TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Florida International vs. Western Kentucky

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Florida Internationalof Florida International, Western Kentucky
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,042,466
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,930,085

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,042,466 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Florida International24c952,885$226,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726,294.9512549.6%62 W · 63 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaefe…1e4abacked Western Kentucky80c499,392$398,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398,480.082955.2%16 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3672…edbdbacked Western Kentucky76c265,000$201,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200,999.982948.3%14 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick61cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Western Kentucky75c225,250$169,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169,5823842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Florida International24c117,309$28,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89,154.9532745.6%149 W · 178 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Western Kentucky75c116,712$87,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,728.4675651.9%392 W · 364 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Western Kentucky76c90,000$68,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,1005957.6%34 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Western Kentucky17c79,854$13,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,529.4519362.2%120 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ed7…e617backed Florida International20c66,430$13,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,977.835440.7%22 W · 32 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Florida International21c50,000$10,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,7008331.3%26 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Western Kentucky75c47,500$35,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,8153154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Florida International23c35,000$8,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,95011846.6%55 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Florida International20c34,546$6,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,591.568948.3%43 W · 46 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00d6…aa44backed Florida International21c34,059$7,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,965.6912718.9%24 W · 103 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Florida International21c30,000$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,7009750.5%49 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Western Kentucky75c28,375$21,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,281.2537749.6%187 W · 190 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Florida International20c27,117$5,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,564.051,09041.7%455 W · 635 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Western Kentucky75c23,130$17,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,347.3815539.4%61 W · 94 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Western Kentucky67c22,823$15,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,286.8515451.9%80 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Florida International20c22,786$4,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,229.1430949.5%153 W · 156 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcce5…bdafbacked Florida International22c21,353$4,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,631.793745.9%17 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Western Kentucky76c21,000$15,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,96011653.4%62 W · 54 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Florida International22c19,762$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,461.8915745.2%71 W · 86 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f05…c0b8backed Florida International20c18,300$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,549.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+226.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Florida International20c16,400$3,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,175.9825629.3%75 W · 181 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Florida International27c15,907$4,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,612.237664.5%49 W · 27 L+9.0wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+65.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Florida International48c13,014$6,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,804.5486243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Florida International36c11,792$4,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,558.416635.5%59 W · 107 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Florida International21c11,253$2,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,936.814743.5%64 W · 83 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ad…8009backed Florida International22c9,400$2,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,3321100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Florida International46c9,190$4,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,983.8740541.2%167 W · 238 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Western Kentucky20c8,714$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,745.3585947.7%410 W · 449 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Western Kentucky20c8,697$1,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,753.955350.3%278 W · 275 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Western Kentucky32c8,156$2,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,604.45745.6%26 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Florida International21c7,387$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,811.9438450.5%194 W · 190 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2e0…4983backed Western Kentucky80c7,256$5,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,8054052.5%21 W · 19 L+6.1wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+39%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Florida International21c7,200$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,700.519051.6%98 W · 92 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Florida International20c6,800$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,439.996947.8%33 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Western Kentucky78c6,419$4,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,998.252,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Florida International21c5,796$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,557.9234250.3%172 W · 170 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Western Kentucky77c5,245$4,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,038.6581847.9%392 W · 426 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed Western Kentucky80c4,866$3,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,873.53735.1%13 W · 24 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-39%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Florida International21c4,000$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,169.997126.8%19 W · 52 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Florida International79c3,547$2,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.9868440.8%279 W · 405 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x183c…f958backed Western Kentucky80c3,405$2,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,72410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c15…7a9fbacked Western Kentucky80c3,100$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,48010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Western Kentucky1c3,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365028%14 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac1a…cf2ebacked Florida International21c3,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,370250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick18cpaid+138.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Western Kentucky1c2,967$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.45814.9%4 W · 77 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33e5…3c18backed Western Kentucky80c2,899$2,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Florida International22c2,793$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,178.4449443.7%216 W · 278 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Western Kentucky80c2,750$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2001947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked Florida International22c2,644$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,074.143145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Western Kentucky56c2,635$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.7129351.9%152 W · 141 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Florida International2c2,500$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4502722.2%6 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick2cpaid+841.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Florida International21c2,381$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.954959.2%29 W · 20 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+36.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf992…2219backed Western Kentucky79c2,278$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Florida International9c2,222$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.028629.1%25 W · 61 L+15.2wins+0.18per pick11cpaid+361.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Florida International21c2,183$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,724.5711844.1%52 W · 66 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56bb…8e6bbacked Western Kentucky22c2,076$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.11330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-41.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Florida International38c2,066$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.2438546%177 W · 208 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a32…6d7ebacked Florida International20c2,000$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,606.676465.6%42 W · 22 L+14.8wins+0.23per pick42cpaid+58.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Florida International59c1,927$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.6662843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8813…47e6backed Western Kentucky79c1,900$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Western Kentucky78c1,874$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.725754.4%31 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x279b…04f5backed Florida International21c1,606$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.871421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-42.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Florida International22c1,587$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.3517946.9%84 W · 95 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eed…a6ffbacked Western Kentucky80c1,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Western Kentucky77c1,500$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1552245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d61…2cadbacked Florida International20c1,500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Western Kentucky71c1,484$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.5663243.7%276 W · 356 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+138.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Western Kentucky25c1,463$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.165639.3%22 W · 34 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Florida International21c1,405$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.761030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfca…68fcbacked Florida International22c1,400$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,09247131.4%148 W · 323 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4661…9508backed Florida International22c1,373$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+127.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7292…6bd3backed Florida International22c1,371$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.672842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+35%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Florida International22c1,333$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.7410750.5%54 W · 53 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d7…a695backed Western Kentucky79c1,267$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Western Kentucky77c1,157$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.3140244.8%180 W · 222 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3389…62d9backed Western Kentucky79c1,100$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7155…40fabacked Western Kentucky78c1,061$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Western Kentucky76c1,020$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.23644.4%16 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-12.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xedae…584fbacked Florida International21c1,000$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7955856.9%33 W · 25 L+7.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+36.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb076…89c6backed Florida International23c1,000$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7701100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51d6…a77fbacked Western Kentucky80c1,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3767…1f07backed Florida International20c1,000$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8001100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63af…0a25backed Florida International21c1,000$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7952450%12 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db9…3d33backed Florida International21c930.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.74757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+87.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4837…94a1backed Florida International22c909.09$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74bc…98c9backed Florida International65c871.84$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.6610555.2%58 W · 47 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Florida International20c800$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6404151.2%21 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Western Kentucky75c750$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.55451.9%28 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Western Kentucky14c727.8$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.328236.6%30 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Florida International22c675.99$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.2750358.1%292 W · 211 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Western Kentucky39c643.04$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.586855.9%38 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe06b…06a3backed Western Kentucky80c626.65$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2207…f06fbacked Florida International21c625$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+104.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c4e…3313backed Western Kentucky78c606.41$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Florida International20c600$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4804639.1%18 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Florida International21c597.1$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.4310340.8%42 W · 61 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.