TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa376…c17d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Tennis, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 54 out of 100; worst Lol at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,434Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,434
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.4%+$4.31
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.95
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.99
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$217
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.39
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$126.75
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+58.2%+$84.27
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.3
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+495.2%+$690.54
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.2
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$154
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.93
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+152.5%+$84.56
All 15 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+64.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bordeaux: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Quentin Halysbacked Botic van de Zandschulp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.79
Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ilya Ivashkabacked Ilya Ivashka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$62
Bengaluru 2 (Doubles): Biryukov/Lomakin vs Kalyanpur/Mukundbacked Biryukov/Lomakin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+137.5%+$142.44
Paris: Madison Keys vs Sarah Rakotomangabacked Sarah Rakotomanga · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$270
Parma: Solana Sierra vs Dayana Yastremskabacked Dayana Yastremska · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+607.1%+$600.98
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauffbacked Sorana Cirstea · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Parma: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Dayana Yastremskabacked Hanne Vandewinkel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Oeiras 4: Cristian Garin vs Lautaro Midonbacked Lautaro Midon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$246
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Learner Tienbacked Learner Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Oeiras 4: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smithbacked Colton Smith · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$79
Jiujiang: Cody Wong vs Xinxin Yaobacked Cody Wong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Jiujiang: Mark Lajal vs Fajing Sunbacked Mark Lajal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.8
All 12 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+270.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Mls Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Mls — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-05-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-05-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chicago Sky vs. Golden State Valkyriesbacked Chicago Sky · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+525%+$170.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$249
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wild vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+400%+$240
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+329%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+329%+$45.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+25%+$5.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-05-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group Abacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.