Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c6b1d127dcddd321eaa76fa68c0535bb5c8363fb8981a97b32a792818a7af1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $543,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $548,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $543,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 523 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 6c | 36,736$2,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,146.44 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 23c | 14,922$3,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,489.91 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 55c | 11,121$6,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,095.61 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 57c | 10,216$5,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,782.52 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked No | 66c | 9,963$6,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,435.73 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 59c | 7,943$4,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,678.95 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked No | 61c | 6,354$3,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,458.25 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 43c | 5,336$2,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,065.13 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…af41backed No | 75c | 5,164$3,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.09 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 52c | 4,711$2,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,461.09 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…704abacked Yes | 1c | 4,521$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 38c | 4,192$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.78 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 48c | 3,969$1,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,056.43 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes | 49c | 3,785$1,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,857.82 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 60c | 3,722$2,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.01 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 13c | 3,563$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.85 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…9a2abacked Yes | 52c | 3,342$1,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,748.33 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…9a07backed No | 43c | 3,339$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.54 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 3,220$1,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,792.17 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 62c | 3,087$1,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,919 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9429…c151backed Yes | 62c | 3,077$1,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901.45 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 31c | 3,056$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,118.02 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd79a…9167backed Yes | 7c | 3,001$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.65 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…6d35backed Yes | 48c | 2,741$1,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,323.2 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Yes | 40c | 2,740$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.63 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +124%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 7c | 2,681$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,490.49 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 37c | 2,673$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.73 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e2…77e1backed No | 36c | 2,646$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.44 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 252 | 11.5%29 W · 223 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked No | 25c | 2,311$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.18 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 52c | 2,293$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.18 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 40c | 2,080$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.99 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 37c | 2,070$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.1 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9476…28bcbacked Yes | 46c | 2,067$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.2 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 29c | 2,006$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.03 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed No | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.99 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…dbd4backed No | 66c | 1,980$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.82 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 41c | 1,950$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 55c | 1,926$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.53 | 138 | 17.4%24 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 1,855$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.78 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 44c | 1,820$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.25 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 55c | 1,804$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.5 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064b…eae5backed No | 42c | 1,706$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.54 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 36c | 1,674$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.93 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 66c | 1,640$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.59 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 41c | 1,606$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.94 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed No | 78c | 1,590$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.6 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 49c | 1,460$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.24 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 60c | 1,431$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.87 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 43c | 1,390$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.46 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 41c | 1,352$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.57 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd15a…80dbbacked Yes | 63c | 1,351$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.65 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 61c | 1,315$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.19 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e06…557bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,290$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 4c | 1,256$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 111 | 11.7%13 W · 98 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa43e…ec90backed Yes | 42c | 1,243$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.88 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 13c | 1,230$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 9cpaid | +299.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 60c | 1,200$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.36 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9909…b90cbacked Yes | 56c | 1,185$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.72 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…136dbacked Yes | 53c | 1,164$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.15 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 41c | 1,159$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.79 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 48c | 1,122$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.76 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd04…2599backed Yes | 53c | 1,087$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.88 | 168 | 17.3%29 W · 139 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b85…a3e9backed Yes | 63c | 1,078$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 42c | 1,064$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.61 | 216 | 14.8%32 W · 184 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 51c | 1,032$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.7 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b4…3cf1backed No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 17c | 985.2$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.85 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 57c | 974.67$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.88 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 28c | 969.19$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.13 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 43c | 920.01$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.95 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 15c | 888.01$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.81 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes | 38c | 887.58$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.56 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Yes | 61c | 876.63$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.21 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…06edbacked Yes | 56c | 873.25$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.46 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…6b9bbacked Yes | 22c | 852.74$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.6 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…06bdbacked Yes | 65c | 847.96$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 35c | 846.54$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.13 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…caf0backed Yes | 74c | 840.44$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.94 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 73c | 823.23$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.98 | 177 | 17.5%31 W · 146 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…c49cbacked Yes | 13c | 786.6$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.89 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes | 44c | 780.31$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.64 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 62c | 770.42$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.65 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 700$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 55c | 695.76$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.9 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d31…32ccbacked Yes | 71c | 677.53$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 26c | 675.78$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.64 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…a932backed Yes | 59c | 668.55$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.8 | 89 | 25.8%23 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 64c | 649.19$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.37 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a4…6f4dbacked Yes | 70c | 616.6$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.57 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 32c | 616.21$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.32 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4e…e3a2backed No | 23c | 601.45$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.92 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…5962backed Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…3b56backed Yes | 59c | 600$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x967d…ddd4backed Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.