NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Pistons
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e7de8cace0db2a47b00d1a1433ae70a33e7acee2700bcf1def9135063fbdc1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Wizards, Pistons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $179,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3503…b8babacked Wizards | 10c | 15,639$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.89 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Wizards | 0c | 12,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,277 | 2.3%29 W · 1,248 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Wizards | 1c | 11,545$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.19 | 878 | 3%26 W · 852 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…d826backed Wizards | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Wizards | 11c | 8,053$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.33 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards | 11c | 8,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.97 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…3e11backed Wizards | 11c | 6,910$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Wizards | 11c | 6,149$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.25 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Wizards | 0c | 4,444$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 457 | 3.5%16 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Wizards | 3c | 4,208$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.45 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb26…94ddbacked Wizards | 1c | 3,021$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 100 | 18%18 W · 82 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a7…b33abacked Wizards | 10c | 3,020$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Wizards | 1c | 2,538$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Wizards | 1c | 2,427$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 750 | 2%15 W · 735 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Wizards | 2c | 2,220$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Wizards | 10c | 2,155$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.5 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Wizards | 6c | 1,808$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.54 | 345 | 32.8%113 W · 232 L | -16.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Wizards | 1c | 1,533$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 550 | 2.5%14 W · 536 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f3…db29backed Wizards | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Wizards | 3c | 1,376$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2b…525abacked Wizards | 10c | 1,266$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.74 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Wizards | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 308 | 26.6%82 W · 226 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Wizards | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 618 | 35.4%219 W · 399 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed Wizards | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 345 | 51.3%177 W · 168 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Wizards | 12c | 999.64$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33fe…0cccbacked Wizards | 5c | 985$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Wizards | 5c | 910.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 686 | 42.1%289 W · 397 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Wizards | 12c | 910.95$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.31 | 231 | 35.1%81 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…b24ebacked Wizards | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 29.8%48 W · 113 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards | 6c | 733.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Wizards | 11c | 699$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.86 | 855 | 42%359 W · 496 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Wizards | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 169 | 28.4%48 W · 121 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…1a89backed Wizards | 12c | 528.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3091…a2a9backed Wizards | 12c | 523.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…5c2abacked Wizards | 13c | 520$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf1…e491backed Wizards | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadbe…bc55backed Wizards | 11c | 499.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 504 | 53.8%271 W · 233 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…488ebacked Wizards | 11c | 499.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 723 | 41.2%298 W · 425 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bba…211fbacked Wizards | 11c | 460$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Wizards | 12c | 429.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 166 | 17.5%29 W · 137 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Wizards | 4c | 419.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 370 | 11.4%42 W · 328 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…53b1backed Wizards | 12c | 404.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…1d6bbacked Wizards | 10c | 380$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 502 | 45.8%230 W · 272 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Wizards | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa0…e7cfbacked Wizards | 7c | 350.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa33…8dbcbacked Wizards | 7c | 287.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 294 | 50.3%148 W · 146 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Wizards | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 718 | 23.3%167 W · 551 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d7…676fbacked Wizards | 10c | 254.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Wizards | 12c | 235.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Wizards | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 296 | 43.2%128 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5161…771ebacked Wizards | 12c | 226.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Wizards | 11c | 223.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf426…152fbacked Wizards | 12c | 204.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…3113backed Wizards | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 233 | 59.7%139 W · 94 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…6ed6backed Wizards | 12c | 175.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Wizards | 11c | 167.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 227 | 33%75 W · 152 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Wizards | 10c | 159.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…b5efbacked Wizards | 12c | 153.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Wizards | 8c | 148.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 248 | 46.4%115 W · 133 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc575…3fb1backed Wizards | 9c | 137.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Wizards | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d45…dfffbacked Wizards | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7428…aaf2backed Wizards | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…894ebacked Wizards | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…7ca7backed Wizards | 12c | 108.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Wizards | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 302 | 43.7%132 W · 170 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Wizards | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 357 | 34.5%123 W · 234 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed37…5849backed Wizards | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe028…9470backed Wizards | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…415ebacked Wizards | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 316 | 31.6%100 W · 216 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd914…a7e3backed Wizards | 12c | 92.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.