TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Jiujiang: Mark Lajal vs Fajing Sun

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fajing Sunof Mark Lajal, Fajing Sun
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$118,324
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$135,692

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,324 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7402…8020backed Mark Lajal28c7,857$2,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1857526.7%20 W · 55 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Fajing Sun62c5,665$3,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,145.614,46667.7%3,023 W · 1,443 L+299.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Mark Lajal62c4,810$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00048851.6%252 W · 236 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Fajing Sun44c3,695$1,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,069.484,64749.3%2,291 W · 2,356 L+159.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Fajing Sun43c2,921$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,67111,32543.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L+18.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Mark Lajal63c2,624$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,644.544,87541.5%2,023 W · 2,852 L-77.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Mark Lajal56c2,474$1,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,390.556,59650.7%3,341 W · 3,255 L+259.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Mark Lajal54c2,424$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30062061.9%384 W · 236 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Fajing Sun44c2,343$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.0854345.3%246 W · 297 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Fajing Sun39c1,819$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.368,15245.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L+155.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e59…1520backed Fajing Sun47c1,702$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.4330744.6%137 W · 170 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Mark Lajal53c1,540$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.7213946.8%65 W · 74 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Mark Lajal46c1,383$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.252,39950.6%1,215 W · 1,184 L+76.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Fajing Sun23c1,249$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.1830225.8%78 W · 224 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Fajing Sun36c1,200$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.0553843.5%234 W · 304 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Mark Lajal51c1,166$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60046453%246 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Mark Lajal49c1,120$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.7814124.8%35 W · 106 L-10.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Mark Lajal40c1,031$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.8427247.4%129 W · 143 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f6…615bbacked Fajing Sun48c1,025$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.776845.6%31 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Fajing Sun44c895.45$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.4562345.4%283 W · 340 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Fajing Sun40c856.18$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.943,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Mark Lajal55c819.38$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45045935.5%163 W · 296 L-18.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Fajing Sun39c818$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.621,72552.2%901 W · 824 L-8.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Mark Lajal39c737.82$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.5250644.9%227 W · 279 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Fajing Sun55c691.41$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.745,28856.5%2,989 W · 2,299 L+231.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Mark Lajal58c674.85$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.939,23144.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L-241.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Fajing Sun59c667.41$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.448,72636.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L-187.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Fajing Sun41c612.68$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.6884963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc128…2217backed Fajing Sun49c612.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.2410655.7%59 W · 47 L+13.2wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+28.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed Fajing Sun40c543.69$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.7832240.7%131 W · 191 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Fajing Sun45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2751,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe479…70dfbacked Fajing Sun45c497.56$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.9515337.9%58 W · 95 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Fajing Sun47c489$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.175158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Mark Lajal63c476.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,84244.8%825 W · 1,017 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Mark Lajal50c455.18$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.8651441.8%215 W · 299 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Mark Lajal59c445.92$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.097,71047.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Fajing Sun43c417.68$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.614,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0828…a1a6backed Fajing Sun48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6727048.1%130 W · 140 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Fajing Sun50c400$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.22,75453.8%1,481 W · 1,273 L+71.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe612…ee20backed Fajing Sun37c400$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2529560%57 W · 38 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Fajing Sun46c400$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21541955.8%234 W · 185 L-0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Mark Lajal61c385$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.8515040%60 W · 90 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Fajing Sun38c349.7$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.611,63848.2%789 W · 849 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Mark Lajal39c332.31$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.12,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb188…8be3backed Fajing Sun44c328.16$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.1317643.8%77 W · 99 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c9…9ee4backed Fajing Sun45c310$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17135730.5%109 W · 248 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Fajing Sun39c300.01$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18345445.4%206 W · 248 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Fajing Sun47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15980153.1%425 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x982e…add6backed Mark Lajal73c297.33$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.8715938.4%61 W · 98 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…1ea8backed Mark Lajal55c285$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.7527732.1%89 W · 188 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b52…568ebacked Fajing Sun37c270.