TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$543,587
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$548,789

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $543,587 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 523 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes6c36,736$2,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,146.441,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes23c14,922$3,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,489.9163414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes55c11,121$6,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,095.6156329.8%168 W · 395 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes57c10,216$5,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,782.5257222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked No66c9,963$6,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,435.7314332.9%47 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes59c7,943$4,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,678.9531722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x456a…9d4bbacked No61c6,354$3,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,458.255930.5%18 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No43c5,336$2,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,065.1328025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8fb…af41backed No75c5,164$3,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.096839.7%27 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes52c4,711$2,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,461.0928526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30cf…704abacked Yes1c4,521$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.689348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes38c4,192$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.7839723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No48c3,969$1,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,056.4359225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes49c3,785$1,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,857.8214219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes60c3,722$2,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,219.0153222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes13c3,563$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.851717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb19…9a2abacked Yes52c3,342$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,748.336825%17 W · 51 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e9c…9a07backed No43c3,339$1,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,896.545334%18 W · 35 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes56c3,220$1,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,792.1722926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes62c3,087$1,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,91915136.4%55 W · 96 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9429…c151backed Yes62c3,077$1,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,901.451656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No31c3,056$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,118.0215844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd79a…9167backed Yes7c3,001$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.653630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes2c3,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6038811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6d4…6d35backed Yes48c2,741$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,323.21822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a70…76b5backed Yes40c2,740$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.634231%13 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+124%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed No7c2,681$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,490.497820.5%16 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes37c2,673$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.7387618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30e2…77e1backed No36c2,646$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.448630.2%26 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025211.5%29 W · 223 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked No25c2,311$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.1830317.2%52 W · 251 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes52c2,293$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.1831621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes40c2,080$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.9929227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes37c2,070$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.145511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9476…28bcbacked Yes46c2,067$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.211838.1%45 W · 73 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes29c2,006$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.0363021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed No35c2,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.9936411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3237…dbd4backed No66c1,980$1,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.822725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Yes41c1,950$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.51546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes55c1,926$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.5313817.4%24 W · 114 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c1,855$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.782,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes44c1,820$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.2587917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes55c1,804$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.513844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x064b…eae5backed No42c1,706$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.547439.2%29 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes36c1,674$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.9346521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes66c1,640$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.5938828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes41c1,606$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.9457420.9%120 W · 454 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No78c1,590$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.617631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes3c1,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes49c1,460$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.2438614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes60c1,431$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.8733527.8%93 W · 242 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes43c1,390$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.4646137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No41c1,352$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.5720735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd15a…80dbbacked Yes63c1,351$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.652373.9%17 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick71cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes61c1,315$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.1932613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e06…557bbacked Yes18c1,290$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.15425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes4c1,256$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7811111.7%13 W · 98 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+93.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No8c1,250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,15012528%35 W · 90 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+55.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa43e…ec90backed Yes42c1,243$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.883745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed Yes13c1,230$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.92128.6%6 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.20per pick9cpaid+299.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes60c1,200$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.3617628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9909…b90cbacked Yes56c1,185$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.721560%9 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf48…136dbacked Yes53c1,164$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.155326.4%14 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No41c1,159$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.7962539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes48c1,122$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.7641230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes53c1,087$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.8816817.3%29 W · 139 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b85…a3e9backed Yes63c1,078$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.340%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes42c1,064$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.6121614.8%32 W · 184 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes51c1,032$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.71,1908.7%104 W · 1,086 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92b4…3cf1backed No20c1,000$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8004932.7%16 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No10c1,000$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9002218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+44.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes28c1,000$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28562412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed No17c985.2$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.8512429%36 W · 88 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+110.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed Yes57c974.67$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.8815649.4%77 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked No28c969.19$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.136097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No43c920.01$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.9550319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No15c888.01$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.818320.5%17 W · 66 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes38c887.58$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.567126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Yes61c876.63$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.212387%20 W · 3 L+5.0wins+0.22per pick65cpaid+35.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x2749…06edbacked Yes56c873.25$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.467432.4%24 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ee…6b9bbacked Yes22c852.74$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.65416.7%9 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92bf…06bdbacked Yes65c847.96$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.34850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes35c846.54$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.131,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e76…caf0backed Yes74c840.44$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.941735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes73c823.23$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.9817717.5%31 W · 146 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc194…c49cbacked Yes13c786.6$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.89837.2%6 W · 77 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes44c780.31$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.649627.1%26 W · 70 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes62c770.42$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.6513430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes62c700$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43542628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes55c695.76$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.925012.8%32 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d31…32ccbacked Yes71c677.53$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.691154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed No26c675.78$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.649233.7%31 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cea…a932backed Yes59c668.55$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.88925.8%23 W · 66 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes64c649.19$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.3723819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21a4…6f4dbacked Yes70c616.6$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.571957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed Yes32c616.21$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.327337%27 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed No23c601.45$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.929921.2%21 W · 78 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick13cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5605…5962backed Yes17c600$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…3b56backed Yes59c600$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x967d…ddd4backed Yes17c600$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022035%7 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+45.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.