Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2ee1ee0d660d88b865dcd900a9fcae2b03a7f752c2da00250e9e36aeed8074d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 1c | 3,346$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,431$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 51c | 381.47$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 45c | 379.22$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 45c | 369.39$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.98 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 339.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 322.68$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.67 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed No | 70c | 317.43$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 52c | 300.25$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.13 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 26c | 293.26$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 53c | 283.62$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.01 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 257.12$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 255$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…06f8backed Yes | 47c | 247.25$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.55 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 62c | 242.86$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 39c | 241.84$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.35 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 7c | 238$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 8c | 234.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 12c | 210$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1251…c902backed Yes | 49c | 202.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfde1…914bbacked Yes | 52c | 201.25$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.43 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 51c | 199.76$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.11 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 47c | 188.49$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 49c | 188.37$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.77 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a49ebacked Yes | 53c | 184.59$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.26 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 54c | 184.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 55c | 183.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 177.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 54c | 171.68$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 168$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 20c | 166.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 51c | 155.77$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 67c | 151.82$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 150.62$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 34c | 150$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 146.81$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 144.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 16c | 138.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 59c | 133$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 50c | 112.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 48c | 110$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…5844backed Yes | 46c | 108.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 108.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 56c | 107.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 45c | 107.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 105.83$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 48c | 104.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c2…792dbacked Yes | 48c | 103.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3884…4a9cbacked Yes | 52c | 102.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 51c | 101.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 45c | 101.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes | 49c | 101.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…e722backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 40c | 99.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 52c | 97.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 63c | 97.15$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 36c | 96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b62…33d9backed Yes | 16c | 94.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 68c | 90.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 40c | 85.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 44c | 81.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 54c | 80.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ef…caabbacked Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 50c | 79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 18c | 78.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 51c | 77.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 54c | 74.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 54c | 74.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd763…bd7fbacked No | 54c | 73.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 80c | 73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 68c | 72.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 51c | 69.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 47c | 63.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 62.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 58c | 62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed No | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 42c | 58.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9a…371abacked Yes | 52c | 57.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 50c | 55.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 40c | 55.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…7376backed Yes | 45c | 55.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 43c | 55.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e4…3afebacked No | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 54c | 54.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 55c | 54.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Yes | 37c | 53.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 51.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 35c | 51.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 51.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 42c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 50.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c02…7555backed No | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 40c | 49.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…64e7backed No | 49c | 49.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.