NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs. Wizards
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x293a66a4d6912a68c292c822ed053ea857029cf5d9d329430b222d75e1fa06be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Pacers, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $223,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $225,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Wizards | 0c | 18,955$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 339 | 31.9%108 W · 231 L | -28.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Wizards | 0c | 16,800$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 878 | 3%26 W · 852 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…3e11backed Wizards | 54c | 14,858$7,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,956.08 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards | 14c | 14,050$1,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,948.98 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…7484backed Wizards | 18c | 10,081$1,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Wizards | 15c | 10,030$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.58 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Wizards | 14c | 10,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 308 | 26.6%82 W · 226 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Wizards | 14c | 9,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…7bd8backed Wizards | 11c | 7,402$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.31 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Wizards | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Wizards | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 0%0 W · 335 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Pacers | 72c | 4,200$3,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165 | 1,197 | 46.7%559 W · 638 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Pacers | 51c | 3,588$1,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,753.26 | 736 | 47.3%348 W · 388 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Wizards | 15c | 3,400$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.61 | 283 | 41.7%118 W · 165 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Wizards | 15c | 3,200$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.99 | 618 | 35.4%219 W · 399 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…6440backed Wizards | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 469 | 28.4%133 W · 336 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Wizards | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 406 | 27.8%113 W · 293 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221f…6be8backed Wizards | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…c65dbacked Pacers | 22c | 2,555$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,992.9 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…356bbacked Wizards | 15c | 2,400$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 457 | 43.3%198 W · 259 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Wizards | 2c | 2,212$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 169 | 19.5%33 W · 136 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Wizards | 14c | 2,209$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Wizards | 13c | 2,100$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.59 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5523…51e9backed Pacers | 70c | 2,021$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.87 | 618 | 51.6%319 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…3d28backed Wizards | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 364 | 34.9%127 W · 237 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Wizards | 8c | 2,000$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Wizards | 1c | 1,948$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 376 | 27.9%105 W · 271 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x376d…3895backed Wizards | 15c | 1,913$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Pacers | 23c | 1,826$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.08 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cca…3620backed Wizards | 15c | 1,800$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Wizards | 14c | 1,507$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.35 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Wizards | 14c | 1,408$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.74 | 377 | 34%128 W · 249 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Wizards | 16c | 1,321$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.66 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Wizards | 2c | 1,198$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 364 | 23.4%85 W · 279 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Wizards | 14c | 1,192$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.88 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…56a3backed Wizards | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 321 | 30.2%97 W · 224 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520a…ab8abacked Wizards | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 510 | 37.5%191 W · 319 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…51d3backed Wizards | 18c | 742.9$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.22 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Wizards | 5c | 714.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Wizards | 14c | 700$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 140 | 41.4%58 W · 82 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…b659backed Wizards | 15c | 672.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…b24ebacked Wizards | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 29.8%48 W · 113 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Wizards | 14c | 628.57$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 166 | 17.5%29 W · 137 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27d1…43a0backed Wizards | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed Wizards | 17c | 600$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 407 | 26%106 W · 301 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Wizards | 14c | 571.52$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5087…c157backed Wizards | 14c | 492.86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafd1…639bbacked Wizards | 13c | 468.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Wizards | 13c | 463.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 463 | 42.5%197 W · 266 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x854f…00a7backed Wizards | 11c | 424.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 472 | 29.4%139 W · 333 L | -33.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards | 12c | 397.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…ffd0backed Wizards | 7c | 359.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 156 | 13.5%21 W · 135 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Wizards | 13c | 356.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cf…af78backed Wizards | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Wizards | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 855 | 42%359 W · 496 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ac…5e6ebacked Wizards | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -12.1wins | -0.17per pick | 20cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Wizards | 14c | 238$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…72b6backed Wizards | 13c | 215.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…2f92backed Wizards | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 199 | 44.7%89 W · 110 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Wizards | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…415ebacked Wizards | 13c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 316 | 31.6%100 W · 216 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee1f…9cedbacked Wizards | 16c | 197.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d7…676fbacked Wizards | 12c | 195.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Wizards | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 235 | 55.3%130 W · 105 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…9254backed Wizards | 14c | 121.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…3412backed Wizards | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…bf8cbacked Wizards | 16c | 108.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Wizards | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 718 | 23.3%167 W · 551 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e0…0578backed Wizards | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d5…9cc7backed Wizards | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Wizards | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb0…30d3backed Wizards | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Wizards | 15c | 98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Wizards | 14c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68b0…c482backed Wizards | 23c | 79.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Wizards | 14c | 79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9730…4504backed Wizards | 15c | 71.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd64a…2fa2backed Pacers | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 156 | 40.4%63 W · 93 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.