Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x517b119398bea11d3cb9e82f6a4f13e4df7516a2fc78dcb592649e72c092d9c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00e7…fc47backed Yes | 4c | 3,523$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 10c | 3,082$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.35 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 16c | 2,974$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.32 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 8c | 2,596$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.34 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 36c | 1,612$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.81 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 79c | 1,342$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.36 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 1,326$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 4c | 1,173$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 18c | 1,039$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.34 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e48…95c7backed Yes | 8c | 999.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 2c | 905$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 2c | 859.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 3c | 645.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 626.37$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.44 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…0c07backed Yes | 7c | 584.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 2c | 580.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 67c | 546.02$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.64 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 22c | 539.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.96 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 7c | 515.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 73c | 468.14$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.48 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 3c | 467.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 5c | 450.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 431.6$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 9c | 429.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 421.23$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 9c | 415$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 7c | 350$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 340.21$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.19 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 14c | 340$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 339.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7e…3416backed Yes | 18c | 311.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 48c | 299.25$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.48 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 4c | 282.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 55c | 242.33$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.14 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 235.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 13c | 226.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 21c | 223.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 28c | 222.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 15c | 219.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…b9d7backed Yes | 5c | 215.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 7c | 207.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 17c | 199.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 6c | 199.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7570…5be1backed Yes | 14c | 197.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 195.58$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 19c | 192.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed Yes | 8c | 187$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 11c | 182.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 177$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 28c | 175.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 167.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 28c | 164.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 18c | 163.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1251…c902backed Yes | 67c | 149.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 58c | 142.77$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 72c | 139.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 135$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed No | 74c | 133$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed No | 47c | 133$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 22c | 133$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…ddfebacked No | 46c | 131.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 17c | 125$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…b978backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes | 67c | 119.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.65 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 114.3$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 78c | 110.22$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 73c | 109.01$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 68c | 107.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.49 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 15c | 106.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…3633backed No | 79c | 101.71$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 27c | 99.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 50c | 99.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 70c | 97.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…c377backed Yes | 36c | 92.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 33c | 92.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 34c | 71.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 62c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 58c | 69.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 34c | 66.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…988dbacked No | 80c | 54.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ac…2c3ebacked Yes | 37c | 54.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 23c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 71c | 50.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2968…510fbacked No | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecb…d052backed No | 74c | 42.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d0…f098backed Yes | 38c | 42.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63bd…aff2backed No | 69c | 41.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 25c | 40.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…2b48backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…5263backed No | 74c | 33.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 29.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.