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.2720459.3%121 W · 83 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2978…b511backed Fajing Sun58c268.45$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.0241131.9%131 W · 280 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cee…0d1ebacked Fajing Sun39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4118849.5%93 W · 95 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5217…836fbacked Mark Lajal53c254.94$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Mark Lajal64c250$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1604,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a2a…420abacked Mark Lajal49c242.73$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick23cpaid-75.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Mark Lajal62c241.92$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.991,84445.7%843 W · 1,001 L+51.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x782c…38c2backed Fajing Sun45c220.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.9216063.8%102 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Fajing Sun71c220.37$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.323,63154.9%1,995 W · 1,636 L+110.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Mark Lajal44c215$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.72,11156.1%1,184 W · 927 L+42.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e4a…f43dbacked Fajing Sun22c213.39$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4113033.8%44 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5283…b53cbacked Fajing Sun48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.336943.5%30 W · 39 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Mark Lajal61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Mark Lajal61c199.98$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.991637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Mark Lajal64c191.33$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.721,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Mark Lajal53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3468…e71ebacked Mark Lajal54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005022%11 W · 39 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbb7c…82f2backed Mark Lajal55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012326.8%33 W · 90 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed Mark Lajal58c181.1$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.381,21955%670 W · 549 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd82d…7882backed Fajing Sun33c175.88$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.235137.3%19 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5f2…bb1dbacked Fajing Sun49c153.06$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.0616446.3%76 W · 88 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ac6…e020backed Fajing Sun36c150$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9634761.1%212 W · 135 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Fajing Sun45c149.09$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821,67250.1%837 W · 835 L+30.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91c8…3ba8backed Fajing Sun33c141.98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.851850%9 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+23.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1691…f891backed Fajing Sun47c137.88$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.8827567.3%185 W · 90 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Fajing Sun41c126.83$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.831,06231.8%338 W · 724 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…13f4backed Fajing Sun75c119.15$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1514851.4%76 W · 72 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e15…8ea4backed Mark Lajal35c113.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Mark Lajal61c112.95$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697,10049.7%3,530 W · 3,570 L+107.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Fajing Sun42c109$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.732,08252.3%1,088 W · 994 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe16c…9d62backed Fajing Sun39c102.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5635248.6%171 W · 181 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Fajing Sun49c102.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.1325245.2%114 W · 138 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Mark Lajal34c101.66$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354,41151.8%2,286 W · 2,125 L+137.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Fajing Sun49c101.3$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.236,74048.8%3,288 W · 3,452 L+58.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Fajing Sun20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8011747%55 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Fajing Sun28c99.4$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.42,33246.6%1,087 W · 1,245 L+55.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x137f…6689backed Mark Lajal71c98.21$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.71560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…6d49backed Fajing Sun39c97.82$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0da…67cdbacked Mark Lajal52c95.19$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.52020%4 W · 16 L-4.4wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-64.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Fajing Sun44c89.9$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.93,20440.5%1,299 W · 1,905 L+28.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Fajing Sun44c89.9$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.93,41239.1%1,335 W · 2,077 L-11.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d76…266abacked Fajing Sun17c88.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+495.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x112e…0d1fbacked Fajing Sun39c88.62$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0634965%227 W · 122 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Mark Lajal61c86.76$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1928348.4%137 W · 146 L+1.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed Fajing Sun49c85.4$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.212053.3%64 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be0…6deebacked Fajing Sun67c82.67$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.584431.8%14 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Mark Lajal27c82.16$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2960355.4%334 W · 269 L+19.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Mark Lajal41c80.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.471,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb14d…8f95backed Mark Lajal33c79.45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.471330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-48.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x86d0…904ebacked Mark Lajal40c79.09$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5323634.7%82 W · 154 L-37.4wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-45.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.