TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$154,220,300
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,495,105

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,220,300 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,087 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07e7…a343backed Yes0c5,597,949$15,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,197.922615.4%4 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-75.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes1c4,011,260$22,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,428.71110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf541…74f7backed Yes1c1,696,846$11,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,816.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cdd…a653backed Yes1c1,129,439$5,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,647.191216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-51.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c1,033,966$3,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,031.561978.6%17 W · 180 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes0c877,115$3,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,508.465020%10 W · 40 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-44.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefbb…65e8backed Yes0c699,995$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.99563.6%2 W · 54 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-94.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x980e…7e06backed Yes0c516,383$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.53535.7%3 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-56.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c499,992$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.981827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-60.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes1c464,499$2,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,758427.1%3 W · 39 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-84.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aaf…72d0backed Yes1c431,441$3,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,451.53425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-55.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0494…cbd1backed Yes1c369,257$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2961…cf17backed Yes1c369,232$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbec3…ac5dbacked Yes1c369,215$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b4d…6567backed Yes1c369,176$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c91…305ebacked Yes1c369,176$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aae…c6b1backed Yes1c369,153$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e0…97bfbacked Yes1c369,137$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6643…f869backed Yes1c369,043$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf482…5880backed Yes1c369,043$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe251…7d6ebacked Yes1c369,020$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e29…d97cbacked Yes1c368,995$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,844.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd494…29ecbacked Yes1c368,966$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,844.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb4…9e67backed Yes1c368,858$1,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,844.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe014…1542backed Yes1c368,780$1,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,843.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011a…64fabacked Yes1c368,758$1,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,843.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba8…2e12backed Yes1c368,711$1,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,843.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e04…1156backed Yes1c366,670$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,833.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec6f…b2a1backed Yes1c364,954$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,824.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda69…6565backed Yes1c364,933$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,824.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfecc…e6b3backed Yes1c364,906$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,824.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc728…8f69backed Yes1c364,856$1,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,824.28771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick43cpaid+43%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4864…8af4backed Yes1c359,824$1,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.1230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d19…4722backed Yes1c359,657$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.2830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06c8…9827backed Yes1c359,608$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.0430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c8…99e6backed Yes1c359,520$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,797.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c68…1899backed Yes1c359,437$1,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,797.1930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd541…550fbacked Yes1c359,255$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,796.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5da…cdd6backed Yes1c359,250$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,796.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c44…d796backed Yes1c359,200$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,796366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+45.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4aa…e2cdbacked Yes1c359,192$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,795.9630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaab…ecdcbacked Yes1c359,136$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,795.6830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x684b…dd22backed Yes1c359,129$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,795.6430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea45…de53backed Yes1c359,129$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,795.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4950…f32ebacked Yes1c359,073$1,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,795.3730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x491b…bf4dbacked Yes1c359,045$1,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,795.2230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa299…e7d0backed Yes1c358,829$1,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,794.1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e40…0ae1backed Yes1c358,362$1,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.8130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f5…c6bdbacked Yes1c358,362$1,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.8130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x805f…a20dbacked Yes1c358,362$1,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.8130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe11f…25a5backed Yes1c358,340$1,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2057…52d6backed Yes1c358,306$1,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.5330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03fc…0393backed Yes1c358,306$1,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.5330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed3…e512backed Yes1c358,306$1,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.5330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85bb…6e15backed Yes1c358,306$1,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.5330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4040…acd6backed Yes1c358,279$1,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.3930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a5a…52b3backed Yes1c358,230$1,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,791.1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa556…347fbacked Yes1c357,804$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76d8…9843backed Yes1c357,804$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74c3…67b7backed Yes1c357,804$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2092…5f7fbacked Yes1c357,312$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,786.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d8c…a8cabacked Yes1c355,274$1,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,776.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b98…9c1dbacked Yes1c354,939$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,774.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0da2…7b8dbacked Yes1c354,891$1,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,774.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed4f…7a26backed Yes1c354,492$1,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18af…b22cbacked Yes1c354,492$1,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66d9…4282backed Yes1c354,439$1,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0269…0f95backed Yes1c354,409$1,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1afe…06c4backed Yes1c354,352$1,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,771.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f33…5fb9backed Yes1c354,338$1,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,771.6930%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb78b…85c8backed Yes1c354,284$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,771.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe567…2e28backed Yes1c354,262$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,771.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f76…5e56backed Yes1c354,217$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,771.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf494…691fbacked Yes1c354,129$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,770.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f1a…8057backed Yes1c354,129$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,770.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9c5…9a83backed Yes1c353,935$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661c…ba1abacked Yes1c353,932$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac3a…99b8backed Yes1c353,884$1,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd152…f201backed Yes1c353,475$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,775.37130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…cda3backed Yes1c353,049$1,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,765.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f92…2a9abacked Yes1c352,575$1,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.8830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcca7…bc5dbacked Yes1c352,549$1,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.7430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x554b…bb73backed Yes1c352,549$1,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.7430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x593c…1c79backed Yes1c352,549$1,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.7430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7292…e87fbacked Yes1c352,549$1,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.7430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ec6…2fdfbacked Yes1c352,549$1,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.7430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18d0…76edbacked Yes1c352,523$1,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.6130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dce…06f6backed Yes1c352,523$1,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.6130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5be…a462backed Yes1c352,454$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.2730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc545…55b2backed Yes1c352,399$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2ea…e885backed Yes1c352,399$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7da6…3dc4backed Yes1c352,399$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a8…a30ebacked Yes1c352,399$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23c5…2d53backed Yes1c352,399$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf201…f365backed Yes1c352,399$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95ac…b953backed Yes1c352,093$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760.4630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2865…ad41backed Yes1c352,093$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760.4630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1838…ccdbbacked Yes1c352,093$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760.4630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2926…00fbbacked Yes1c352,069$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760.3430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb53f…452fbacked Yes1c352,069$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760.3430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.