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NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Warriors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Nuggets, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,127,725
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,166,018

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,127,725 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 551 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc1c9…96d9backed Nuggets41c112,776$45,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,014.072634.6%9 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa47a…fd11backed Nuggets69c100,765$69,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,569.445261.5%32 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1484…cafebacked Warriors15c68,013$10,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,201.929738.7%115 W · 182 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73cb…b0d0backed Warriors59c42,201$24,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,899.997647.4%36 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe0…d994backed Warriors71c31,261$22,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,237.9637448.7%182 W · 192 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Warriors46c27,140$12,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,493.0619152.4%100 W · 91 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd2bd…dce0backed Warriors66c24,802$16,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,338.1477745%350 W · 427 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked Warriors37c20,088$7,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,337.5133931.9%108 W · 231 L-28.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-37.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Warriors60c20,000$11,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,899.9959653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d9…2d2ebacked Nuggets48c19,444$9,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,039.93426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-51.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Warriors17c18,064$3,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,138.0570147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca21…b07cbacked Nuggets65c17,541$11,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,226.7122458.9%132 W · 92 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Warriors50c16,480$8,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,164.1830443.1%131 W · 173 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Warriors45c15,983$7,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,192.3580146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0851…5a31backed Nuggets49c15,196$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,795.81560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c1…0c29backed Warriors52c13,302$6,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,914.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d16…be0ebacked Nuggets45c13,242$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,241.93580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+55.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Nuggets24c13,096$3,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,913.581,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6094…3bd9backed Nuggets32c12,962$4,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,873.968536.5%31 W · 54 L+8.8wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+61.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7f1d…a4e1backed Warriors61c12,868$7,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,849.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dda…4cf6backed Nuggets74c10,685$7,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,811.243666.7%24 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Warriors39c10,000$3,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,946.261,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40e…a94dbacked Nuggets73c9,091$6,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,454.55650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Warriors61c9,000$5,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,449.9620047%94 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdae4…f140backed Warriors14c8,192$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b1…6f55backed Nuggets16c7,247$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,087.320238.6%78 W · 124 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Warriors63c6,874$4,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,354.495244.2%23 W · 29 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x40e3…0787backed Warriors47c6,865$3,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,207.7134532.8%113 W · 232 L-16.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked Nuggets30c6,808$2,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,766.3827163.5%172 W · 99 L+0.9wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Warriors74c6,735$5,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,015.7661345.5%279 W · 334 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a22…0bb4backed Nuggets39c6,550$2,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,995.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb928…5fd7backed Nuggets39c6,412$2,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,911.447451.4%38 W · 36 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55da…38ecbacked Nuggets39c6,313$2,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8471100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7239…6591backed Nuggets48c6,190$2,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,195.73636.1%13 W · 23 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-26.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c70…232abacked Nuggets41c6,017$2,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,571.75337.7%20 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Nuggets67c5,913$3,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.349849.4%246 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…3e11backed Warriors22c5,656$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.7422049.1%108 W · 112 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Warriors62c5,600$3,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,495.9262351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2863…0e3ebacked Warriors60c5,461$3,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,276.615741.4%65 W · 92 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Warriors52c5,133$2,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,645.5210926.6%29 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Nuggets46c4,937$2,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,671.8336247.2%171 W · 191 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Nuggets21c4,665$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,705.5641742%175 W · 242 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Warriors66c4,554$3,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,005.6970640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Warriors63c4,500$2,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,826.1225845%116 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0560…d77dbacked Nuggets18c4,500$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7006346%29 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7709…5852backed Nuggets54c4,287$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,986.7211229.5%33 W · 79 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…e599backed Warriors55c4,000$2,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.432330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5f…bf45backed Nuggets40c3,744$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,244.410533.3%35 W · 70 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Nuggets57c3,605$2,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.151,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Warriors67c3,543$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,369.5576249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…410ebacked Nuggets40c3,158$1,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,894.862653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+24.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Nuggets60c3,100$1,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25128347.7%135 W · 148 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Warriors74c3,097$2,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,292.049038.9%35 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Nuggets48c3,000$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5701,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Warriors51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.997051.4%36 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nuggets55c2,963$1,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.063,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x000f…fa77backed Nuggets59c2,946$1,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,193.672669.2%18 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce37…b17bbacked Warriors59c2,830$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.992540%10 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6dd…bf2bbacked Warriors55c2,800$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5504628.3%13 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x644c…8f6bbacked Warriors48c2,749$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.35145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Nuggets31c2,673$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,848.1673647.3%348 W · 388 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Warriors60c2,628$1,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,576.856945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0360…7be1backed Nuggets33c2,526$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,686.0711952.9%63 W · 56 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27d2…a66cbacked Nuggets49c2,474$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,261.6421450%107 W · 107 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Warriors61c2,415$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,466.2961835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Warriors56c2,333$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.0610244.1%45 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe59…a131backed Warriors60c2,332$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.3915365.4%100 W · 53 L-0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed Nuggets18c2,270$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,860.11,88837.3%704 W · 1,184 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Warriors44c2,247$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.255,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Nuggets37c2,131$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,342.5640627.8%113 W · 293 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ead…cf47backed Nuggets54c2,126$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.934050%20 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa27b…5d5cbacked Nuggets20c2,057$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,654.1720447.1%96 W · 108 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa822…64e6backed Nuggets16c2,000$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,68012334.1%42 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Warriors59c2,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18029858.7%175 W · 123 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Nuggets55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9001,29044%567 W · 723 L+35.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Nuggets30c1,992$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.3466744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2b8…b745backed Warriors31c1,912$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.391844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Nuggets68c1,912$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.845152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Warriors60c1,862$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.157347.9%35 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91ed…e60abacked Warriors14c1,860$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.615316.3%25 W · 128 L-10.3wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-43.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x93ca…d65ebacked Nuggets70c1,806$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.6625865.5%169 W · 89 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1187…cb53backed Nuggets33c1,794$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.979836.7%36 W · 62 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Warriors62c1,789$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.231,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed Nuggets40c1,750$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,05026640.2%107 W · 159 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x520a…ab8abacked Warriors50c1,700$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.4551037.5%191 W · 319 L+1.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87cf…25a4backed Warriors53c1,698$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002650%13 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b3…6ed8backed Nuggets63c1,692$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.5717256.4%97 W · 75 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe4f…5241backed Nuggets24c1,667$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.6715341.8%64 W · 89 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Nuggets25c1,653$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.971,02848.5%499 W · 529 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Warriors61c1,639$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00027848.9%136 W · 142 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5d2…317bbacked Warriors75c1,605$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.118354.1%99 W · 84 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d2a…ca37backed Warriors63c1,588$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008851.1%45 W · 43 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Nuggets39c1,577$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.6710246.1%47 W · 55 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7662…356bbacked Warriors60c1,570$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.3445743.3%198 W · 259 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Warriors61c1,562$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.3120153.7%108 W · 93 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Nuggets26c1,551$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.6137734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff7b…52a8backed Nuggets74c1,549$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.746747.8%32 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x221f…6be8backed Warriors63c1,500$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94529747.5%141 W · 156 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedd7…0356backed Nuggets38c1,500$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.3wins+0.37per pick52cpaid+73.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5d57…d7ffbacked Warriors62c1,499$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.38728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-58.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.