TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9909…b90c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
250
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: WNBA, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category WNBA at 57 out of 100; worst Tweets at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT20839.4%82 W · 126 L-0.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 208 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$775Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+61.4%+$475.43
Bulls vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,524Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+28%+$426.5
Thunder vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,153Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+51.8%+$597
Warriors vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,953Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,953.05
Pacers vs. Magicbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$5,469Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+40.3%+$2,204.13
Cavaliers vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$14,060Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$14,059.93
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$777Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+48.8%+$378.99
76ers vs. Kingsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$13,201Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$3,798.9
Clippers vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$4,081Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+59.3%+$2,419.13
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$927Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+64.4%+$597.08
Suns vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$11,093Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+46.8%+$5,195.03
Spurs vs. Clippersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$13,431Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+34%+$4,568.69
Jazz vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$62.65
Warriors vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+34.8%+$42.56
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$30.2
Celtics vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+39.6%+$53.85
Hornets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.3
Suns vs. Bucksbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+71.2%+$20.8
Celtics vs. Sunsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+41.9%+$106.29
Trail Blazers vs. Sunsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+30.9%+$25.6
Raptors vs. Bucksbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$258Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+36.8%+$94.9
Pacers vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+68.6%+$36.81
Pacers vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+57.5%+$76.29
76ers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$63.31
Showing 25 of 208 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1560%9 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,101Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+36.5%+$401.48
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$866Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$379.91
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+38.8%+$53.68
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$638Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+64.6%+$412.09
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$809Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$809.37
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+41.1%+$32.67
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$667Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$666.72
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,275Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+39%+$497.95
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$457Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$457.45
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+41.5%+$137.06
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.55
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.7
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.02
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+41.7%+$30.33
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$40.23
All 15 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT1090%9 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick68cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
WNBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyriesbacked Golden State Valkyries · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+86%+$70.2
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempobacked Toronto Tempo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+33.9%+$50.67
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyriesbacked Golden State Valkyries · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+47.7%+$64.6
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Feverbacked Phoenix Mercury · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+45%+$54.9
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Acesbacked New York Liberty · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+43%+$61.67
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sunbacked Connecticut Sun · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+40.7%+$57.85
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Acesbacked Las Vegas Aces · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$47.83
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dreambacked Atlanta Dream · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+58.2%+$73.56
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyriesbacked Minnesota Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+55.5%+$71.4
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sunbacked Connecticut Sun · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.73
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST1020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-67.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. South Carolina Gamecocksbacked South Carolina Gamecocks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$413Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+87.4%+$360.58
Michigan Wolverines vs. Purdue Boilermakersbacked Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+34.4%+$31.99
Michigan State Spartans vs. Oregon Ducksbacked Oregon Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$10.08
Utah Utes vs. Kansas State Wildcatsbacked Utah Utes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$10.12
DePaul Blue Demons vs. Butler Bulldogsbacked DePaul Blue Demons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$10.08
Seton Hall Pirates vs. St. John's Red Stormbacked Seton Hall Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10.08
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Duquesne Dukesbacked Duquesne Dukes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10.07
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Western Michigan Broncosbacked Western Michigan Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Ohio State Buckeyesbacked Minnesota Golden Gophers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10.08
Akron Zips vs. Buffalo Bullsbacked Buffalo Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10.12
All 10 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.