TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Tennis · resolved market

Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Learner Tien

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rafael Jodarof Rafael Jodar, Learner Tien
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$626,509
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$763,400

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $626,509 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 264 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Learner Tien11c56,504$6,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,085.28,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5af4…a7dfbacked Rafael Jodar80c49,000$39,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,8005030%15 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Learner Tien12c31,385$3,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,783.924,27745%1,925 W · 2,352 L+21.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf3…e802backed Learner Tien8c30,000$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,389.8847728.1%134 W · 343 L+18.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b52…568ebacked Rafael Jodar79c29,108$23,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,107.5220459.3%121 W · 83 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed Learner Tien20c24,075$4,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,815.0221642.6%92 W · 124 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Learner Tien8c14,863$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.029,16136.1%3,309 W · 5,852 L-202.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76cc…fbbcbacked Learner Tien19c12,875$2,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,392.6713427.6%37 W · 97 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1bf…492ebacked Rafael Jodar80c10,063$8,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,012.52646.2%12 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Learner Tien20c10,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004,09039.8%1,628 W · 2,462 L+95.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08f0…b809backed Learner Tien21c9,695$1,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,987.515442.6%23 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Learner Tien20c8,148$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.512,54838.5%982 W · 1,566 L+96.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Learner Tien1c7,777$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.991,2078%96 W · 1,111 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Rafael Jodar77c7,662$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,762.3417452.9%92 W · 82 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Learner Tien20c6,492$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.071,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Learner Tien24c6,250$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5008721.8%19 W · 68 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Learner Tien10c6,000$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.134,78449.6%2,372 W · 2,412 L+177.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x837c…5771backed Learner Tien9c5,556$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked Rafael Jodar80c5,267$4,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.271,04058.2%605 W · 435 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Rafael Jodar79c5,012$3,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.51,28656.8%731 W · 555 L-16.9wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62ae…c975backed Learner Tien24c4,983$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20021537.2%80 W · 135 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Learner Tien20c4,881$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00080938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e9…1c08backed Rafael Jodar79c4,872$3,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.1314250.7%72 W · 70 L-14.6wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-21%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Rafael Jodar78c4,825$3,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.5964955.2%358 W · 291 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Learner Tien6c4,607$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.311,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Learner Tien22c4,000$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.9824643.9%108 W · 138 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Rafael Jodar79c3,945$3,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.451,21149.1%595 W · 616 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Learner Tien10c3,904$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.987,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Rafael Jodar79c3,817$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.9195368.2%650 W · 303 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Learner Tien3c3,511$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10063856.4%360 W · 278 L-1.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Learner Tien11c3,000$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.4745445.4%206 W · 248 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Learner Tien22c3,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66068935%241 W · 448 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Learner Tien14c2,917$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.511,77943.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L+20.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Learner Tien21c2,619$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501,88944.8%846 W · 1,043 L+36.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Learner Tien21c2,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52543142%181 W · 250 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Learner Tien21c2,381$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,88745.8%864 W · 1,023 L+52.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Learner Tien12c2,170$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.448,83442.5%3,758 W · 5,076 L-169.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Learner Tien23c2,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46029146%134 W · 157 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Learner Tien22c2,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4303,35948.5%1,630 W · 1,729 L-49.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d96…7c16backed Learner Tien21c2,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4208045%36 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cef…fa91backed Learner Tien21c2,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.9919339.4%76 W · 117 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x449c…eaf5backed Learner Tien19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.993243.8%14 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked Learner Tien20c1,962$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40012536%45 W · 80 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Learner Tien22c1,913$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.971,16144.3%514 W · 647 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Learner Tien22c1,900$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41827733.6%93 W · 184 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6e…99eabacked Learner Tien23c1,779$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.142516%4 W · 21 L-6.7wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-71.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Learner Tien23c1,661$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.0653843.5%234 W · 304 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b0…23a1backed Rafael Jodar78c1,407$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.053164.5%20 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed Learner Tien13c1,355$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.115133.3%17 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-40.