Us Politics · resolved market
Trump deportation executive order in first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a8029020e5886fc3f2fd51f952b39e467c1deb0e4e7775d2c6115ecb0737f7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $219,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $225,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked No | 8c | 18,160$1,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,513.89 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed No | 8c | 16,011$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.78 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 12c | 11,289$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.3 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd152…f201backed No | 13c | 7,758$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 3c | 5,175$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e6…beb9backed No | 11c | 4,546$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 9c | 3,900$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 11c | 3,804$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.28 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 7c | 2,744$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.75 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 3c | 2,591$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…4d5abacked No | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 3c | 2,500$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 8c | 1,839$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.73 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed No | 9c | 1,500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1be3…74f2backed No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…68ddbacked No | 10c | 1,250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +93%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…76febacked No | 17c | 1,216$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.68 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 15c | 1,174$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.38 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…7033backed No | 9c | 1,096$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca00…2256backed No | 9c | 1,093$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 29cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…f302backed No | 15c | 1,000$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…c5f7backed No | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 7c | 999.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4641…5ce8backed No | 11c | 936.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda28…168ebacked No | 5c | 833.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 4c | 800.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 10c | 782.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…27abbacked No | 9c | 768.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…c50bbacked No | 10c | 725.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf51…1eb6backed No | 22c | 693.54$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…a8f2backed No | 8c | 689.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5acb…80e6backed No | 10c | 621.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e7…a536backed No | 16c | 617.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 8c | 600.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9172…ee0abacked No | 7c | 570.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 3c | 565.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…644dbacked No | 10c | 545.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…d8afbacked No | 7c | 543.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…8814backed No | 9c | 542.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 11c | 540$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb92d…6882backed No | 22c | 513.06$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…f9e9backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81c0…156ebacked No | 4c | 466.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41eb…da1dbacked Yes | 78c | 460$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…3d84backed No | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc811…0d9cbacked No | 6c | 424.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5a…14bbbacked No | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ba…b2c4backed No | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c4…25bcbacked No | 13c | 386.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabf…18e8backed No | 11c | 383.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…4f92backed No | 8c | 381.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dae…bf66backed No | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…dd52backed No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ba…a7ffbacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d3…4e5ebacked No | 10c | 294.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa39b…fff1backed No | 11c | 282.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed No | 12c | 281$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…3b24backed No | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…fb42backed No | 11c | 241.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…85fabacked No | 10c | 230.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 9c | 226.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…091abacked No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712d…3d9abacked No | 10c | 204.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6d…0556backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a5…5ac2backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9937…258cbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66d…630dbacked No | 12c | 194.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2537…eea8backed No | 10c | 190.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked No | 7c | 172.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c27…5e47backed No | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed No | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc8…4cccbacked No | 8c | 154.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…9201backed No | 8c | 149.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae96…3aeebacked No | 9c | 145.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8960…93fbbacked No | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7454…4b78backed No | 11c | 127.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…c70cbacked No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f3…bc87backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea1…ebb4backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa984…1515backed No | 10c | 102.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfebb…877bbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…bba0backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f14…f4c7backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762b…dfdfbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9a…c3a8backed No | 16c | 68.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ee…2a09backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d7…676fbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.