TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Kings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$329,563
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$383,881

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $329,563 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 240 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc58d…9373backed Kings22c54,635$12,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,160.7228241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Kings10c20,090$2,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,002.883,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Thunder75c13,582$10,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,395.549849.4%246 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked Thunder77c11,192$8,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,622.2933931.9%108 W · 231 L-28.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-37.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x089b…2193backed Kings12c10,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15027731.4%87 W · 190 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Kings25c10,000$2,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,484.981,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a6f…7684backed Kings10c9,933$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.72948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Thunder76c9,858$7,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,411.8448046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x670d…0825backed Thunder79c9,331$7,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,957.767759.7%46 W · 31 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+20.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Thunder79c8,400$6,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,765.571,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Kings8c8,246$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.071,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x521b…db60backed Kings21c7,298$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.621330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b1…6f55backed Kings25c6,235$1,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.120238.6%78 W · 124 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Kings22c5,551$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.4237734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1752…7993backed Kings8c5,127$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.194062.5%25 W · 15 L+6.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+52%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Kings0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103350%0 W · 335 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Thunder79c5,000$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,05029858.7%175 W · 123 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x221f…6be8backed Thunder78c2,902$2,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.5329747.5%141 W · 156 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Kings12c2,753$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.9870640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5d2…317bbacked Kings22c2,609$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.318354.1%99 W · 84 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Kings23c2,224$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.5625939%101 W · 158 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Thunder78c2,079$1,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.496873.5%50 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Thunder77c2,074$1,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.0629957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Kings2c1,902$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1537627.9%105 W · 271 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Kings3c1,782$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8228245.4%128 W · 154 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b6a…3eedbacked Kings20c1,772$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.7227735.4%98 W · 179 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Thunder75c1,546$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.0462351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Thunder75c1,512$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.759868.4%67 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x997b…801ebacked Kings21c1,505$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.0346131%143 W · 318 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Thunder79c1,500$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.3528341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7656…2c7ebacked Thunder78c1,282$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.05862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf62d…d3a0backed Thunder78c1,279$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.8129643.2%128 W · 168 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked Kings24c1,260$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.822955.9%128 W · 101 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Kings12c1,250$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.547535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb215…b819backed Kings10c1,250$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12526124.1%63 W · 198 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42e0…0578backed Kings25c1,239$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.6820553.7%110 W · 95 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Kings1c1,207$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.227502%15 W · 735 L-3.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Kings2c1,200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Kings22c1,170$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.546342.5%197 W · 266 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x854f…00a7backed Kings14c1,158$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.3847229.4%139 W · 333 L-33.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Thunder79c1,030$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.319149.7%95 W · 96 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Thunder77c1,005$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.1557760.5%349 W · 228 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb31…cd36backed Thunder79c1,004$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.841080%8 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Thunder76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24073051.8%378 W · 352 L-2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Kings24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401,02848.5%499 W · 529 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eb8…74b8backed Kings21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Thunder76c934.11$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.5834425.6%88 W · 256 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfae…30a3backed Kings23c882.74$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.03862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick37cpaid+104.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Thunder78c805.18$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.373647.3%348 W · 388 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c56…5a66backed Kings25c804.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011040.9%45 W · 65 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Thunder73c772.24$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.51,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Kings1c772$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.791,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe206…38cebacked Kings3c679.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023554.5%128 W · 107 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d80…219abacked Kings25c666.81$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1707851.3%40 W · 38 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Kings21c604.99$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.1585542%359 W · 496 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf901…51d3backed Kings21c602.54$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.087230.6%22 W · 50 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab3c…5093backed Kings8c576.67$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6515538.1%59 W · 96 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9ff…6c51backed Thunder79c569.62$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.621464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Kings21c544.02$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1561835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Kings9c530$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.295848.7%467 W · 491 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Kings18c518.15$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.281,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Thunder79c516.41$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.459038.9%35 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2b8…5ce5backed Thunder78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1103961.5%24 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fa1…591abacked Kings8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406450%32 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ae…cb95backed Thunder79c486.85$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2426049.2%128 W · 132 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Thunder75c480.79$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.3934644.2%153 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4779…7bcabacked Thunder77c475.38$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.342661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x950d…d965backed Kings22c457.41$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.633751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…b24ebacked Kings22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016129.8%48 W · 113 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…1219backed Thunder79c450$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9423658.1%137 W · 99 L+0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Kings9c427$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9671747.6%341 W · 376 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2d…8b38backed Thunder77c423.51$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.411464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d3d…82c7backed Kings24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008452.4%44 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef63…96cbbacked Kings6c403.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.537831.2%118 W · 260 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Thunder78c400.5$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.5161345.5%279 W · 334 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d46…cc6dbacked Kings22c396.77$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.291020%2 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-64.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x49b2…ffd0backed Kings7c390$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.415613.5%21 W · 135 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b0d…1744backed Thunder79c379$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.591353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8374…8c35backed Kings21c300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Kings27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8130641.8%128 W · 178 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51dd…2f92backed Kings23c260.87$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6019944.7%89 W · 110 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-19.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c84…bacabacked Thunder77c259.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.741464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99ac…5e6ebacked Kings20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9722.8%2 W · 70 L-12.1wins-0.17per pick20cpaid-85.8%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Kings24c250$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6087647.5%416 W · 460 L+3.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf71c…feb6backed Kings22c250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed Kings22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,88837.3%704 W · 1,184 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc3…3febbacked Thunder80c225$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.758373.5%61 W · 22 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+16.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Thunder76c220$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.824147.3%114 W · 127 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Kings24c206.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5525536.9%94 W · 161 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Kings19c200$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e1b…7ccabacked Thunder75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5015149%74 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d4b…a250backed Thunder78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4434447.4%163 W · 181 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf856…8a4cbacked Thunder79c189.87$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.871070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fe8…56a3backed Kings20c189.69$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9432130.2%97 W · 224 L-0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eb9…ee09backed Kings22c188.91$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.564055%22 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc9b…ede9backed Thunder79c183.54$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.54966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9efd…036bbacked Kings23c181.91$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.841457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…be67backed Thunder79c176.66$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.14843.8%21 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x850c…672ebacked Thunder79c171.89$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.14856.3%27 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2301…1b33backed Thunder79c170.66$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.844753.2%25 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.