Premier League · resolved market
Will Southampton vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x827c682c611d344da0052a5678303e1ce424f0a01e178c1989e8465989734e3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc760…fc85backed No | 79c | 140,000$110,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf890…4671backed Yes | 21c | 140,000$29,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 78c | 1,520$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.32 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Yes | 22c | 1,136$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 73c | 673.13$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.83 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 14c | 616$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.09 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0661…a72ebacked No | 79c | 577.3$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.23 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…af8cbacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 25%22 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480c…81f2backed Yes | 23c | 433.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…2391backed Yes | 38c | 333.49$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d7…676fbacked Yes | 20c | 324.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 68c | 202.34$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.27 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked No | 80c | 146.5$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed No | 78c | 109.45$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c37…4e9bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked No | 14c | 93.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219f…1113backed Yes | 22c | 72.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Yes | 44c | 54.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked No | 80c | 47.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 154 | 61%94 W · 60 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a3…c35bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked No | 77c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 69c | 19.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 213 | 53.1%113 W · 100 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Southampton vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-12?Yes won
- Will Southampton win on 2025-04-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.