Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal vs. Brentford end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50e40b06061321750d01db6fa49e23d083876f7f5b6af13063b8a6cfdca14d33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb024…1b23backed Yes | 23c | 10,002$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,701.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…ce4ebacked No | 77c | 10,002$7,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,701.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5463…8bbabacked Yes | 23c | 10,001$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,700.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +196.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2617…db91backed No | 77c | 10,000$7,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,700 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…0b9cbacked No | 77c | 10,000$7,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,700 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe527…3a20backed Yes | 23c | 10,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,700 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…fd93backed Yes | 23c | 9,998$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,698.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecde…2465backed No | 77c | 9,998$7,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,698.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b6…8dccbacked Yes | 23c | 9,996$2,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,696.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8078…12debacked No | 77c | 9,996$7,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,696.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +150%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 53c | 9,862$5,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,255.58 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Yes | 24c | 4,583$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,483.33 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 39c | 3,846$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.86 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Yes | 66c | 1,080$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.96 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 78c | 857.69$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.69 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed No | 48c | 856.62$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.58 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 26c | 793.65$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.65 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…ac75backed No | 10c | 730.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed Yes | 80c | 673.78$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.78 | 61 | 77%47 W · 14 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7a…201abacked Yes | 31c | 646.51$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +219.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed No | 78c | 602.56$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…2391backed Yes | 23c | 502.24$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.24 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480c…81f2backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 19c | 400$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d7…676fbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 12c | 386.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.53 | 270 | 24.8%67 W · 203 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 61c | 347.34$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.47 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…8938backed Yes | 63c | 319.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.84 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 76c | 316$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.16 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x530f…8714backed Yes | 38c | 245.91$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.73 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9968…a104backed Yes | 73c | 239.7$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…1ca6backed Yes | 55c | 208.32$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.74 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4db1…7a85backed Yes | 59c | 175$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked Yes | 61c | 155.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 35c | 141.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.78 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a3…c35bbacked Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…aa94backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 133 | 54.9%73 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 63c | 117$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 32c | 105$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…4130backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…6747backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c37…4e9bbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb0…30d3backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…9c14backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 77c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…9ce3backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6959…084fbacked Yes | 80c | 55.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…2f3bbacked Yes | 69c | 52.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 43c | 51.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…c3f5backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed No | 57c | 47.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x475d…eaaebacked Yes | 61c | 41.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 76c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02e…88d5backed Yes | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15f1…0593backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked No | 76c | 19.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal vs. Brentford end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-12?No won
- Will Brentford win on 2025-04-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.