TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xed37…5849

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
90
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 55 out of 100; worst MLB at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT3033.3%10 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$37
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.4
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.5
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.5
Hornets vs. Spursbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Rockets vs. Pelicansbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$48
Bucks vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+177.8%+$23.11
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$42.5
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Bucks vs. Pelicansbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$28.08
Magic vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Thunder vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Wizards vs. Pistonsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Grizzlies vs. Pelicansbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$16.36
Mavericks vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST+31.6%+$24
Suns vs. Rocketsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Hawks vs. Magicbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST+177.8%+$40.89
Pelicans vs. Nuggetsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$17.7
Lakers vs. Wizardsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2025, EST+33.3%+$22
Jazz vs. Warriorsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$26.99
Hawks vs. Timberwolvesbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Lakers vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$26
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$55
Heat vs. Bucksbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT2759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.02
Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$44.85
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$14.88
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$10.8
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$34
Will England win on 2026-06-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$47.4
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.36
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$13.8
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$11.5
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+37%+$9.99
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$20.8
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$36
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+25%+$20
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$48.1
Will Wales vs. Ghana end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will Georgia vs. Romania end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.28
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+37%+$13.5
Will Cabo Verde vs. Serbia end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$13.5
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2025, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-43.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Avalanche vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$28
Blackhawks vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$22
Islanders vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$14.34
Blues vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Golden Knights vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Flames vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST+47.1%+$14.59
Wild vs. Avalanchebacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$26
Maple Leafs vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Penguins vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Bruins vs. Rangersbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Flames vs. Jetsbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$29
Panthers vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Capitals vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Red Wings vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+63.9%+$58.82
All 14 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jays vs. Rockiesbacked Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
White Sox vs. Raysbacked Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.5
Marlins vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
All 3 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 15, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Florida International vs. Western Kentuckybacked Florida International · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+354.5%+$49.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bills vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST+81.8%+$45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oklahoma vs. UConnbacked UConn · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$24.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kasımpaşa SK vs. Fatih Karagümrük SK end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+38.9%+$10.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nice vs. Saint-Etienne end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Torino FC vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.