Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b551cfd85228fc8f5a8b0995552eecab2ff64b38ec09ef2d459bad2bee10545
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 3c | 5,619$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,441.56 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 24c | 3,071$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,348.59 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…0c07backed Yes | 2c | 2,556$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,496.23 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,268.17 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 2,231$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 5c | 2,049$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,937.77 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 11c | 2,028$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…747bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,467$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,451.98 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +208%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 1c | 1,449$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 10c | 1,243$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.23 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 8c | 902.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 10c | 890.28$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.61 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 10c | 775.17$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.14 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00e7…fc47backed No | 4c | 680.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 24c | 658.29$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.86 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 5c | 657.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.33 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 656.77$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.13 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63bd…aff2backed Yes | 74c | 635.15$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.61 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 72c | 633.94$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 4c | 606.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 22c | 590.83$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.38 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 37c | 546.72$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.64 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 41c | 542.55$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.78 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 54c | 506.4$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.47 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 46c | 495.49$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.08 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 29c | 452.75$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.76 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 2c | 446.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.1 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 73c | 409.56$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.07 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 360.77$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 357.57$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 314.92$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.52 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…3633backed No | 46c | 310.56$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.57 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 4c | 288.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.11 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 10c | 282.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 272.15$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 11c | 239.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 69c | 238.83$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.94 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 217.93$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 12c | 216$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.04 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 65c | 205.89$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ef…e590backed Yes | 6c | 203.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.82 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 195.57$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 71c | 194.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 187$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.87 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 16c | 186$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 56c | 174.12$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.24 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 170$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked No | 17c | 169.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 15c | 169.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.39 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 7c | 159.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 22c | 155$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 9c | 149.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.15 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc86c…2a30backed No | 63c | 149.56$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -5.3wins | -0.48per pick | 67cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 77c | 146.45$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 61c | 139.7$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d0…f098backed Yes | 61c | 138$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…0ae1backed Yes | 46c | 136.92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 134$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.27 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 43c | 133.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 14c | 128.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.93 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 123.05$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…5263backed Yes | 46c | 122.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 75c | 119.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 24c | 116.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b66…db0abacked Yes | 69c | 108.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 28c | 108.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 45c | 106.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…0511backed Yes | 34c | 103.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 77c | 103.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 100.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 53c | 99.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…b3ecbacked Yes | 42c | 93.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 19c | 93.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34f…c66bbacked No | 43c | 91.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 23c | 85.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 17c | 82.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ec…3477backed Yes | 54c | 80.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 21c | 65.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 15c | 64.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7570…5be1backed No | 45c | 63.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 48c | 62.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 67c | 59.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…dc72backed Yes | 36c | 54.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 23c | 54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fda…6c62backed Yes | 39c | 51.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 77c | 47.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ba…cf4dbacked Yes | 46c | 43.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2968…510fbacked Yes | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 43c | 37.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 29c | 36.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 68c | 34.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 79c | 20.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 57c | 19.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.