College Football · resolved market
Spread: Western Kentucky (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x431eb79355e88fd8035767f3dd5c8eb92eb9eba968878495f8391cdc6eaf19d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Florida Internationalof Western Kentucky, Florida International
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $245,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $247,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Florida International | 54c | 205,167$110,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94,628.98 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Western Kentucky | 46c | 167,055$77,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77,147.2 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Western Kentucky | 47c | 18,728$8,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,827.47 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Western Kentucky | 46c | 15,000$6,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,900 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Florida International | 51c | 12,539$6,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,119.99 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Western Kentucky | 49c | 9,499$4,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,654.69 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Western Kentucky | 47c | 6,950$3,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,266.44 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Western Kentucky | 49c | 3,808$1,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.92 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Florida International | 52c | 3,795$1,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.6 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Western Kentucky | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bc…73b7backed Western Kentucky | 49c | 1,890$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Florida International | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Western Kentucky | 49c | 1,179$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.59 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Florida International | 51c | 1,100$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Florida International | 51c | 750$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.5 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Florida International | 52c | 577.46$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.18 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Florida International | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Florida International | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7be6backed Florida International | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Western Kentucky | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Florida International | 52c | 279.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Florida International | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Western Kentucky | 49c | 217.33$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Western Kentucky | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Western Kentucky | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1498…a10bbacked Florida International | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Florida International | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…28eabacked Florida International | 52c | 94.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0b…5ba9backed Florida International | 52c | 75.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Florida International | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Western Kentucky | 49c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…379bbacked Western Kentucky | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Western Kentucky (-10.5)this page
- Florida International vs. Western KentuckyFlorida International won
- O/U 56.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.