TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$289,897
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$315,985

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $289,897 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 394 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7712…155abacked No1c26,911$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.5515844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed No10c25,279$2,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,621.6811512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes49c13,780$6,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,026.0729331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed No2c10,200$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.997820.5%16 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes42c6,008$2,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,487.4317631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfafe…2e34backed No68c4,650$3,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,162.464129.3%12 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0170…a17cbacked Yes79c4,455$3,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.11666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes59c4,258$2,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.2710829.6%32 W · 76 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes68c3,896$2,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.9657222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x019f…1152backed No52c3,655$1,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,905.74131.7%13 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes66c2,582$1,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.0666222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fb7…9f50backed Yes43c2,566$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,452.941040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes70c2,261$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.753522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes69c2,207$1,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.7223819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes53c2,168$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.2346521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes62c2,000$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.639723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e9c…9a07backed Yes56c1,967$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.495334%18 W · 35 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes63c1,895$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.9931621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked No63c1,800$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.16540%26 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed No58c1,716$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.8438828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No38c1,665$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.941,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes44c1,340$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.142,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes46c1,306$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.497432.4%24 W · 50 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008320.5%17 W · 66 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked No11c1,228$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.9210917.4%19 W · 90 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes64c1,200$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43210536.2%38 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No38c1,091$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.691507.3%11 W · 139 L-11.1wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6b7…227bbacked No57c1,048$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.272147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70036411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbeab…d961backed Yes47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53014829.1%43 W · 105 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes67c996.47$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.817628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes61c982.98$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.5638614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes58c897.17$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.259726.8%26 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes42c896.19$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.3732529.2%95 W · 230 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb3…56f3backed No60c885$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5314129.3%12 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-29.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No57c825.96$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.2688018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbae1…cdf9backed No18c810$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes45c808.24$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.6114413.9%20 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes69c750.87$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.382714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a5c…d35cbacked Yes38c749.02$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.331225%3 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-26.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b19…ca35backed Yes37c748.54$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.736129.5%18 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes45c723.61$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.1315136.4%55 W · 96 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked Yes57c711.64$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.9114332.9%47 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6afc…9c39backed Yes50c702.31$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaebf…d898backed Yes45c699.37$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed No58c670.06$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.6888017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No45c655.81$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.6963821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes35c651$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.421732.3%70 W · 147 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2957…964ebacked Yes50c644.17$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.583221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No20c640.22$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3628723.7%68 W · 219 L-46.5wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd675…5cdebacked Yes54c633.58$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.883534.3%12 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+105.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes60c599.98$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24142628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf723…ab01backed Yes48c586.16$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e7…1b38backed Yes44c579.72$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.643938.5%15 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6d3…71cfbacked No63c570.99$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.148634.9%30 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes65c561.36$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.7114137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x275b…1780backed Yes48c561.12$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.664334.9%15 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked No57c557.77$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.776097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes59c537.24$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.7313511.9%16 W · 119 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes47c520.85$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.0512332.5%40 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked Yes62c513$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.5420432.4%66 W · 138 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbab2…e819backed No54c499.98$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.991560%9 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf8a…07d3backed No48c499.97$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.991040%4 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick68cpaid-41.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Yes78c498.61$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.212387%20 W · 3 L+5.0wins+0.22per pick65cpaid+35.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes60c497.52$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.2522023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes62c497.17$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.6811729.1%34 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No63c494.05$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.1462539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes39c476.61$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.481,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes35c470.34$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.218528.2%24 W · 61 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed No57c469.55$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.7557621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83ad…f1c0backed Yes46c463.47$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.914719.1%9 W · 38 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-56.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75fe…252cbacked Yes41c459.27$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.971127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa25a…3e8ebacked Yes52c451.98$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.866312.7%8 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-34.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x63ed…437dbacked No30c443.32$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.931513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-73.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf366…425ebacked Yes42c433.53$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.676127.9%17 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes44c429.69$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.6720129.4%59 W · 142 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes39c420.38$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.2950913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd15a…80dbbacked Yes70c415.71$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.182373.9%17 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick71cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes46c413.84$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.711417.5%20 W · 94 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bcf…f0d9backed Yes30c410$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e0cbacked Yes30c400$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2801100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc507…6054backed Yes43c400$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2303033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x02b6…8f5fbacked No48c394.27$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.0110542.9%45 W · 60 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa6…0b79backed Yes67c392.7$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.528033.8%27 W · 53 L-8.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes47c389.15$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1310322.3%23 W · 80 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+59.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes45c384.41$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.4319930.7%61 W · 138 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16a0…2f60backed Yes36c375.61$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.391553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x064b…eae5backed No55c368.93$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.477439.2%29 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed No27c363.95$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0648819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd444…0083backed Yes62c362.88$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.811346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No54c356.13$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.834425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4239…5dafbacked Yes66c355.17$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.652347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5545…3059backed No56c352.06$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.734942.9%21 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed No31c339.92$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.387626.3%20 W · 56 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked No64c320.28$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.7660127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes57c318.97$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.259627.1%26 W · 70 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes76c312.2$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.8533422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes45c309.82$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.715825.9%15 W · 43 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df3…6180backed Yes39c306.04$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.681776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x544a…dbe1backed No20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011831.4%37 W · 81 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.