Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d3b5353aa64aa19c3912da35f5e1d5f19a1d1b9fb5754973ecf62f357d47a25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $759,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $639,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $759,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 375 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf0a…08e8backed Yes | 0c | 90,953$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.74 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 14c | 35,232$5,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,106.22 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Yes | 0c | 33,333$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 12c | 27,095$3,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,296.74 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes | 0c | 18,002$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 81 | 9.9%8 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 10c | 17,234$1,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,695.47 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…0d7dbacked Yes | 0c | 9,370$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,309$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.74 | 68 | 8.8%6 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…2917backed Yes | 7c | 7,216$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.51 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 23c | 6,389$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.68 | 138 | 17.4%24 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc219…04fabacked Yes | 0c | 6,358$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x790f…1c14backed Yes | 24c | 4,903$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 7c | 4,853$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.19 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…e8cebacked No | 76c | 4,525$3,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.63 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 21c | 4,409$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.89 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf72…6378backed Yes | 11c | 3,906$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.21 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 6c | 3,809$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.47 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 26c | 3,700$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.55 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes | 29c | 3,440$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.84 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 3,213$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.16 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes | 8c | 3,164$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.01 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 13c | 3,118$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.61 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…d8c3backed Yes | 9c | 3,049$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 70c | 3,009$2,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.35 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 7c | 2,742$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.88 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…2da7backed Yes | 2c | 2,603$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,600$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.51 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 5c | 2,500$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 10c | 2,446$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.67 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 7c | 2,369$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.53 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 4c | 2,367$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 7c | 2,327$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.86 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,252$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.53 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 25c | 2,156$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.08 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,137$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.78 | 144 | 13.9%20 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…9b49backed No | 74c | 2,096$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.18 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 2,089$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.12 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 3c | 2,005$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb5…3f64backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,973$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.09 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 55c | 1,958$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.64 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 8c | 1,923$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.8 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…9e28backed Yes | 5c | 1,893$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,872$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.93 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 22c | 1,822$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.53 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x280f…1963backed No | 76c | 1,815$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.86 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 10c | 1,800$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.02 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,752$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.08 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 17c | 1,697$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.39 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,630$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.89 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…5cdebacked Yes | 8c | 1,628$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.17 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 5c | 1,610$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.27 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 72c | 1,572$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.41 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 8c | 1,536$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.71 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…d019backed Yes | 6c | 1,527$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 78 | 11.5%9 W · 69 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 16c | 1,495$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.82 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 9c | 1,475$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.77 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…0d39backed Yes | 5c | 1,472$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…ca63backed Yes | 14c | 1,412$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.48 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 1,390$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.96 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,332$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.02 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,329$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.37 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,328$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 17c | 1,324$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.87 | 108 | 17.6%19 W · 89 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes | 2c | 1,311$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 99 | 22.2%22 W · 77 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…3fd7backed Yes | 7c | 1,296$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 8c | 1,230$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 62c | 1,223$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.84 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 11c | 1,222$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.54 | 178 | 24.7%44 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,201$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.22 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 1,159$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.93 | 345 | 15.9%55 W · 290 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 3c | 1,147$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 6c | 1,141$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,138$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.66 | 109 | 17.4%19 W · 90 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…719abacked Yes | 7c | 1,133$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…2eb1backed Yes | 7c | 1,116$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,079$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 61c | 1,059$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.8 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a79…e2afbacked Yes | 29c | 1,027$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.73 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 50c | 1,008$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.75 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…3559backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea85…efe5backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 14.5%9 W · 53 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…6824backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 25c | 998.55$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.96 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…bc8ebacked Yes | 2c | 995.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 14c | 976.39$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.81 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 21c | 972.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.5 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…3e8ebacked Yes | 5c | 946.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 63 | 12.7%8 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…eb16backed Yes | 3c | 935.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 116 | 13.8%16 W · 100 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 36c | 918.75$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.63 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…9662backed Yes | 4c | 918.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 5c | 868.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee95…87fbbacked Yes | 7c | 861.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 20c | 856.09$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.13 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…1b38backed Yes | 9c | 850.8$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe46…8b21backed Yes | 9c | 840.47$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 218 | 16.1%35 W · 183 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf050…99cfbacked Yes | 12c | 815.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked Yes | 3c | 791.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…dbd4backed Yes | 6c | 784.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.