TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Bucks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$769,628
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$770,616

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $769,628 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 386 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x644c…8f6bbacked Bucks1c130,918$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.535145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…3e11backed Bucks15c38,987$5,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,858.2122049.1%108 W · 112 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb6dd…bf2bbacked Bucks25c35,913$9,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,062.184628.3%13 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bucks25c33,362$8,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,485.83,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Thunder68c28,722$19,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,294.251457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40e3…0787backed Bucks15c24,383$3,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,775.8934532.8%113 W · 232 L-16.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Bucks1c24,176$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.298783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Thunder66c22,101$14,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,514.2162351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Bucks0c17,433$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.431,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Bucks34c15,000$5,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,091.551,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Bucks3c12,044$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.6434425.6%88 W · 256 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60cd…a1b6backed Bucks34c10,827$3,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,727.278251.2%42 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f66…8938backed Bucks27c10,361$2,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,789.5626431.8%84 W · 180 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Bucks34c8,100$2,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7541,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Thunder67c7,500$5,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,474.9929858.7%175 W · 123 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Bucks31c7,223$2,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,209.9336748.2%177 W · 190 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca21…b07cbacked Thunder70c5,543$3,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,656.0122458.9%132 W · 92 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ca…d65ebacked Thunder67c5,439$3,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,795.0225865.5%169 W · 89 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6094…3bd9backed Bucks31c5,272$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,625.668536.5%31 W · 54 L+8.8wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+61.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked Bucks17c5,043$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.3733931.9%108 W · 231 L-28.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-37.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Thunder64c5,038$3,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.781,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80a5…f9babacked Bucks31c4,861$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc254…b899backed Bucks10c4,185$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006121.3%13 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid+17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b1…6f55backed Bucks35c4,155$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,434.6820238.6%78 W · 124 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Bucks35c4,068$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,43523342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Bucks16c4,000$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6561,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Bucks38c3,763$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.6937734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Bucks34c3,721$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.3625536.9%94 W · 161 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Bucks33c3,620$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.612040.8%49 W · 71 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Thunder65c3,536$2,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,237.7510926.6%29 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d80…5fd8backed Thunder63c3,506$2,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,303.7130251.7%156 W · 146 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Bucks37c3,400$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.231,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2bd…dce0backed Bucks34c3,262$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.9377745%350 W · 427 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x938c…d5e5backed Bucks34c3,220$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.815237.5%57 W · 95 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x581e…4fd3backed Bucks8c3,151$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41f…e827backed Thunder74c3,138$2,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.11850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89b3…6ed8backed Thunder67c3,061$2,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.2717256.4%97 W · 75 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4dcd…b0ffbacked Thunder67c2,835$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.61080%8 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+25.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0560…d77dbacked Bucks33c2,805$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.366346%29 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Thunder71c2,745$1,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.2470640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb4…acb6backed Bucks27c2,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6751844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-34.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Bucks32c2,330$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.8556945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa09b…a0ffbacked Thunder67c2,131$1,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.348861.4%54 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Bucks10c2,080$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.447535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x698f…ae41backed Bucks10c2,046$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.96841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Bucks33c2,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65061345.5%279 W · 334 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4d5…fe48backed Bucks35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+32.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Bucks10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011019.1%21 W · 89 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Thunder63c2,000$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.381,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Bucks33c1,999$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.6723237.1%86 W · 146 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Bucks1c1,950$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217502%15 W · 735 L-3.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x221f…6be8backed Bucks18c1,886$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.929747.5%141 W · 156 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Thunder60c1,883$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.9396447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder64c1,807$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.612,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf65e…a55abacked Bucks29c1,777$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.24344.2%19 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1187…cb53backed Bucks36c1,734$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.199836.7%36 W · 62 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b6a…3eedbacked Bucks36c1,673$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.2927735.4%98 W · 179 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d80…219abacked Bucks30c1,643$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4997851.3%40 W · 38 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Bucks34c1,635$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.8813929.5%41 W · 98 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Thunder60c1,634$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.659868.4%67 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff7b…52a8backed Bucks16c1,600$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2526747.8%32 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2981…d5bebacked Thunder65c1,538$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.462475%18 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+28.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2fec…62f0backed Bucks35c1,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed0…77f7backed Thunder65c1,500$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.992560%15 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bcf…76e3backed Bucks2c1,471$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275127.5%14 W · 37 L+6.6wins+0.13per pick15cpaid+97.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Bucks33c1,459$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.7461835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Thunder67c1,434$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.325,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Thunder66c1,430$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.218448.9%90 W · 94 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Bucks36c1,312$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.621,02848.5%499 W · 529 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Thunder67c1,300$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.270153.5%375 W · 326 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Thunder65c1,300$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4554942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49b2…ffd0backed Bucks29c1,270$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.415613.5%21 W · 135 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb215…b819backed Bucks10c1,250$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12526124.1%63 W · 198 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7662…356bbacked Bucks36c1,218$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.1445743.3%198 W · 259 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5d2…317bbacked Bucks39c1,203$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.1418354.1%99 W · 84 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91ed…e60abacked Bucks13c1,149$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.8915316.3%25 W · 128 L-10.3wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-43.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf65e…3850backed Bucks33c1,120$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.4424336.2%88 W · 155 L-0.7wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf585…f019backed Thunder66c1,109$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.354148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Thunder68c1,104$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.488053.8%473 W · 407 L+52.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd31a…a098backed Thunder70c1,095$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.472835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ae7…4602backed Thunder67c1,066$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.791973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+28.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Thunder66c1,016$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.625845%116 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce37…b17bbacked Bucks32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3202540%10 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2c3…4d61backed Thunder66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3405347.2%25 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb26…94ddbacked Bucks6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010018%18 W · 82 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18f6…b00bbacked Thunder67c1,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33012752.8%67 W · 60 L-9.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x10ae…cb95backed Bucks30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30026049.2%128 W · 132 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8377…4198backed Bucks33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3305940.7%24 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Thunder68c939.74$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.1219535.4%69 W · 126 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44bc…c53ebacked Thunder78c926.59$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.0619149.7%95 W · 96 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Thunder76c925.09$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.2766744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadbe…bc55backed Thunder63c899.95$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.7350453.8%271 W · 233 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Bucks14c893.33$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.1336747.7%175 W · 192 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fed…fa70backed Bucks36c862.36$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.452853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x520a…ab8abacked Bucks36c800$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28851037.5%191 W · 319 L+1.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb433…3ad5backed Bucks34c788.49$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.594431.8%14 W · 30 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21bd…ae93backed Thunder65c769.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.2311259.8%67 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Bucks35c762.4$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.8419452.1%101 W · 93 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+26.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4be2…4664backed Thunder74c758.81$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87cf…25a4backed Thunder67c748.22$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.222650%13 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.