TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,930,042
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,158,963

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,930,042 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,011 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes7c528,681$39,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,284.0228341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49d5…f347backed Yes7c388,999$26,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,664.941618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-51.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes6c218,599$12,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,915.781513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-47.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Yes8c203,729$16,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,435.916435.9%23 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fd6…3b62backed Yes8c165,951$13,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,818.52100%0 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x201f…edd1backed Yes9c158,333$14,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,552.26933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes8c156,387$12,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,955.9331347%147 W · 166 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed Yes2c123,613$2,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,271.895628.6%16 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+104.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb540…b343backed Yes8c85,710$6,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,496.47395.1%2 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-79.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes7c83,791$5,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,844.89326.3%2 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+124.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x883e…31dfbacked Yes5c73,982$3,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,398.924910.2%5 W · 44 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes4c71,457$2,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,511.663525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid+115.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1484…cafebacked Yes2c67,170$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.2829738.7%115 W · 182 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3df0…48f0backed Yes7c67,018$4,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,613.11030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…23dfbacked Yes4c56,689$2,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,548.43185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-84.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12dc…e4dabacked Yes9c55,000$5,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,11510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd273…de7ebacked Yes7c54,307$4,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,018.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4281…68fcbacked Yes7c54,000$3,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,99610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcce0…b6d5backed Yes8c54,000$4,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,21210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb30d…5e4cbacked Yes7c54,000$3,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,94210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ce5…318ebacked Yes7c54,000$3,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,995.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a37…90fdbacked Yes7c54,000$3,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,996250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5022…16bfbacked Yes7c54,000$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,049.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb07e…ab3dbacked Yes6c53,000$3,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,28610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d4…0498backed Yes7c53,000$3,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,65710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5155…1c4dbacked Yes6c53,000$3,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,28610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98fe…7387backed Yes7c53,000$3,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,81610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4347…a636backed Yes6c53,000$3,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,23310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a16…27a3backed Yes6c53,000$3,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9811…5de5backed Yes7c52,828$3,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,748.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e38…b69abacked Yes2c51,000$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d76…3f05backed Yes2c51,000$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x898b…8d76backed Yes7c50,956$3,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,438.5717943.6%78 W · 101 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c70…232abacked Yes11c46,118$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0005337.7%20 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…757abacked Yes4c44,089$1,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,584.99185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+178%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc254…b899backed Yes2c40,912$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.846121.3%13 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid+17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9128…4a0ebacked Yes8c40,643$3,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,436.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb60…0ed0backed Yes7c40,013$2,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,957.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3a…6cd3backed Yes9c39,179$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes6c38,898$2,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,244.4113133.6%44 W · 87 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes2c37,027$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.43175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-77%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b8…f9a4backed Yes6c35,458$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.67812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-74.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x176d…4a26backed Yes4c35,040$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes5c33,683$1,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.426113.1%8 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes6c33,171$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.78387.9%3 W · 35 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Yes7c31,318$2,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,153.8924554.7%134 W · 111 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x838c…5c82backed Yes9c30,470$2,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,698.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Yes9c28,142$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40023342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes4c26,941$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.522646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b31…b02dbacked Yes6c25,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-78.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd1…1798backed Yes7c25,000$1,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,663728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+176.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed16…ad27backed Yes8c24,679$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf0…6215backed Yes8c22,982$1,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.1150%0 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed Yes6c21,066$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.8313548.1%65 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0766…3e65backed Yes3c20,767$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.032623.1%6 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f38…2e85backed Yes9c20,668$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes2c20,310$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.19427.1%3 W · 39 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-84.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033c…5eacbacked Yes3c20,081$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.11844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes6c19,577$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.86984.1%4 W · 94 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-61.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes6c19,331$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.3523237.1%86 W · 146 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd152…f201backed Yes2c18,692$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.74130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b2a…25d5backed Yes3c17,519$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-70.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x865d…515bbacked Yes8c17,085$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.77933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc43e…0141backed Yes6c16,449$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000120%0 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc676…8ddebacked Yes7c16,414$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.451040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeff…4cbfbacked Yes2c15,932$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e70…8e28backed Yes2c15,714$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe286…cfdcbacked Yes2c15,587$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bcf…0410backed Yes2c15,586$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc25d…fb2ebacked Yes2c15,524$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0684…083ebacked Yes2c15,506$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x435d…2bb2backed Yes2c15,491$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3f1…2dd5backed Yes2c15,462$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf15b…dcc3backed Yes2c15,416$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9f8…e650backed Yes2c15,411$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1e4…6b93backed Yes2c15,381$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17b2…f34abacked Yes2c15,363$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc02…ebebbacked Yes2c15,344$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x981c…71c7backed Yes2c15,274$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d88…144cbacked Yes2c15,253$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57be…b321backed Yes2c15,228$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67f2…2af7backed Yes2c15,226$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cf7…11a4backed Yes2c15,213$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3d…d433backed Yes2c15,210$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09e2…bbbdbacked Yes2c15,175$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f8…70bebacked Yes2c15,171$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaffc…f686backed Yes2c15,168$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a4a…8644backed Yes2c15,144$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe73…0cf4backed Yes2c15,136$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70fd…26f2backed Yes2c15,016$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44ba…8cbabacked Yes2c14,981$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf22b…1db2backed Yes2c14,968$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c1b…0847backed Yes2c14,960$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9069…13c3backed Yes2c14,954$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf4…3b3fbacked Yes2c14,936$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69d2…5ca8backed Yes2c14,921$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5ae…5ccbbacked Yes2c14,911$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b0a…7360backed Yes2c14,891$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f00…2aa3backed Yes2c14,842$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510c…2771backed Yes2c14,758$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.