Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27fff950da9e3ab34a6ccd2fd31c9ec74496bb771833c8d9420e291094c8d561
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,498$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 699.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…38b3backed Yes | 45c | 671.03$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.92 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked No | 79c | 510.03$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.89 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 6c | 500.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 21c | 436.01$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.84 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c6…2ff3backed Yes | 16c | 389.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 355.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5e…843dbacked Yes | 5c | 329.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 19c | 327.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 5c | 312.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 311.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…fb20backed No | 73c | 288.55$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.86 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 272.87$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Yes | 11c | 251.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 79c | 233.3$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…cef2backed Yes | 5c | 226.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 7c | 213.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 73c | 207.87$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 29c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 195.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 31c | 193.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 20c | 190.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 188.37$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 78c | 150.07$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 26c | 139.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 19c | 129.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…adc5backed No | 75c | 129.03$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 110.02$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 74c | 109.18$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 74c | 105.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed No | 79c | 105$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ac…2c3ebacked Yes | 18c | 101.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f57…f387backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f55…38aebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba47…df90backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcde1…76d5backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82db…ef2ebacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…956bbacked Yes | 29c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 24c | 92.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 79c | 89.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 37c | 81.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 80.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 29c | 80.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 30c | 73.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…c151backed Yes | 27c | 73.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1797…080abacked Yes | 28c | 70.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dae…0128backed Yes | 26c | 66.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 27c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 72c | 62.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 33c | 61.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 66c | 61.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe7…33d8backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 27c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 59.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 34c | 59.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 29c | 57.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 72c | 54.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 70c | 54.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 79c | 53.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…06f8backed Yes | 28c | 50.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…ff75backed Yes | 30c | 50.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 74c | 47.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 79c | 43.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb201…2766backed Yes | 31c | 42.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa387…3aadbacked No | 72c | 40.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 76c | 39.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 30c | 37.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes | 34c | 35.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 68c | 35.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 69c | 33.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 32.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 71c | 31.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 72c | 28.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…4d7ebacked No | 72c | 27.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02fe…5af0backed No | 76c | 26.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 24.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 64c | 21.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 21.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 71c | 20.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff0…a294backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.