Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3790655cbef2a9bb342b4b5186c5d2575719cdbcf171265479ec907f0794a654

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,101,040
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $927,239

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,101,040 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 949 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	3c	60,336$1,735 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,735.47	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc5…fe75backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	29c	18,453$5,438 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,437.96	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	44c	17,566$7,776 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,775.57	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf993…cd9dbacked No	58c	16,223$9,414 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,808.9	48	50%24 W · 24 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	32c	15,917$5,115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,114.61	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	32c	12,698$4,043 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,043.09	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	24c	12,552$2,999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,999.16	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	53c	11,156$5,917 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,916.62	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	37c	10,670$3,954 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,954.22	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c6c…1f86backed No	50c	10,208$5,121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,086.82	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	30c	9,002$2,693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,693.2	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	16c	8,562$1,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,349.81	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	39c	8,387$3,267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,267.04	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	26c	8,278$2,113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,113.02	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	32c	8,101$2,621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,621.15	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	8,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes	4c	7,664$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.44	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	+2.3wins	+0.10per pick	31cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	28c	6,777$1,867 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,867.05	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	29c	6,324$1,817 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,816.7	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	13c	6,000$772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$772.49	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	2c	5,083$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.5	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	33c	5,071$1,668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,668.13	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No	67c	5,052$3,385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,667.35	49	65.3%32 W · 17 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+12%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	39c	5,018$1,953 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,952.8	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62d8…6783backed Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	46c	4,874$2,247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,246.79	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08f1…9a02backed Yes	22c	4,773$1,043 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,042.92	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89b8…82b2backed Yes	36c	4,752$1,706 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,705.77	82	14.6%12 W · 70 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked No	75c	4,675$3,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,175.47	164	27.4%45 W · 119 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcb…a7b4backed Yes	35c	4,645$1,616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,615.52	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked Yes	1c	4,600$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.6	124	24.2%30 W · 94 L	+11.3wins	+0.09per pick	15cpaid	+100.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	25c	4,578$1,138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,137.74	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	20c	4,497$886 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$885.52	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	24c	4,169$989 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$988.91	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	34c	4,113$1,410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,410.41	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	36c	4,105$1,471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,471.32	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No	51c	4,086$2,093 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,993.45	158	44.9%71 W · 87 L	+12.4wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd81c…3348backed Yes	40c	4,069$1,627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,626.97	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes	32c	4,000$1,298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,298.09	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	10c	4,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed Yes	35c	3,910$1,379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,378.99	79	17.7%14 W · 65 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	35c	3,794$1,337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,336.88	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	52c	3,793$1,969 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,968.78	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe807…4d35backed Yes	55c	3,777$2,071 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,071.14	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	29c	3,669$1,056 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,055.74	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	24c	3,616$855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$854.85	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	23c	3,610$826 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$825.7	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No	58c	3,552$2,069 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,482.62	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No	50c	3,398$1,702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,696.19	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa43e…ec90backed No	52c	3,395$1,766 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,629.52	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed Yes	38c	3,190$1,217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,217.44	92	33.7%31 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eb4…0872backed Yes	31c	2,953$928 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$927.9	67	29.9%20 W · 47 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21b5…1db6backed Yes	77c	2,946$2,255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,255.26	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.77per pick	77cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	46c	2,889$1,331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,330.97	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes	2c	2,856$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.5	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcdba…e7a2backed Yes	30c	2,839$848 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$848.42	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	+67.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes	61c	2,799$1,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,700.25	115	12.2%14 W · 101 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	30c	2,776$829 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$828.88	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a70…76b5backed Yes	36c	2,749$976 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$976.47	42	31%13 W · 29 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+124%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x001f…9cb5backed No	69c	2,741$1,882 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$858.56	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes	28c	2,730$765 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$765.21	117	29.1%34 W · 83 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	30c	2,715$825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$824.57	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	17c	2,700$463 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$462.92	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98dc…6ae4backed Yes	32c	2,629$849 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$849.07	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+149.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	44c	2,617$1,147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,147.36	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeded…4dcabacked Yes	48c	2,547$1,222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,221.98	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-21%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa340…f3d4backed Yes	29c	2,545$737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$736.93	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+358.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes	34c	2,519$863 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$862.81	149	28.2%42 W · 107 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18d4…307cbacked Yes	36c	2,465$891 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$890.99	75	18.7%14 W · 61 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbea2…2d33backed No	52c	2,415$1,253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,162.03	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	-9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	73c	2,365$1,727 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$637.9	518	45.9%238 W · 280 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe2…5410backed Yes	63c	2,334$1,460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,459.71	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+568.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No	62c	2,330$1,454 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$876.82	309	55%170 W · 139 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked No	44c	2,249$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,248.85	143	32.9%47 W · 96 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	28c	2,239$629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$629	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	67c	2,211$1,492 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$719.05	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b35…12b3backed Yes	3c	2,192$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	237	35.4%84 W · 153 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	24c	2,100$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.59	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb5…899dbacked No	47c	2,098$987 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,111.09	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	+3.6wins	+0.11per pick	30cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes	43c	2,039$870 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$869.7	140	37.1%52 W · 88 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf48…136dbacked Yes	35c	2,033$711 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$711.01	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a79…e2afbacked Yes	29c	2,000$577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7d…5913backed No	73c	1,997$1,449 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$548.51	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	38c	1,975$744 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$744.4	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No	65c	1,965$1,279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$686.12	151	64.9%98 W · 53 L	+10.2wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	41c	1,927$794 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$793.94	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed No	36c	1,921$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,221.13	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes	50c	1,906$946 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$945.79	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes	36c	1,884$677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$676.54	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fa…abcfbacked No	74c	1,832$1,350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$482.3	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	51c	1,830$940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$939.57	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd32c…a4c2backed No	54c	1,804$967 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$837.41	82	53.7%44 W · 38 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d77…7004backed Yes	23c	1,800$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.4	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-38%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8fb…af41backed No	56c	1,781$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$781.18	68	39.7%27 W · 41 L	+4.7wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5230…e0b6backed Yes	22c	1,780$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.83	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+74.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c33…f910backed Yes	25c	1,775$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.63	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28c0…d319backed Yes	59c	1,765$1,049 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,049.08	55	56.4%31 W · 24 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…e544backed No	68c	1,704$1,157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$546.86	61	67.2%41 W · 20 L	+3.9wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b5a…7070backed Yes	65c	1,702$1,107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,107.33	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event