TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,654,093
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,469,080

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,654,093 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 436 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07e7…a343backed Yes0c1,569,302$3,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,138.62615.4%4 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-75.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes0c1,297,836$4,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,650.913929.5%41 W · 98 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes1c389,448$3,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,604.978521.2%18 W · 67 L-0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid+33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes1c346,390$1,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,958.88326.3%2 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+124.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c299,998$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001978.6%17 W · 180 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Yes0c127,452$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.6225836.8%95 W · 163 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes0c125,377$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.753350%0 W · 335 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed Yes1c117,914$1,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420.823330.3%10 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c111,335$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.771550%0 W · 155 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed1…f3a5backed Yes1c84,115$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.74022.5%9 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d1…8f86backed Yes1c76,147$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.7490%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes1c69,033$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.58427.1%3 W · 39 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-84.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c63,817$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.098827.3%24 W · 64 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3456…8803backed Yes0c60,900$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes0c60,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15061740.7%251 W · 366 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1b…c036backed Yes1c57,833$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.83730%0 W · 73 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0727…2c6bbacked Yes0c56,000$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b8…997bbacked Yes0c55,873$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.62450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24df…9598backed Yes0c54,640$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes1c52,766$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.83110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbb…65e8backed Yes0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200563.6%2 W · 54 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-94.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes1c43,360$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.523525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid+115.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbc7…dc23backed Yes1c37,960$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf0…6215backed Yes0c37,899$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.6150%0 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d15…17c8backed Yes0c36,667$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0871…96a2backed Yes1c35,955$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.37110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7331…65e6backed Yes0c34,035$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38b6…d6b8backed Yes0c33,980$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x102e…6a99backed Yes0c33,930$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x445b…417cbacked Yes0c33,830$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1754…3286backed Yes0c33,820$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6725…56d1backed Yes0c33,800$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4c…2a1fbacked Yes0c33,750$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914d…467ebacked Yes0c33,740$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1d6…9fa0backed Yes0c33,720$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb51…c45dbacked Yes0c33,715$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5d…0475backed Yes0c33,670$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x513b…df4abacked Yes0c33,590$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89bf…fe33backed Yes0c33,590$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c78…c7edbacked Yes0c33,580$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe020…5215backed Yes0c33,560$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9000…c57bbacked Yes0c33,500$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19a8…bd3bbacked Yes0c33,490$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb011…4b9cbacked Yes0c33,460$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3aa…1666backed Yes0c33,460$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae87…817ebacked Yes0c33,455$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe27…6f94backed Yes0c33,410$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d8…4debbacked Yes0c33,410$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd76…8fe5backed Yes0c33,310$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f1…059fbacked Yes0c33,300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0712…1ae7backed Yes0c33,290$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d10…0fa6backed Yes0c33,280$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2431…a939backed Yes0c33,270$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7081…98bbbacked Yes0c33,250$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ab…3cacbacked Yes0c33,250$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa6…a0a5backed Yes0c33,245$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cec…250cbacked Yes0c33,230$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2133…35c6backed Yes0c33,210$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd309…031cbacked Yes0c33,190$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7097…c39fbacked Yes0c33,160$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd439…ab74backed Yes0c33,150$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc8…5c2ebacked Yes0c33,120$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19c8…a491backed Yes0c33,070$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3847…f4e8backed Yes0c33,040$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc271…0afbbacked Yes0c33,040$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1857…c0cebacked Yes1c32,995$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.51260%0 W · 26 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f15…d749backed Yes0c32,930$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc72…21b5backed Yes0c32,930$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…8eeabacked Yes0c32,920$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadb1…4998backed Yes0c32,910$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c32,904$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.022130.5%1 W · 212 L+0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5288…fb55backed Yes0c32,890$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25dd…5c93backed Yes0c32,880$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe523…daddbacked Yes0c32,820$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17a7…7af6backed Yes0c32,810$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa358…ac82backed Yes0c32,790$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd31d…5140backed Yes0c32,730$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f3c…1dacbacked Yes0c32,670$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x475a…ebc2backed Yes0c32,670$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a9f…ce5dbacked Yes0c32,580$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x443b…2d00backed Yes0c32,570$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x524b…ab12backed Yes0c32,560$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd92…1c94backed Yes0c32,470$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2246…d7d0backed Yes0c32,450$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a8c…b47dbacked Yes0c32,440$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb159…fb83backed Yes0c32,430$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea7b…1ee5backed Yes0c32,420$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd833…6205backed Yes0c32,410$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b7…a157backed Yes0c32,370$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ef…d534backed Yes0c32,360$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6853…9e1dbacked Yes0c32,360$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b04…6ebabacked Yes0c32,330$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x016d…2be8backed Yes0c32,290$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b7…05bebacked Yes0c32,280$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b0b…7112backed Yes0c32,240$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bfe…e1d5backed Yes0c32,230$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa746…68e9backed Yes0c32,230$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb802…a0eabacked Yes0c32,195$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…982fbacked Yes0c32,190$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bad…21cbbacked Yes0c32,170$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.