Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa553b8a2a2a9def767404c77e7b77b2dacefe501cb7a3d1af0639846b162b183
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $630,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $350,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $630,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 0c | 55,386$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd112…6622backed Yes | 0c | 53,503$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Yes | 0c | 52,887$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 0c | 27,896$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 0c | 13,095$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 12,200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8d…28dbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 9,759$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 9,612$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 1c | 9,244$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 1c | 6,947$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 0c | 6,300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b4…7092backed Yes | 0c | 5,396$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 83 | 8.4%7 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 5,232$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 0c | 5,028$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…b8f8backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 3cpaid | +708.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 2c | 3,563$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,520$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 342 | 3.5%12 W · 330 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 3,405$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,997$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 8c | 2,990$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.23 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 1,965$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…45b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,964$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 81 | 8.6%7 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x062d…500fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,621$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 114 | 8.8%10 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes | 3c | 1,600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 140 | 26.4%37 W · 103 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 1c | 1,508$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 182 | 4.4%8 W · 174 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92d…a225backed Yes | 3c | 1,327$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 233 | 8.2%19 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…2700backed Yes | 7c | 1,278$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 67 | 6%4 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 2c | 1,173$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,121$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed18…e9d8backed Yes | 1c | 1,081$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 2c | 1,005$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes | 3c | 953.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 70 | 10%7 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70be…044dbacked Yes | 7c | 906.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…6ae4backed Yes | 11c | 903.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +149.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 878.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 5c | 600$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes | 7c | 600$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 160 | 9.4%15 W · 145 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 7c | 527$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +209.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 7c | 494.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 8c | 464.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 144 | 13.9%20 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked Yes | 2c | 454.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 125 | 8.8%11 W · 114 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…4277backed Yes | 2c | 454.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 424.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 11c | 421$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 3c | 385$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 331.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d50…c26bbacked Yes | 7c | 318.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 114 | 16.7%19 W · 95 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…992fbacked Yes | 8c | 261.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 7c | 208.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 168 | 31.5%53 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…9529backed Yes | 8c | 132.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189b…3fc8backed Yes | 8c | 128.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d8…8082backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb944…409cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf50…e226backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02c9…866ebacked Yes | 9c | 111.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 442 | 27.4%121 W · 321 L | -21.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…f9c0backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.