Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb74374c579714699b06eda96424cc3fc57988d471ece6bf56b6201faf0ffdade
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jodarof Jodar, Tien
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f3c…2f57backed Jodar | 58c | 7,000$4,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,942 | 307 | 40.7%125 W · 182 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Tien | 42c | 6,900$2,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,898 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Jodar | 54c | 793.89$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.19 | 724 | 52.6%381 W · 343 L | +34.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Tien | 46c | 315.22$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Tien | 48c | 306.6$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.17 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…3f0bbacked Tien | 46c | 249.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Tien | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2e…f1c7backed Tien | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Jodar | 54c | 210$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Jodar | 52c | 206.62$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.18 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Jodar | 53c | 204.76$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.24 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Tien | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 416 | 44.5%185 W · 231 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Tien | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Jodar | 53c | 124.68$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d8…0c91backed Jodar | 54c | 104.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Jodar | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 240 | 55%132 W · 108 L | -15.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Tien | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +10.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Tien | 42c | 86.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…6679backed Jodar | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265e…327bbacked Tien | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Jodar | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Tien | 46c | 59.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Jodar | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 434 | 49.1%213 W · 221 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…a39bbacked Tien | 47c | 55.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b30…2209backed Jodar | 55c | 53.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…c407backed Tien | 47c | 52.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe321…b456backed Tien | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x208a…b3cfbacked Tien | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…698bbacked Jodar | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 84 | 73.8%62 W · 22 L | +24.4wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Jodar | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5)this page
- Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Learner TienRafael Jodar won
- Rafael Jodar vs. Learner Tien: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs TienJodar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.