TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$609,615
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$602,819

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $609,615 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 429 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x849c…4009backed No5c17,834$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.811,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes19c15,431$3,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,430.4229331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No76c12,574$9,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,542.7656429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes49c11,102$5,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,685.3314219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No0c9,645$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5815844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes12c9,584$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,433.784816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes38c9,345$3,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,805.6557222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes14c7,564$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,523.1910829.6%32 W · 76 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd44c…d5a6backed No3c5,379$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.961560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes39c5,141$1,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,146.8863414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d63…1b7fbacked No35c4,768$1,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,658.472462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No65c4,672$3,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,041.517631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes30c4,250$1,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,964.2423819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes5c4,000$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,819.9936411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No54c3,906$2,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,105.0159225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes36c3,620$1,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,334.2153522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e82…77acbacked Yes16c3,597$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,009.4515925.2%40 W · 119 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes37c3,396$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.3639723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No73c3,324$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,425.1428025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes5c3,307$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,153.085628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes13c3,209$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,778.1188018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes38c3,195$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,972.2122926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No25c3,186$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.691546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9429…c151backed No70c2,994$2,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,106.61656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes18c2,903$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,377.6557621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes23c2,855$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,210.763821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes22c2,717$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,105.6417126.9%46 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be3…44a5backed Yes33c2,572$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,735.174233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes23c2,517$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,936.2646521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9941…0b8dbacked Yes43c2,499$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.81442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes20c2,436$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,958.0788017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes36c2,433$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.0832613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes2c2,421$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,361.4210322.3%23 W · 80 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+59.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes24c2,201$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,664.0238614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes10c2,000$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,79828016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes8c1,914$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,751.921,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa43e…ec90backed No79c1,793$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.823745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes26c1,789$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.091,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes38c1,750$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.45418.5%10 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes62c1,741$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.7266222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8849…765abacked No78c1,716$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.372290.9%20 W · 2 L+4.3wins+0.19per pick71cpaid+28.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked No1c1,700$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.612424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xeec3…c2a0backed No64c1,640$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.935749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes40c1,624$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.0531621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes27c1,616$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,172.4445511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22ac…7954backed No61c1,576$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.05742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick66cpaid-40.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes3c1,500$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,454.9938811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a70…76b5backed Yes31c1,498$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.944231%13 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+124%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96f9…0c3bbacked Yes25c1,470$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.892227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes27c1,468$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.6913844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes6c1,438$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.0112825.8%33 W · 95 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+50.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes37c1,411$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.9221614.8%32 W · 184 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No24c1,252$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.978320.5%17 W · 66 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes14c1,210$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.2424815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes26c1,170$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.9325012.8%32 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes29c1,129$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.361,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e9c…9a07backed Yes43c1,102$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.845334%18 W · 35 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes9c1,100$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00525311.5%29 W · 224 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed No77c1,080$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.3238828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes13c1,060$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.217917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a41…a88cbacked No79c1,052$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.784351.2%22 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes5c1,012$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.9413713.1%18 W · 119 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes7c1,000$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.631722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes20c1,000$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.462412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb33e…cd0abacked Yes47c991.13$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.152711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes16c892$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.6419124.6%47 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked No77c883.73$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.4418726.7%50 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee76…8fcebacked Yes34c871.43$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.994517.8%8 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes13c859.5$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.0512332.5%40 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b2a…70d2backed Yes16c838.81$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.984429.5%13 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes29c831.13$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.5815922.6%36 W · 123 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes12c815.33$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.6348819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0759…a93dbacked Yes23c762.21$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.23933.3%13 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes31c754.13$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.1550319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21a4…6f4dbacked Yes71c745.49$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.111957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes22c706.52$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.616817.3%29 W · 139 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes8c700$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.525617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x102b…a7acbacked Yes30c699.45$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.693823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes9c686.68$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.36937.5%7 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2194…3a90backed Yes44c679.99$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.2111826.3%31 W · 87 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes40c673.95$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4072,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes27c650.51$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.4320226.7%54 W · 148 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes14c619.44$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.4712216.4%20 W · 102 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes14c603.39$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.4634425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes28c600$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43242628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfafe…2e34backed Yes48c599.14$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.554129.3%12 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes45c596.25$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.7128526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cea…a932backed Yes59c594.96$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.538925.8%23 W · 66 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes16c577.57$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.9813517.8%24 W · 111 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes30c564.75$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.989627.1%26 W · 70 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3234…3862backed Yes38c559.06$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.84333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes36c555.71$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.0841230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes17c542.55$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.9249919%95 W · 404 L-1.7wins0.00per pick19cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked No76c531.73$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.4212932.6%42 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No60c527.82$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.9820735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes18c522.41$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.654920.4%10 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x960b…9303backed Yes44c512.3$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.386021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes12c502.08$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.81819.9%8 W · 73 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb19…9a2abacked Yes38c500$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3106825%17 W · 51 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92b4…3cf1backed No20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004932.7%16 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.