Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x075fd469287eccba7587125027ca7901211802855d0c48f6d161fa197d7e8375

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $406,327
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $152,052

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $406,327 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	0c	55,043$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.04	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	42,614$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.07	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Yes	0c	22,222$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.44	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	1cpaid	+1,823.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	0c	21,099$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.59	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d23…948dbacked Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b63…bdd3backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce8d…28dbbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb95…c9f1backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	6,069$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.29	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	5,713$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.62	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	5,126$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.67	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	0c	5,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	3,535$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.76	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	0c	3,163$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.19	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	3,126$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.95	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	3,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.99	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	1c	2,600$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	6c	2,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	3c	1,676$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70be…044dbacked Yes	4c	1,337$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.78	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	1,215$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	1,200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.9	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	5c	1,050$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.49	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,028$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.14	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d50…c26bbacked Yes	3c	810.64$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.09	114	16.7%19 W · 95 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	5c	608.36$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	569.45$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.47	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	6c	499.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc793…02a9backed Yes	4c	450$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	7c	428.57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc71a…992fbacked Yes	6c	320.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	5c	318.33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.92	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca6…964bbacked Yes	6c	300$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dbf…10d9backed Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+36.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	168	31.5%53 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed Yes	7c	198.71$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.91	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-91.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa757…2438backed Yes	7c	143$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	20	10%2 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacb1…4e87backed Yes	15c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event