TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$421,818
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$390,512

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $421,818 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa638…1d87backed Yes7c47,645$3,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,288.4429331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf72…6378backed Yes0c20,064$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.98195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes2c19,995$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.93134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes1c18,491$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.3279811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes1c11,503$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1824815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes1c9,577$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.1545511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes5c8,862$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.6613817.4%24 W · 114 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes1c8,431$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.57875.7%5 W · 82 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-65.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c6,048$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.751,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes1c5,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3512429%36 W · 88 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+110.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes24c4,332$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.639723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3237…dbd4backed Yes0c4,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf787…3559backed Yes7c3,457$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.542913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-66.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes20c3,295$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.6111512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes1c3,200$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.551308.5%11 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb5…899dbacked Yes1c3,026$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.173141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd576…cb24backed Yes7c3,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6598…8ab9backed Yes18c2,888$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.79650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes2c2,635$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9427417.5%48 W · 226 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes31c2,560$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.3710125.7%26 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fb7…9f50backed Yes38c2,521$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.811040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e2…77e1backed Yes24c2,099$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.868630.2%26 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Yes9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032a…cf07backed Yes1c1,984$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93b6…f567backed Yes1c1,901$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1811325.7%29 W · 84 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebc7…653bbacked Yes4c1,796$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.22722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+51.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes22c1,765$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.631,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes5c1,725$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7510322.3%23 W · 80 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+59.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes13c1,695$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.7731621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes15c1,683$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.535930.5%18 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd242…9caabacked Yes13c1,654$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes3c1,450$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.782714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70be…044dbacked Yes35c1,337$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.957912.7%10 W · 69 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes37c1,228$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.9853522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c1…820cbacked Yes9c1,202$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.48812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-51.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes5c1,200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.534127.3%93 W · 248 L+1.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9c37…eee6backed No65c1,188$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.693432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes10c1,181$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.348819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked No65c1,114$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.956540%26 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes11c1,100$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11919124.6%47 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa25a…3e8ebacked Yes4c1,067$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.536312.7%8 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-34.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes15c1,059$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.541,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No66c992.6$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.7717631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes19c978.03$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.1910829.6%32 W · 76 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed Yes18c964.53$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.2110629.2%31 W · 75 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6b7…227bbacked No66c954.86$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.382147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No64c940.46$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.352,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e7…1b38backed Yes37c936.04$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.323938.5%15 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes1c911.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1856817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes36c905.28$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.4346521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f26…1f12backed Yes5c905.05$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5113517%23 W · 112 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes10c899.22$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.479626%25 W · 71 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes9c891.01$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.661,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes4c887.36$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0738614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeb4…98c3backed Yes3c817.66$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.62248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-84.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No74c802.24$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.751845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes28c728.4$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.761507.3%11 W · 139 L-11.1wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes5c700$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3517628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes3c699.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5756.7%5 W · 70 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-32.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes8c699.98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5414923.5%35 W · 114 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes8c699.27$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.819726.8%26 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No72c678$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.5721732.3%70 W · 147 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b3…6de9backed Yes42c675.25$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.15742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick28cpaid+84%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes6c654.85$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.431,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes37c636.14$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.263414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes17c635.04$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.4934425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8b9…2444backed Yes42c629.82$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.09933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a0…fb89backed Yes42c604.87$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.352737%10 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca86…560cbacked Yes2c600$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.48950.6%45 W · 44 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…77acbacked Yes6c600$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3315925.2%40 W · 119 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes24c593.46$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.095717.5%10 W · 47 L+0.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid+38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes26c541.08$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.663821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked No63c506.18$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.260127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18e4…8e4ebacked Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c7e…3b66backed Yes35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1752532%8 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+48.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked No66c470.04$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.513511.9%16 W · 119 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes38c451.84$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.637432.4%24 W · 50 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f2c…6da7backed Yes31c411.06$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.547643.4%33 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes4c400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.221215.1%32 W · 180 L+0.6wins0.00per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes28c400$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11142628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes16c397.79$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2834515.9%55 W · 290 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes38c381.92$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.7728526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes5c374.11$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1724617.5%43 W · 203 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes33c368.69$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6723819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ce3…ff2abacked No73c360.55$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.731573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd444…0083backed Yes29c357.48$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.941346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…a518backed Yes35c342.93$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.615332.1%17 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…5be3backed Yes14c338.08$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.475740.4%23 W · 34 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f34…89c7backed Yes42c336.37$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.336142.6%26 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No61c326.24$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.7788018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes18c318.93$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.157621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be3…44a5backed Yes29c318.74$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.444233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7522…df3cbacked Yes17c310.6$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.232128.6%6 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+56.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12f7…4ae3backed Yes29c309.99$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.74445.5%20 W · 24 L+6.1wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+152.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8723…3eedbacked No80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes10c300$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2942719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5131722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No78c299.85$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.648342.2%35 W · 48 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-16.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes34c299.26$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7537830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0759…a93dbacked Yes35c284.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.133933.3%13 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.