TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x87cf…25a4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
59
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Ncaa Basketball, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Ncaa Basketball at 51 out of 100; worst Europa Conference League at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2025, EDT2650%13 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. Sunsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Bulls vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$800
Nets vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$475Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+87.7%+$416.23
Knicks vs. Hornetsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$800
Cavaliers vs. Kingsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$800
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$940Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$940
Pistons vs. Heatbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+93.2%+$466.16
Mavericks vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+566.7%+$566.67
Rockets vs. Magicbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+98.2%+$785.88
Bucks vs. Warriorsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$600
Nets vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$900Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$300
Nuggets vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$900
Grizzlies vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+73.7%+$515.76
76ers vs. Rocketsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Heat vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+61.9%+$247.74
Thunder vs. Bucksbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT+49.6%+$248.22
Raptors vs. Trail Blazersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Hawks vs. Netsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Magic vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$400
Thunder vs. Pistonsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+70.9%+$567.13
Lakers vs. Nuggetsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Magic vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT+98.1%+$392.32
Pacers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Celtics vs. Heatbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+72.3%+$433.9
Kings vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+37%+$109.88
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2025, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bruins vs. Sharksbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$270
Avalanche vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$352.17
Islanders vs. Penguinsbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$489.47
Kings vs. Wildbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$600
Sabres vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Jets vs. Krakenbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$347.46
Golden Knights vs. Red Wingsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Predators vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$289.66
Devils vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT+56.6%+$339.45
Oilers vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Capitals vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+32.8%+$98.27
All 11 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2025, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Michigan vs. Texas A&Mbacked Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$127.27
Arkansas vs. St. John'sbacked St. John's · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$900
McNeese State vs. Purduebacked Purdue · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$122.54
Xavier vs. Illinoisbacked Illinois · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$477Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT+54%+$257.55
New Mexico vs. Marquettebacked Marquette · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Colorado State vs. Memphisbacked Memphis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Baylor vs. Mississippi Statebacked Baylor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+113.5%+$226.93
UC San Diego vs. Michiganbacked Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$226.32
High Point vs. Purduebacked Purdue · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$29.87
Creighton vs. Louisvillebacked Louisville · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 10 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2025, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.