Premier League · resolved market
Will Wolves vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb9c6fc5bd4399be25f8b45aac95754405425b32a0dde24cc53ace33e6f15431
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe626…2fe6backed Yes | 32c | 3,128$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 72c | 1,399$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.91 | 147 | 32.7%48 W · 99 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed No | 73c | 1,268$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.82 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 68c | 1,084$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.6 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 71c | 973.18$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.91 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…4700backed No | 73c | 849.98$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 72c | 486.63$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.26 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 73c | 405.16$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.89 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb826…8d67backed Yes | 28c | 351.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 27c | 350$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad5d…4678backed Yes | 28c | 224.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a9…5369backed Yes | 24c | 200.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…64adbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…3a39backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -45%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…15b5backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf145…8ca2backed Yes | 36c | 130.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 75c | 100.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…cd06backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed37…5849backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba2…cb54backed Yes | 28c | 99.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…18c5backed Yes | 27c | 99.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64a…21dabacked Yes | 32c | 94.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Yes | 28c | 87.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…58c3backed No | 74c | 87.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…b6aebacked Yes | 15c | 71.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…d04fbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c15…a488backed No | 74c | 70.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeab…b7f9backed No | 74c | 66.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…4864backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea0b…1f5bbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa62e…dd41backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…c37fbacked No | 73c | 43.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb9…7a0ebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…e87fbacked No | 72c | 23.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wolves vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-01?No won
- Will Wolves win on 2025-02-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.