Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e412dc5b531bdba89a1bceca1c7115ea20ab89630b24289b5e209b2fe2aa2af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 5c | 5,383$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.59 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 22c | 1,862$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.25 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 4c | 1,791$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 17c | 1,428$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.95 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,368$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,073$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 1,071$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,063$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 1c | 976.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…0c07backed Yes | 5c | 696.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 667.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 16c | 449.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 422.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 388.53$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.11 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 74c | 382.32$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 354.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 344.06$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 10c | 333.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 20c | 330.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…1181backed Yes | 7c | 285.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ef…caabbacked Yes | 42c | 276.71$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.42 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 21c | 260.94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…38b3backed Yes | 49c | 256.42$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 45c | 255$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.65 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 9c | 246.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 20c | 222.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 15c | 217.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes | 6c | 213.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 191.54$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…06f8backed Yes | 15c | 189.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 18c | 179.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Yes | 11c | 178.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ef…e590backed Yes | 7c | 177.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 63c | 172.14$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 47c | 171.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 25c | 162.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 72c | 150.77$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 11c | 148.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 11c | 142.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 22c | 137.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 136.45$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 132.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 15c | 131.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 34c | 118.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 20c | 116.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 115.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 26c | 114.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 112.09$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb3…9ed6backed No | 77c | 109.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 19c | 109.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 14c | 109.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 17c | 107.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 14c | 106.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…b34dbacked Yes | 36c | 106.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +76%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…0e6ebacked Yes | 21c | 106.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 22c | 105.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 76c | 104.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 12c | 101$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc6…7bc7backed Yes | 19c | 100.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f55…38aebacked No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 48c | 99.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 15c | 98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 73c | 90.75$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 87.78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb201…2766backed Yes | 38c | 86.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 83.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 24c | 79.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 23c | 76.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…ff75backed Yes | 14c | 76.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 75.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 73.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 73.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 27c | 71.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 25c | 71.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 19c | 70.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 15c | 68.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 16c | 68.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 19c | 67.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 26c | 66.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 38c | 66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 63.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 26c | 60.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c09…3f91backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 37c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…4785backed Yes | 30c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 45c | 52.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 46c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 42c | 50.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 30c | 49.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 44.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.