NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c0884c5860b94d868ab0a6d6039815230f387f51fa231e28e1c768da0f299c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Rockets, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Pelicans | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Rockets | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Pelicans | 53c | 514.41$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.77 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 54c | 507.2$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.7 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Rockets | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Pelicans | 70c | 333$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.2 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rockets | 30c | 303$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Pelicans | 55c | 126.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Rockets | 45c | 83.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…67cbbacked Rockets | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rockets | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Rockets | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe665…eefabacked Rockets | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Pelicans | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…11ecbacked Pelicans | 55c | 36.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Rockets | 47c | 36.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 139 | 45.3%63 W · 76 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Rockets | 47c | 27.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Pelicans | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-10.5)this page
- Rockets vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Rockets vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Rockets vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Rockets (-11.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.