TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Rockets vs. Pelicans

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pelicansof Rockets, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,077,073
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,135,854

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,077,073 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 589 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pelicans23c217,060$49,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168,024.614,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Rockets69c43,696$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,00016846.4%78 W · 90 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Rockets45c32,534$14,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,530.881,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Pelicans23c30,691$7,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,622.912,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Rockets0c30,182$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pelicans22c28,800$6,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,565.221,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Rockets77c24,916$19,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,185.2747751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Pelicans41c24,281$9,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,337.718453.3%98 W · 86 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Pelicans23c20,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,40051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Rockets77c19,676$15,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,095.789,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Rockets78c19,163$14,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,972.332,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Rockets76c17,132$13,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,019.992,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Pelicans22c15,687$3,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,235.991,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x532f…e626backed Rockets77c15,590$12,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,028.25360.4%32 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Pelicans25c15,005$3,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,250.7513625.7%35 W · 101 L+0.5wins0.00per pick25cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Rockets74c12,948$9,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,564.785,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea32…8870backed Rockets79c12,658$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0004744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Rockets1c12,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12029810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Rockets78c10,875$8,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,482.57468.9%51 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f6…48f3backed Rockets77c10,105$7,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,7816256.5%35 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Pelicans23c10,000$2,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,743.61,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Rockets78c10,000$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,80018045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Pelicans22c10,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,799.8419048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7321…5e5fbacked Rockets77c9,801$7,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,546.661520%3 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-74.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Rockets79c8,887$7,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,020.9713455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Rockets77c8,877$6,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,818.3972450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Rockets66c8,082$5,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,364.261,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Rockets78c7,734$6,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,032.5217658%102 W · 74 L+13.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Rockets78c7,715$6,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,017.8413063.8%83 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Pelicans40c7,294$2,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,376.983,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Pelicans21c6,955$1,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,521.691,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Rockets78c6,900$5,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,3829855.1%54 W · 44 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Pelicans59c6,417$3,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,662.393,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Rockets78c6,361$4,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,933.3755346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x708d…8a09backed Pelicans21c6,189$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,907.2421923.7%52 W · 167 L+0.5wins0.00per pick24cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Rockets79c5,679$4,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,501.272,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Pelicans20c5,535$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,440.6541652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61a1…6657backed Rockets78c5,512$4,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,287.6427758.8%163 W · 114 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Pelicans36c5,483$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,482.9331044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Rockets77c5,450$4,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,188.912,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Pelicans21c5,150$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,047.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Pelicans4c4,189$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,040.016931.9%22 W · 47 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Rockets59c3,734$2,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,210.331,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcddb…0d22backed Rockets77c3,697$2,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,846.3322857.5%131 W · 97 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Pelicans21c3,536$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,793.691,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc946…1825backed Rockets73c3,514$2,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,572.915259.6%31 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa72c…a633backed Rockets77c3,500$2,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,703.949953.5%53 W · 46 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pelicans21c3,479$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,747.774,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Pelicans2c3,356$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,272.365213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Rockets79c3,293$2,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,595.1344648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Pelicans15c3,274$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,773.6742827.3%117 W · 311 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cf0…3156backed Pelicans35c3,076$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,995.4550338.4%193 W · 310 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Rockets79c3,000$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,36047043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans22c2,853$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,226.738,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Rockets77c2,799$2,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15530452.6%160 W · 144 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Rockets1c2,700$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.478783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20e5…d3bcbacked Pelicans21c2,700$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,13322637.2%84 W · 142 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Rockets78c2,639$2,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,058.3295049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3af4…ed6bbacked Rockets79c2,532$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002642.3%11 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-26.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Pelicans22c2,500$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,95085147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Rockets75c2,165$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.513,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a0e…4dc6backed Rockets78c2,101$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,638.7311956.3%67 W · 52 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Rockets59c2,100$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.9339744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Rockets78c2,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56062347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5520…32ffbacked Rockets2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40440%0 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Pelicans20c2,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,61047028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x11b5…0d05backed Pelicans15c1,996$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.122536%9 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Rockets78c1,951$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,521.6536741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a7c…eab7backed Rockets78c1,913$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4924365.1%28 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rockets77c1,845$1,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.372,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Rockets1c1,842$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.661,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pelicans15c1,807$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.691,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Pelicans21c1,800$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,421.9221538.1%82 W · 133 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf36b…7773backed Pelicans3c1,767$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,706.99560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+568.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Pelicans22c1,750$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,36546632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Pelicans20c1,732$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.41,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Rockets77c1,687$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.8985344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Pelicans22c1,675$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.4344459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Pelicans20c1,653$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.31,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Rockets65c1,548$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00019136.1%69 W · 122 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Rockets67c1,500$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0051,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Rockets78c1,411$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.2346847.4%222 W · 246 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Pelicans21c1,400$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10661835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7591…9829backed Rockets77c1,396$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.434544.4%20 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3529…a599backed Pelicans36c1,393$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.877445.9%34 W · 40 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Pelicans36c1,390$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.4438649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Pelicans15c1,322$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.3750838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Pelicans23c1,304$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.3540243.8%176 W · 226 L-1.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9909…b90cbacked Rockets77c1,300$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00120839.4%82 W · 126 L-0.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Pelicans28c1,284$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.951,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc4b…7b6fbacked Rockets77c1,273$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.2110554.3%57 W · 48 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked Rockets79c1,269$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00027163.5%172 W · 99 L+0.9wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x180f…87fdbacked Rockets13c1,262$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.651136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Pelicans28c1,251$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.419444.7%42 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Rockets76c1,200$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91611649.1%57 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12fd…90c0backed Pelicans22c1,166$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.228439.8%113 W · 171 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Rockets76c1,149$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.062,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Rockets78c1,144$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.0573647.3%348 W · 388 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8525…bdbabacked Rockets44c1,142$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.8712941.1%53 W · 76 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a90…7bf8backed Rockets78c1,125$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.59260.9%56 W · 36 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.