Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9f219a03f869a05d6329b7c38b0372fe93dda4308b29f76478fce7d44a1c32a

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,011,099
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $793,702

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,011,099 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 773 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc053…8c11backed Yes	0c	75,886$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.58	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	3c	36,999$1,140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,140.05	136	16.2%22 W · 114 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	44c	27,831$12,266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,266.14	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c6c…1f86backed Yes	51c	27,697$14,188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,187.54	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	33c	22,268$7,439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,438.65	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	18c	16,493$3,013 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,013.27	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	11c	15,312$1,727 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,726.64	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	12,442$947 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$947.41	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c7c…8fb5backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	2c	11,000$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261	149	12.8%19 W · 130 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b63…bdd3backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	36c	9,165$3,330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,329.72	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x62d8…6783backed Yes	0c	8,727$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.18	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	43c	7,008$3,005 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,005.18	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	24c	6,938$1,696 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,696.12	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	37c	6,762$2,472 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,471.79	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No	58c	6,642$3,865 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,777.95	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes	49c	6,570$3,202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,202.45	151	36.4%55 W · 96 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	32c	6,450$2,091 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,090.66	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	66c	6,109$4,023 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,086.28	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf993…cd9dbacked No	71c	5,724$4,065 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,658.68	48	50%24 W · 24 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	25c	5,640$1,390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,389.96	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	30c	5,566$1,677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,676.51	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a70…76b5backed Yes	43c	5,490$2,352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,351.72	42	31%13 W · 29 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+124%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes	39c	5,415$2,136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,136.02	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes	44c	5,355$2,373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,372.7	117	29.1%34 W · 83 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	2c	5,333$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.5	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	32c	5,284$1,702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,702.39	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	59c	5,267$3,125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,125.33	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x25f2…0822backed Yes	20c	5,094$1,002 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,001.64	74	13.5%10 W · 64 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes	17c	5,000$866 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$866.09	280	16.4%46 W · 234 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	31c	4,822$1,483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,482.53	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	38c	4,594$1,729 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,729.05	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed No	43c	4,546$1,946 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,600.18	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89b8…82b2backed Yes	47c	4,402$2,071 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,070.7	82	14.6%12 W · 70 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No	54c	4,290$2,316 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,973.26	49	65.3%32 W · 17 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+12%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	45c	4,263$1,903 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,902.53	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	23c	4,162$952 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$952.12	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	5c	4,000$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.48	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	8c	3,907$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.43	994	10.6%105 W · 889 L	-30.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa4c…7bfdbacked No	50c	3,848$1,925 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,922.51	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+2.1wins	+0.12per pick	16cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa43e…ec90backed No	69c	3,790$2,625 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,165.16	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	38c	3,748$1,411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,410.8	532	22.7%121 W · 411 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	19c	3,500$653 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$652.52	197	31%61 W · 136 L	+13.8wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+22%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	35c	3,485$1,217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,216.74	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3a…4580backed No	52c	3,465$1,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,665.48	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No	65c	3,454$2,231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,222.98	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No	61c	3,287$2,017 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,269.7	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	20c	3,000$603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603.08	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	43c	2,973$1,290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,289.6	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked No	40c	2,947$1,190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,756.9	143	32.9%47 W · 96 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x620d…9f02backed Yes	37c	2,821$1,031 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,031.49	58	24.1%14 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No	65c	2,754$1,785 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$968.77	151	64.9%98 W · 53 L	+10.2wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b9f…047ebacked Yes	35c	2,747$958 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$957.89	68	38.2%26 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0dcb…a7b4backed Yes	35c	2,667$923 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$923.23	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb378…eaf6backed Yes	10c	2,508$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa376…c17dbacked Yes	60c	2,390$1,434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,434	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No	58c	2,323$1,352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$971.13	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked No	49c	2,298$1,122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,175.96	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	2,219$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.23	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a0…fb89backed Yes	54c	2,127$1,145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,145.25	27	37%10 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5da…ff1dbacked Yes	18c	2,122$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	+59.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	17c	2,113$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.62	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39f8…badabacked Yes	36c	2,101$749 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$748.6	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-3.6wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-30%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	51c	2,088$1,057 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,057.16	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	60c	2,055$1,226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$829.19	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb046…bc09backed Yes	59c	2,039$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a79…e2afbacked Yes	36c	1,999$727 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$726.54	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes	41c	1,874$760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$760	140	37.1%52 W · 88 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	14c	1,861$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.59	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes	47c	1,854$865 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$865.29	85	28.2%24 W · 61 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d50…c26bbacked Yes	24c	1,854$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.61	114	16.7%19 W · 95 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fa…abcfbacked No	51c	1,832$941 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$890.89	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No	53c	1,731$926 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$805.46	308	54.9%169 W · 139 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	3c	1,716$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x064b…eae5backed No	59c	1,715$1,012 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$702.76	74	39.2%29 W · 45 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes	7c	1,694$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.3	192	29.2%56 W · 136 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	34c	1,670$574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$574.31	275	47.6%131 W · 144 L	+9.9wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb5…899dbacked Yes	51c	1,668$845 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$845	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	+3.6wins	+0.11per pick	30cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes	9c	1,656$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6d0…9911backed Yes	16c	1,653$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbeab…d961backed Yes	43c	1,625$699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$698.99	148	29.1%43 W · 105 L	+6.6wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes	32c	1,599$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.68	149	28.2%42 W · 107 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	40c	1,588$637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$636.92	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	37c	1,559$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.49	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	39c	1,507$587 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$586.91	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9909…b90cbacked No	73c	1,502$1,101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$401.48	15	60%9 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	69cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf48…136dbacked Yes	50c	1,500$745 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$745	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No	48c	1,454$702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$752.77	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	16c	1,453$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.23	270	24.4%66 W · 204 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa028…0f33backed Yes	36c	1,438$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518.46	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	44c	1,438$628 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$627.86	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18d4…307cbacked Yes	42c	1,414$594 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$594	75	18.7%14 W · 61 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eb4…0872backed Yes	30c	1,400$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423	67	29.9%20 W · 47 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd004…d54abacked Yes	22c	1,380$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	84	36.9%31 W · 53 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	8c	1,375$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.5	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef9…11b4backed Yes	45c	1,330$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.16per pick	57cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No	61c	1,327$812 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$514.67	239	55.2%132 W · 107 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98dc…6ae4backed Yes	3c	1,319$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+149.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5230…e0b6backed Yes	37c	1,317$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489.52	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+74.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event