NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Chiefs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdb10ccc5a7f29407bcc40cb5b5811cfaefb9448c87ee68fd31fb222e4d8100c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chiefsof Bills, Chiefs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,261,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,376,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,261,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,487 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1638…339bbacked Bills | 45c | 539,964$245,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245,548.75 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Bills | 22c | 332,275$73,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73,376.13 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad3e…4422backed Bills | 45c | 227,504$102,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102,652.57 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2b…525abacked Chiefs | 60c | 198,370$118,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79,645.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f44…3ae9backed Bills | 46c | 185,338$84,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84,821.63 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e80…59e8backed Chiefs | 53c | 142,190$75,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66,829.46 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fc…34b6backed Chiefs | 54c | 131,057$70,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,856.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…ee63backed Chiefs | 53c | 129,930$69,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,914.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…4c4ebacked Bills | 49c | 100,828$49,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,405.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Bills | 22c | 90,464$20,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,335.11 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7167…4a56backed Chiefs | 55c | 83,343$45,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,688.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…78ddbacked Chiefs | 52c | 79,999$42,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,999.68 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…e954backed Chiefs | 53c | 77,459$41,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,405.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Chiefs | 53c | 71,022$37,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,380.19 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Bills | 43c | 70,243$30,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,516.83 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed Chiefs | 69c | 68,810$47,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,332.92 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…f722backed Chiefs | 60c | 67,334$40,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,179.38 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…53c8backed Bills | 46c | 65,217$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,000 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Bills | 45c | 62,310$28,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,339.48 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…95ffbacked Chiefs | 53c | 60,099$31,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,246.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc9…2b7ebacked Chiefs | 53c | 60,000$32,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,999.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Chiefs | 55c | 59,269$32,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,943.89 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae76…dce5backed Bills | 46c | 54,535$25,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,329.03 | 273 | 39.2%107 W · 166 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Bills | 47c | 52,354$24,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,657.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…3af8backed Chiefs | 54c | 51,192$27,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,526.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bills | 33c | 51,188$17,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,066.64 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578c…9661backed Bills | 46c | 43,478$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Bills | 32c | 42,893$13,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,736.07 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…f010backed Chiefs | 52c | 41,043$21,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,700.85 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…b656backed Bills | 47c | 37,000$17,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,390 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…5effbacked Bills | 45c | 36,888$16,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,468.68 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…fb60backed Chiefs | 61c | 36,656$22,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,470.78 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…f932backed Chiefs | 54c | 35,226$19,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,134.83 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9e…74aebacked Bills | 42c | 35,073$14,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,831.91 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed Chiefs | 69c | 34,865$24,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,856.8 | 165 | 45.5%75 W · 90 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…2b67backed Bills | 12c | 28,320$3,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,317.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f4…bc4fbacked Chiefs | 53c | 27,979$14,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,150.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b16…85e0backed Bills | 37c | 24,092$8,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,844.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf6…1681backed Chiefs | 54c | 23,430$12,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,702.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Chiefs | 53c | 22,772$12,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,702.64 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Bills | 30c | 22,446$6,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,838.89 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…ad02backed Chiefs | 58c | 22,153$12,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,410.68 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2863…0e3ebacked Bills | 46c | 21,760$10,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,116.79 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f2…702cbacked Chiefs | 62c | 20,319$12,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,698.72 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d79…4725backed Bills | 35c | 19,885$6,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,988.36 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Bills | 36c | 19,864$7,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,172.36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4222…bcd3backed Chiefs | 53c | 18,836$9,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,852.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236a…9a00backed Chiefs | 54c | 18,519$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,518.52 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…5726backed Chiefs | 54c | 18,519$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,518.52 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Chiefs | 59c | 18,382$10,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,531.54 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Bills | 47c | 17,757$8,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,423.52 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…5781backed Bills | 48c | 17,629$8,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,461.81 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…c2bfbacked Chiefs | 54c | 17,233$9,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,909.74 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ab…5eb9backed Chiefs | 67c | 16,942$11,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,610.72 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Bills | 30c | 16,535$5,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,017.71 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed Chiefs | 54c | 16,000$8,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,360 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Bills | 35c | 15,973$5,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,651.89 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd94f…8936backed Chiefs | 69c | 15,514$10,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,820.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…28b4backed Bills | 46c | 15,000$6,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,949.95 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked Bills | 43c | 14,183$6,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,146.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Bills | 44c | 13,964$6,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,181.04 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed Chiefs | 59c | 13,415$7,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,486.62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa501…9f0fbacked Chiefs | 54c | 12,647$6,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,821.17 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4feb…dd3bbacked Bills | 48c | 12,603$6,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,016.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Chiefs | 54c | 12,603$6,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,797.29 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1396…b149backed Bills | 48c | 12,526$5,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,972.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Chiefs | 54c | 12,500$6,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,750 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Chiefs | 63c | 11,915$7,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,380.33 | 144 | 57.6%83 W · 61 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6929…0e4bbacked Bills | 27c | 11,744$3,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,151.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388f…1779backed Bills | 46c | 11,510$5,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,294.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Chiefs | 52c | 11,111$5,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,333.28 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75e0…fe50backed Chiefs | 71c | 10,746$7,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,145.86 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…1accbacked Chiefs | 53c | 10,632$5,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,997.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff9…bb89backed Chiefs | 63c | 10,516$6,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,915.89 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…12d9backed Bills | 47c | 10,476$4,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,923.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Bills | 34c | 10,218$3,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,466 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…1ff4backed Bills | 41c | 10,153$4,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,145.62 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9969…c885backed Bills | 43c | 10,028$4,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,297.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…45dbbacked Chiefs | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Bills | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ae…4318backed Bills | 42c | 10,000$4,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,150 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Chiefs | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Bills | 47c | 9,937$4,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,685.74 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…6132backed Chiefs | 52c | 9,597$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,596.74 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Bills | 47c | 9,500$4,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,465 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c11…c7e6backed Chiefs | 53c | 9,486$5,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,458.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9483…39b2backed Chiefs | 63c | 9,278$5,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,432.93 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9af5…5312backed Chiefs | 54c | 9,257$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,256.87 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…a4ccbacked Bills | 52c | 9,174$4,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,770.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Chiefs | 60c | 9,055$5,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,658.46 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5523…51e9backed Bills | 47c | 8,949$4,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,249.93 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Bills | 47c | 8,838$4,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,109.89 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f8…5897backed Bills | 41c | 8,419$3,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,482.14 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798c…56d8backed Chiefs | 58c | 7,899$4,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,298.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa075…09fdbacked Bills | 35c | 7,876$2,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,772.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Chiefs | 54c | 7,553$4,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,474.21 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…b6ddbacked Chiefs | 53c | 7,547$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,547.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…72c1backed Bills | 44c | 7,485$3,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,287.67 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41ba…dfbbbacked Chiefs | 54c | 7,441$3,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,441.51 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ec…3665backed Chiefs | 68c | 7,351$4,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,352.44 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.