TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$775,739
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$627,681

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $775,739 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes0c50,084$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3420226.7%54 W · 148 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes0c33,004$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.923819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes0c32,699$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.651,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes2c29,078$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.421,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4012429%36 W · 88 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+110.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfdaa…fec8backed Yes0c9,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275529.1%16 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes2c8,914$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.2157222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e2…77e1backed Yes3c8,370$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.178630.2%26 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa376…c17dbacked Yes0c8,200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb087…6658backed Yes1c7,001$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.672321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+70.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes2c5,751$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.832613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes5c4,847$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.665628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9480…a200backed Yes0c4,520$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.415928.8%17 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes3c4,400$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12236411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes2c3,803$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.28937.5%7 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes0c3,717$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21196.7%8 W · 111 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-76.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes1c3,385$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.499317.2%16 W · 77 L-0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes2c3,156$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2345511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes2c3,143$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0912117.4%21 W · 100 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes2c3,114$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5222926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes16c2,957$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.2922610.6%24 W · 202 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes24c2,582$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.9639723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes3c2,564$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2925012.8%32 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes2c2,517$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.110322.3%23 W · 80 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+59.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4954…ac42backed Yes1c2,403$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.241030%3 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes1c2,403$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.033844.7%18 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes4c2,376$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0410829.6%32 W · 76 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes1c2,351$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.86849.5%8 W · 76 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+105%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes9c2,317$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.7248819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes3c2,312$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8112114%17 W · 104 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes1c2,279$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.414816.7%8 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c2,269$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.811,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeb4…98c3backed Yes3c2,229$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.85248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-84.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes1c2,207$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7822023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes1c2,196$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1410917.4%19 W · 90 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes1c1,991$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7979811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes4c1,906$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8228016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes1c1,835$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6613713.1%18 W · 119 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes8c1,807$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.4488018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes23c1,762$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.5817126.9%46 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3237…dbd4backed Yes28c1,728$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.692725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes5c1,716$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.45819.9%8 W · 73 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b3c…1a17backed Yes5c1,567$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.07273.7%1 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-90.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes3c1,531$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7438614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes21c1,500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.9431621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1538811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes1c1,385$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2217722.6%40 W · 137 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf366…425ebacked Yes18c1,357$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.986127.9%17 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes1c1,300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.142719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e4c…60a7backed Yes1c1,260$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.32321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes1c1,252$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8319124.6%47 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes11c1,229$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.941,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd805…9eaabacked Yes2c1,227$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.855616.1%9 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83ad…f1c0backed Yes1c1,170$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.264719.1%9 W · 38 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-56.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3df…ef57backed Yes1c1,147$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.32333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+43.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e40…0ce1backed Yes5c1,116$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.93225%8 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes5c1,104$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6888017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa1…95b4backed Yes2c1,096$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.085920.3%12 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes9c1,089$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4417728.2%50 W · 127 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes4c999.97$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes1c992.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.98633.7%29 W · 57 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes1c961.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9665311%72 W · 581 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes3c945.79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0913517.8%24 W · 111 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe292…a52abacked Yes3c873.71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0980%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes6c865.58$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7757621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14b2…ac16backed Yes1c849.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.372020%4 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa5…3bc2backed Yes4c720.96$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.527037.1%26 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes2c700$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.221220.3%43 W · 169 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+610.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes5c700$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7527417.5%48 W · 226 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48ac…7784backed Yes2c629.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8810923.9%26 W · 83 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes5c624.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.979921.2%21 W · 78 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick13cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5347…95f2backed Yes15c620.37$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.47825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked No78c585.03$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.716097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes3c555.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9715922.6%36 W · 123 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdac…06fabacked Yes10c517.75$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.94378.1%3 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes28c501.76$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1632529.2%95 W · 230 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2516716.2%27 W · 140 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes15c489.41$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2116817.3%29 W · 139 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes17c459.83$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.678111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…77acbacked Yes3c427.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7315925.2%40 W · 119 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6569…fae3backed Yes10c422.21$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.665242.3%22 W · 30 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89cc…394dbacked Yes18c412.88$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.615635.7%20 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67a6…8591backed Yes3c403.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes9c400$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd897…9b49backed No76c397.15$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.346157.4%35 W · 26 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes14c391.96$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2563821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc194…c49cbacked Yes11c362.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.04837.2%6 W · 77 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cac…9127backed Yes28c362.14$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.943818.4%7 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf096…28a8backed Yes16c348.08$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6910530.5%32 W · 73 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb627…d968backed Yes4c326.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5419933.2%66 W · 133 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes21c326.43$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.272,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa80…c7e0backed Yes6c318.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.113537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05f8…decebacked Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-67.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes8c285.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4924617.5%43 W · 203 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea7b…2004backed Yes23c279.87$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.616322.2%14 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1851…7016backed No73c274.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.351656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes7c267.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9234215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2fb2…83b5backed Yes7c259.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.144422.7%10 W · 34 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes18c250$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.57126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes14c249.94$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6516124.2%39 W · 122 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.