Tennis · resolved market
Paris: Madison Keys vs Sarah Rakotomanga
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3805f5a279ad57e18ccd14f64497077cd0120f6849e9884ed1c29288c95481c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Madison Keysof Madison Keys, Sarah Rakotomanga
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Sarah Rakotomanga | 7c | 5,342$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.77 | 4,253 | 45%1,912 W · 2,341 L | +20.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Sarah Rakotomanga | 9c | 4,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 231 | 26%60 W · 171 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa376…c17dbacked Sarah Rakotomanga | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Sarah Rakotomanga | 7c | 2,748$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.55 | 3,726 | 42.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L | -48.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Sarah Rakotomanga | 10c | 2,359$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.23 | 290 | 28.3%82 W · 208 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Sarah Rakotomanga | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 4,760 | 49.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L | +176.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sarah Rakotomanga | 12c | 1,801$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.07 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Sarah Rakotomanga | 9c | 1,500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3,319 | 48.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L | -52.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…63a0backed Sarah Rakotomanga | 11c | 1,106$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf96d…20bebacked Sarah Rakotomanga | 5c | 1,040$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 482 | 14.1%68 W · 414 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f39…7a21backed Sarah Rakotomanga | 8c | 766.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe6…a99fbacked Sarah Rakotomanga | 2c | 753.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 759 | 12.1%92 W · 667 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Sarah Rakotomanga | 3c | 680$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 213 | 17.4%37 W · 176 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Sarah Rakotomanga | 8c | 643.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 856 | 34.2%293 W · 563 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Sarah Rakotomanga | 10c | 618.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4b…6ab7backed Sarah Rakotomanga | 5c | 410.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…32a5backed Sarah Rakotomanga | 10c | 303.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 222 | 8.6%19 W · 203 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Sarah Rakotomanga | 14c | 259.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Sarah Rakotomanga | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x592c…2824backed Sarah Rakotomanga | 17c | 195.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Sarah Rakotomanga | 6c | 188.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Sarah Rakotomanga | 18c | 186$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 5,422 | 56.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L | +231.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Sarah Rakotomanga | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,087 | 54.1%1,130 W · 957 L | +64.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…f683backed Sarah Rakotomanga | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 336 | 47.3%159 W · 177 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2409…215ebacked Sarah Rakotomanga | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 50.8%124 W · 120 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4c…5c55backed Sarah Rakotomanga | 16c | 83.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +130.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Sarah Rakotomanga | 15c | 74.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…2d04backed Sarah Rakotomanga | 17c | 59.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.