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NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Bucks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bucksof Heat, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$278,361
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$329,622

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $278,361 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 340 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0269…cb2dbacked Heat37c35,142$12,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,850.4165642.5%279 W · 377 L-2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9483…39b2backed Bucks69c25,000$17,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,7506863.2%43 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff0…46e3backed Bucks68c24,260$16,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,831.3147656.5%269 W · 207 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Heat31c17,928$5,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,603.513,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1484…cafebacked Heat40c11,180$4,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,455.0229738.7%115 W · 182 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadef…d0acbacked Bucks74c9,097$6,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,346.623348.5%16 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2bd…dce0backed Heat29c9,048$2,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,634.2677745%350 W · 427 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1638…339bbacked Heat30c6,873$2,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.729952.5%52 W · 47 L+9.6wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+28.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2cc0…f722backed Bucks71c6,855$4,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,013.0412663.5%80 W · 46 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Heat44c6,479$2,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,829.251,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x791e…17ddbacked Bucks60c6,011$3,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,404.787248.6%35 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Bucks72c6,000$4,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,69015551%79 W · 76 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Heat28c5,645$1,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,607.811,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Heat0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103350%0 W · 335 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Bucks72c5,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40029858.7%175 W · 123 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Bucks71c5,000$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.991,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Heat29c5,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.9919152.4%100 W · 91 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc2a3…1698backed Heat29c3,613$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.739250%46 W · 46 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+30.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Heat30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90040627.8%113 W · 293 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Bucks66c2,982$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.6629652.7%156 W · 140 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Bucks65c2,831$1,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.3936843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6150…13f7backed Bucks75c2,690$2,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.243240.6%13 W · 19 L-6.9wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-34.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Heat1c2,100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc542…231bbacked Heat1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102810.7%3 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Heat18c1,955$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.981,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Bucks50c1,926$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.1361532.2%198 W · 417 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Heat1c1,857$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Heat1c1,777$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.761,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x78cf…4816backed Bucks71c1,408$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.45560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeea7…c4d0backed Bucks71c1,408$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.451764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66cc…d87abacked Bucks72c1,400$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3921346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf414…cd58backed Heat30c1,400$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.991353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+58.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Heat1c1,345$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.367502%15 W · 735 L-3.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0781…11cdbacked Bucks71c1,267$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.531241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Heat37c1,254$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.0485347.9%409 W · 444 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6b7…11bfbacked Heat28c1,250$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce7…fd4abacked Heat51c1,187$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.3614057.9%81 W · 59 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfab7…953abacked Heat30c1,184$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.124632.6%15 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Bucks71c1,166$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.7173051.8%378 W · 352 L-2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Heat26c1,068$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.125,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcefa…bef8backed Bucks71c1,018$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.186947.8%33 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x520a…ab8abacked Heat31c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31051037.5%191 W · 319 L+1.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dc7…3a04backed Heat27c999.98$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2708229.3%24 W · 58 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0166…c1aebacked Bucks58c930.99$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.981546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe324…9189backed Heat30c894.34$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.33455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Heat50c883.99$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44249849.4%246 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed Heat11c880.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,88837.3%704 W · 1,184 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe947…2cf3backed Bucks66c874.65$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.6584957.6%489 W · 360 L-52.1wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-9.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ee3…45c2backed Heat29c846$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.73148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae4…b156backed Bucks72c800$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick40cpaid+87%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Heat2c770$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.575502.5%14 W · 536 L+2.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Heat27c717$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.247948%230 W · 249 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Bucks71c715.81$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.761851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Heat30c700$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21027546.2%127 W · 148 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4dd…3c12backed Bucks72c699.22$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.227140.8%29 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Bucks73c684.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.9316261.7%100 W · 62 L-9.2wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4583…0bb9backed Heat27c668.85$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Bucks66c648.64$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.041,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3a…69e3backed Heat29c635$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Heat29c623.63$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.3788053.8%473 W · 407 L+52.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f79…1db4backed Heat33c610.92$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016838.7%65 W · 103 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ad…5176backed Heat27c608$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1630440.5%123 W · 181 L+12.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Heat29c599.99$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17429148.8%142 W · 149 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Bucks50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501,09035.8%390 W · 700 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Bucks71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14589353%473 W · 420 L+1.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadbe…bc55backed Bucks71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14550453.8%271 W · 233 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b0b…f9d6backed Heat48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2408547.1%40 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Heat29c500$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1785542%359 W · 496 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd45…63bfbacked Heat29c499.98$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.994344.2%19 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Heat27c496$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.0371747.6%341 W · 376 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked Bucks60c493.42$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.379338.7%36 W · 57 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+91.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdaa1…4340backed Heat52c484.62$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2507636.8%28 W · 48 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed Heat38c470.38$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.970951.3%364 W · 345 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb9c…d01bbacked Bucks70c428.58$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.586560%39 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Heat33c428.41$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.0170640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Bucks50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20047357.9%274 W · 199 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked Heat30c400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12035046%161 W · 189 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb34…59eabacked Heat29c400$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1166045%27 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x17e7…85a1backed Bucks73c400$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10819556.9%111 W · 84 L+20.0wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7ea1…a2bbbacked Bucks71c391$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.394452.3%23 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat28c387.95$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.622,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x298c…3e58backed Heat31c387.1$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12023539.1%92 W · 143 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Bucks69c374.75$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.1737954.1%205 W · 174 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid0%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa895…4935backed Heat33c367.75$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.953759.5%22 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd402…5a50backed Bucks72c359.19$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5728058.2%163 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Bucks70c355.13$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.134151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Heat4c350$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152165.6%12 W · 204 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8b…c2d0backed Heat23c343$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.111249.1%55 W · 57 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked Heat30c333.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038132.8%125 W · 256 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebad…4fdabacked Heat43c331$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed2…3faabacked Bucks72c320$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Bucks72c319.45$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4512759.8%76 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd88…1ca6backed Bucks71c317.99$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.2219451.5%100 W · 94 L-17.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-17.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4082…2ee3backed Bucks72c315$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x214d…8911backed Bucks71c300.51$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Bucks71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871,16654.4%634 W · 532 L+19.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Heat23c299.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6944337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfac8…7a9ebacked Heat30c299.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909242.4%39 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Heat35c299.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540448.3%195 W · 209 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Heat28c299.97$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9968642.1%289 W · 397 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.