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd410…3a1bbacked Learner Tien23c1,300$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.989839.8%39 W · 59 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Rafael Jodar78c1,295$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.2930153.8%162 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ee…47c8backed Learner Tien20c1,270$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25420261.4%124 W · 78 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Learner Tien20c1,250$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2507,77447.8%3,715 W · 4,059 L+40.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Rafael Jodar77c1,159$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.5973953.2%393 W · 346 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed Learner Tien10c1,144$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.3557321.8%125 W · 448 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec6…698bbacked Learner Tien5c1,125$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.468473.8%62 W · 22 L+24.4wins+0.29per pick45cpaid+68.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0x5192…df62backed Learner Tien5c1,093$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8912352.8%65 W · 58 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x15e9…26bebacked Learner Tien21c1,070$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.723343.8%102 W · 131 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4c3…60d9backed Rafael Jodar77c1,070$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.2714452.1%75 W · 69 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Learner Tien23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2308035%28 W · 52 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8644…ad01backed Rafael Jodar76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24026049.2%128 W · 132 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Rafael Jodar80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20021454.7%117 W · 97 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Learner Tien21c999.98$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21085634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Learner Tien5c994$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0958639.6%232 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8716…57c8backed Learner Tien23c991.38$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.023855.3%21 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x551d…9326backed Rafael Jodar80c972.44$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.4927739%108 W · 169 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6919…cc07backed Learner Tien14c961.9$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1305724.6%14 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-25.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Learner Tien8c932.9$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.073,73145.3%1,690 W · 2,041 L-3.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cb2…f12fbacked Rafael Jodar79c900$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18936961.8%228 W · 141 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Learner Tien9c898.13$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.792,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d50…d283backed Learner Tien6c879.49$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6726047.3%123 W · 137 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c2a…a4bbbacked Learner Tien24c833.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022638.1%86 W · 140 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Learner Tien12c777$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0356744.6%253 W · 314 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd069…fd13backed Learner Tien2c750$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Learner Tien21c715$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.1581047.9%388 W · 422 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4538…7d5cbacked Learner Tien22c689.73$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.7417738.4%68 W · 109 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Learner Tien20c672.08$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4278736%283 W · 504 L+36.1wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6353…777fbacked Learner Tien18c650.27$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202568%17 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Learner Tien11c627.04$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.65,04141.4%2,087 W · 2,954 L-83.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Learner Tien14c613$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7827531.6%87 W · 188 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Learner Tien20c608.06$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.271,42855%785 W · 643 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d91…40d3backed Learner Tien18c603.79$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9148730.8%150 W · 337 L+2.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Learner Tien22c599.97$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.9954746.8%256 W · 291 L+0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a3…3850backed Learner Tien7c599.18$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4885624.4%209 W · 647 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d93…0eccbacked Learner Tien17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003732.4%12 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Learner Tien21c512.13$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5562952.1%328 W · 301 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fae…0d19backed Rafael Jodar79c503.16$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.6642839.7%170 W · 258 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd179…74adbacked Rafael Jodar76c500.16$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.0428756.1%161 W · 126 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Learner Tien21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10534242.4%145 W · 197 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Rafael Jodar76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12025244.4%112 W · 140 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Learner Tien22c499.98$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.582,22945%1,002 W · 1,227 L+3.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Rafael Jodar77c453.38$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.2865157.1%372 W · 279 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6599…ac95backed Learner Tien3c439.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff50…3679backed Learner Tien23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002035%7 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa36c…5754backed Learner Tien23c429.83$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8642042.6%179 W · 241 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Learner Tien14c427.87$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0899244.7%443 W · 549 L-29.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88ff…78aebacked Learner Tien22c419.86$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3715928.9%46 W · 113 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-32.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bcf…ef2fbacked Learner Tien20c415$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839755.7%54 W · 43 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf859…c775backed Learner Tien4c408.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.522755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Learner Tien13c403.41$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.133065.8%217 W · 113 L+25.1wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+5.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.