TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,846,310
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,928,771

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,846,310 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,901 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeba4…0d55backed Yes5c257,183$12,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,008.2760%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fd6…3b62backed Yes7c251,140$16,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,463.9100%0 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes6c238,974$14,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,401.8328341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x883e…31dfbacked Yes3c230,209$7,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,736.064910.2%5 W · 44 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93fc…34b6backed Yes7c171,169$11,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,953.864025%10 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-47.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc5f4…bc4fbacked Yes6c152,561$8,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,787.921526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-62.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Yes7c142,857$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0006435.9%23 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes3c137,795$3,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,967.211513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-47.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff48…b0ecbacked Yes3c130,000$4,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,389.991421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe818…4bb3backed Yes11c104,585$10,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,986.341040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes7c102,293$6,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,982.961,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14f4…3ce0backed Yes3c100,027$3,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,37550%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb540…b343backed Yes5c94,829$5,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,076.5395.1%2 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-79.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed Yes6c94,342$5,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,660.515628.6%16 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+104.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c93,937$4,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,246.32984.1%4 W · 94 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-61.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df0…48f0backed Yes7c89,030$6,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,128.21030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes3c85,820$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9003141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b6c…5ab5backed Yes0c83,000$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1444…69c0backed Yes3c73,849$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x830a…8ea8backed Yes4c60,824$2,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,711.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e47…ecf7backed Yes6c60,508$3,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,496.16820.6%14 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes5c57,278$2,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,886.835736.8%21 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes5c53,166$2,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,789.9431347%147 W · 166 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8aa…ae12backed Yes4c52,647$2,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,024.497829.5%23 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f5d…ecc3backed Yes5c52,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e44…e83fbacked Yes9c50,795$4,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,649.991136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed Yes7c50,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5007032.9%23 W · 47 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2d6…d648backed Yes6c43,545$2,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,488.161625%4 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc76c…2343backed Yes9c42,565$3,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,826.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed Yes5c42,478$2,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,076.1126640.2%107 W · 159 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3753…9cb5backed Yes3c38,869$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.15110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23e4…d4a3backed Yes5c38,554$1,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,927.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d5…60c2backed Yes5c38,545$1,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,927.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8b0…f559backed Yes5c38,440$1,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,922.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa431…ad26backed Yes5c38,420$1,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,920.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b50…75cabacked Yes5c38,300$1,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,91510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5639…e057backed Yes5c38,299$1,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,914.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea3…33f7backed Yes5c38,260$1,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,912.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21a7…0a76backed Yes5c38,255$1,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,912.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a0d…4052backed Yes5c38,238$1,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,911.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x925d…6d5cbacked Yes5c38,220$1,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,911.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc276…61c9backed Yes5c38,206$1,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,910.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa550…877cbacked Yes5c38,158$1,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,907.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e6a…d2c0backed Yes5c38,130$1,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,906.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x803f…3f3fbacked Yes5c38,128$1,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,906.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Yes3c38,119$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.961926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick18cpaid-27.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd4e…23c3backed Yes5c38,116$1,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,905.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d8f…71c2backed Yes5c38,107$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,905.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf89a…2241backed Yes5c38,097$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,904.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6171…cf2bbacked Yes5c38,090$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,904.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a8…2b0bbacked Yes5c38,063$1,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,903.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e7a…7dbbbacked Yes5c37,981$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb402…d0dfbacked Yes5c37,976$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…cb8dbacked Yes5c37,975$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bce…79f9backed Yes5c37,891$1,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,894.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d6…e801backed Yes5c37,854$1,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,892.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4cb…5784backed Yes5c37,824$1,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,891.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fee…d801backed Yes5c37,805$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,890.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee9…65dbbacked Yes5c37,794$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,889.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3427…329ebacked Yes5c37,788$1,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,889.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x099b…5016backed Yes5c37,772$1,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,888.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec6e…b7dfbacked Yes5c37,763$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,888.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cf1…0051backed Yes5c37,759$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,887.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd930…b740backed Yes5c37,754$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,887.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ca…0916backed Yes5c37,704$1,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,885.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d5f…4e6fbacked Yes5c37,678$1,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,883.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0147…a6cbbacked Yes5c37,677$1,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,883.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x744a…033bbacked Yes5c37,643$1,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,882.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaed7…861bbacked Yes5c37,629$1,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,881.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2b2…8af6backed Yes5c37,627$1,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,881.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4190…5d09backed Yes5c37,591$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,879.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c44…f052backed Yes5c37,582$1,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,879.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97c3…1005backed Yes5c37,575$1,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,878.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38ee…5419backed Yes5c37,561$1,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,878.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81ec…0e18backed Yes5c37,556$1,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,877.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85b0…b960backed Yes5c37,551$1,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,877.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c9…b054backed Yes5c37,538$1,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,876.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b87…2795backed Yes5c37,531$1,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,876.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd824…08cfbacked Yes5c37,522$1,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,876.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1560…9f74backed Yes5c37,474$1,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,873.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f08…ea9dbacked Yes5c37,463$1,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,873.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b2a…1cf9backed Yes5c37,451$1,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,872.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb202…cdddbacked Yes5c37,438$1,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,871.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28d0…d81ebacked Yes5c37,433$1,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,871.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e5…d256backed Yes5c37,421$1,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,871.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb145…37aabacked Yes5c37,398$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,869.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x331b…148fbacked Yes5c37,389$1,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,869.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd668…3f4abacked Yes5c37,372$1,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,868.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f71…6430backed Yes5c37,370$1,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,868.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x949c…feecbacked Yes5c37,354$1,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,867.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31c9…876abacked Yes5c37,348$1,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,867.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2f5…9aa6backed Yes5c37,325$1,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,866.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9291…29a0backed Yes5c37,314$1,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,865.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0396…66ebbacked Yes5c37,299$1,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,864.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e26…588bbacked Yes5c37,296$1,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,864.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e01…65f8backed Yes5c37,295$1,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,864.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde2…7d3ebacked Yes5c37,291$1,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,864.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6398…b71cbacked Yes5c37,275$1,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,863.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x157a…b8dfbacked Yes5c37,267$1,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,863.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44ee…cdd4backed Yes5c37,256$1,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,862.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.