Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbfd719cada7213cc28fd07c69862a4d39296beed4648204964be0518a129986
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $609,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $602,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $609,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 429 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 5c | 17,834$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.81 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 19c | 15,431$3,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,430.42 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 76c | 12,574$9,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,542.76 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes | 49c | 11,102$5,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,685.33 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 0c | 9,645$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 12c | 9,584$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,433.78 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 38c | 9,345$3,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,805.65 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…2917backed Yes | 14c | 7,564$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,523.19 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…d5a6backed No | 3c | 5,379$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.96 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 39c | 5,141$1,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,146.88 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d63…1b7fbacked No | 35c | 4,768$1,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,658.47 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed No | 65c | 4,672$3,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,041.5 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 30c | 4,250$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,964.24 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,819.99 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 54c | 3,906$2,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,105.01 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 36c | 3,620$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,334.21 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 16c | 3,597$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,009.45 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 37c | 3,396$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,137.36 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 73c | 3,324$2,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,425.14 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 5c | 3,307$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,153.08 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 13c | 3,209$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,778.11 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 3,195$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,972.21 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 25c | 3,186$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.69 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9429…c151backed No | 70c | 2,994$2,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,106.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 18c | 2,903$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,377.65 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 23c | 2,855$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,210.7 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 22c | 2,717$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,105.64 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…44a5backed Yes | 33c | 2,572$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.17 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 23c | 2,517$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,936.26 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…0b8dbacked Yes | 43c | 2,499$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 20c | 2,436$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958.07 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 36c | 2,433$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.08 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,421$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,361.42 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 24c | 2,201$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664.02 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 8c | 1,914$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,751.92 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa43e…ec90backed No | 79c | 1,793$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.82 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 26c | 1,789$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.09 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes | 38c | 1,750$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.4 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 62c | 1,741$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.72 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…765abacked No | 78c | 1,716$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.37 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 71cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked No | 1c | 1,700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeec3…c2a0backed No | 64c | 1,640$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.93 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 40c | 1,624$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.05 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 27c | 1,616$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.44 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…7954backed No | 61c | 1,576$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,454.99 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Yes | 31c | 1,498$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.94 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +124%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…0c3bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,470$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.89 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,468$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.69 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked Yes | 6c | 1,438$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.01 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 37c | 1,411$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.92 | 216 | 14.8%32 W · 184 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 24c | 1,252$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.97 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 14c | 1,210$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.24 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,170$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.93 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 29c | 1,129$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.36 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…9a07backed Yes | 43c | 1,102$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.84 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 9c | 1,100$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed No | 77c | 1,080$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.32 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,060$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.2 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…a88cbacked No | 79c | 1,052$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.78 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,012$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.94 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.6 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.4 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb33e…cd0abacked Yes | 47c | 991.13$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.15 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes | 16c | 892$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.64 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked No | 77c | 883.73$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.44 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…8fcebacked Yes | 34c | 871.43$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.99 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes | 13c | 859.5$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.05 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…70d2backed Yes | 16c | 838.81$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.98 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67b…af43backed Yes | 29c | 831.13$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.58 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 12c | 815.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.63 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0759…a93dbacked Yes | 23c | 762.21$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.2 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 31c | 754.13$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.15 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a4…6f4dbacked Yes | 71c | 745.49$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.11 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd04…2599backed Yes | 22c | 706.52$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.6 | 168 | 17.3%29 W · 139 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 8c | 700$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.5 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x102b…a7acbacked Yes | 30c | 699.45$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.69 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 9c | 686.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.36 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…3a90backed Yes | 44c | 679.99$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.21 | 118 | 26.3%31 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 673.95$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 27c | 650.51$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.43 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 14c | 619.44$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.47 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 14c | 603.39$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.46 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 600$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfafe…2e34backed Yes | 48c | 599.14$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.55 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 45c | 596.25$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.71 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…a932backed Yes | 59c | 594.96$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.53 | 89 | 25.8%23 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes | 16c | 577.57$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.98 | 135 | 17.8%24 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes | 30c | 564.75$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.98 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…3862backed Yes | 38c | 559.06$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 36c | 555.71$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.08 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 17c | 542.55$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.92 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 76c | 531.73$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.42 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 60c | 527.82$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.98 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes | 18c | 522.41$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.65 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x960b…9303backed Yes | 44c | 512.3$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.38 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes | 12c | 502.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.81 | 81 | 9.9%8 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…9a2abacked Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b4…3cf1backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.