…beb9backed No11c4,546$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No9c3,900$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3408219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No11c3,804$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.2835519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No7c2,744$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.7521935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No3c2,591$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9516725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7713…4d5abacked No10c2,500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No3c2,500$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.52847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No8c1,839$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7332029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89c6…7961backed No9c1,500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid+10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1be3…74f2backed No8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x153b…68ddbacked No10c1,250$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.992133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+93%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd46b…76febacked No17c1,216$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.683531.4%11 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No15c1,174$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3813540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d4e…7033backed No9c1,096$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+111.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca00…2256backed No9c1,093$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.22per pick29cpaid-86.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x37d2…f302backed No15c1,000$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f5…c5f7backed No8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No7c999.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4641…5ce8backed No11c936.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda28…168ebacked No5c833.66$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No4c800.21$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.137533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed No10c782.83$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754122%9 W · 32 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-21.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x937b…27abbacked No9c768.18$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f19…c50bbacked No10c725.53$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.72922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-48%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf51…1eb6backed No22c693.54$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c14…a8f2backed No8c689.38$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5acb…80e6backed No10c621.77$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3e7…a536backed No16c617.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed No8c600.62$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.051717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9172…ee0abacked No7c570.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No3c565.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.653859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a1c…644dbacked No10c545.8$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7e…d8afbacked No7c543.09$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x705f…8814backed No9c542.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No11c540$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.417225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb92d…6882backed No22c513.06$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e8f…f9e9backed No10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503231.3%10 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked No3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153613.9%5 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick13cpaid-58.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81c0…156ebacked No4c466.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41eb…da1dbacked Yes78c460$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1012035%7 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6261…3d84backed No11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc811…0d9cbacked No6c424.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+316.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b5a…14bbbacked No12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70ba…b2c4backed No10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72c4…25bcbacked No13c386.78$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.48520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-50%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbabf…18e8backed No11c383.82$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2f…4f92backed No8c381.49$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dae…bf66backed No9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid+33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70ce…dd52backed No17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98ba…a7ffbacked No10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40d3…4e5ebacked No10c294.32$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-70.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa39b…fff1backed No11c282.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed No12c281$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.064126.8%11 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f7…3b24backed No11c272.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick15cpaid+31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ca5…fb42backed No11c241.54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bce…85fabacked No10c230.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.771421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-0.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No9c226.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4121022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2dc…091abacked No9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x712d…3d9abacked No10c204.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc395…5c8cbacked No7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f6d…0556backed No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86a5…5ac2backed No9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182030%6 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9937…258cbacked No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb66d…630dbacked No12c194.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2537…eea8backed No10c190.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+27%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked No7c172.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.53253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c27…5e47backed No9c166.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed No9c160$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4348.8%3 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+65%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc8…4cccbacked No8c154.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe900…6cdcbacked No10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154025%10 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8718…9201backed No8c149.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae96…3aeebacked No9c145.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8960…93fbbacked No15c130$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.650%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7454…4b78backed No11c127.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x274f…c70cbacked No16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3f3…bc87backed No8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ea1…ebb4backed No8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa984…1515backed No10c102.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfebb…877bbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101723.5%4 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-47.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc0d…bba0backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick51cpaid+67.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f5b…6759backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f14…f4c7backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x762b…dfdfbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd9a…c3a8backed No16c68.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ee…2a09backed Yes63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb555…e61bbacked Yes62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.44630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d7…676fbacked Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.