Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3df6d1aa132443666db06d75496260ed0303cdc9fed941bfe333717f2e0a56c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $775,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $627,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $775,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 0c | 50,084$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 0c | 33,004$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 0c | 32,699$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.65 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 29,078$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.42 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…fec8backed Yes | 0c | 9,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 2c | 8,914$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.21 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e2…77e1backed Yes | 3c | 8,370$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.17 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa376…c17dbacked Yes | 0c | 8,200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb087…6658backed Yes | 1c | 7,001$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.67 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,751$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.8 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 5c | 4,847$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.66 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…a200backed Yes | 0c | 4,520$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 3c | 4,400$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 2c | 3,803$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…5910backed Yes | 0c | 3,717$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 119 | 6.7%8 W · 111 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes | 1c | 3,385$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 2c | 3,156$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 2c | 3,143$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 2c | 3,114$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 16c | 2,957$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.29 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 24c | 2,582$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.96 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,564$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,517$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4954…ac42backed Yes | 1c | 2,403$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 1c | 2,403$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…2917backed Yes | 4c | 2,376$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…57b2backed Yes | 1c | 2,351$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 84 | 9.5%8 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +105%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 9c | 2,317$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.72 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,312$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.81 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e8…db25backed Yes | 1c | 2,279$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 2,269$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…98c3backed Yes | 3c | 2,229$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 1c | 2,207$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,196$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 109 | 17.4%19 W · 90 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 1,991$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,906$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 1c | 1,835$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 8c | 1,807$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.44 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,762$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.58 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…dbd4backed Yes | 28c | 1,728$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.69 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,716$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 81 | 9.9%8 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3c…1a17backed Yes | 5c | 1,567$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 3c | 1,531$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.94 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…8229backed Yes | 1c | 1,385$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 177 | 22.6%40 W · 137 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf366…425ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,357$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.98 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4c…60a7backed Yes | 1c | 1,260$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes | 1c | 1,252$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 11c | 1,229$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.94 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…9eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,227$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ad…f1c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,170$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3df…ef57backed Yes | 1c | 1,147$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…0ce1backed Yes | 5c | 1,116$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 5c | 1,104$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…95b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,096$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 9c | 1,089$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 4c | 999.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes | 1c | 992.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 1c | 961.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes | 3c | 945.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 135 | 17.8%24 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe292…a52abacked Yes | 3c | 873.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 865.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…ac16backed Yes | 1c | 849.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…3bc2backed Yes | 4c | 720.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 5c | 700$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ac…7784backed Yes | 2c | 629.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes | 5c | 624.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5347…95f2backed Yes | 15c | 620.37$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 78c | 585.03$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67b…af43backed Yes | 3c | 555.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…06fabacked Yes | 10c | 517.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 28c | 501.76$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.16 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd04…2599backed Yes | 15c | 489.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 168 | 17.3%29 W · 139 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 17c | 459.83$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 3c | 427.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…fae3backed Yes | 10c | 422.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…394dbacked Yes | 18c | 412.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a6…8591backed Yes | 3c | 403.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…9b49backed No | 76c | 397.15$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.34 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 14c | 391.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…c49cbacked Yes | 11c | 362.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cac…9127backed Yes | 28c | 362.14$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf096…28a8backed Yes | 16c | 348.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 105 | 30.5%32 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 4c | 326.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 199 | 33.2%66 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 326.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…c7e0backed Yes | 6c | 318.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f8…decebacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 8c | 285.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…2004backed Yes | 23c | 279.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed No | 73c | 274.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 7c | 267.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb2…83b5backed Yes | 7c | 259.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes | 18c | 250$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc13…c991backed Yes | 14c | 249.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 161 | 24.2%39 W · 122 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.