TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Chicago Sky vs. Golden State Valkyries

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Chicago Skyof Chicago Sky, Golden State Valkyries
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$188,123
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$201,901

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,123 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38c2…d3a7backed Golden State Valkyries40c36,599$14,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,791.292657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Chicago Sky54c22,564$12,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,455.4822748.5%110 W · 117 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Chicago Sky31c14,886$4,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,271.1613950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Golden State Valkyries69c14,315$9,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,894.1323245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Chicago Sky52c11,362$5,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,463.386851.5%35 W · 33 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Golden State Valkyries60c9,597$5,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,760.8499548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef1b…8697backed Golden State Valkyries50c8,000$4,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,033.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Sky42c7,632$3,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,460.061,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Chicago Sky46c6,195$2,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,320.764450%22 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Sky56c5,422$3,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,388.51,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fce…c02abacked Chicago Sky47c4,540$2,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,419.64650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+61.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Golden State Valkyries73c4,404$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20023049.6%114 W · 116 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Chicago Sky53c4,320$2,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,035.5812045%54 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa00…f736backed Golden State Valkyries55c4,011$2,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,216.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Golden State Valkyries46c3,841$1,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,754.44650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Golden State Valkyries27c3,718$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011545.2%52 W · 63 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Chicago Sky53c3,674$1,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,733.5324852.4%130 W · 118 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3663…8950backed Chicago Sky60c3,338$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Golden State Valkyries61c3,279$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Chicago Sky54c2,398$1,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.6831043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Sky48c2,017$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.7726247.7%125 W · 137 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Chicago Sky39c1,795$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.874829.2%14 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Sky60c1,706$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.285158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x08c4…e6a5backed Golden State Valkyries62c1,625$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked Golden State Valkyries22c1,622$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.048228%23 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x623b…8facbacked Golden State Valkyries54c1,472$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Chicago Sky55c1,388$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.0236750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Golden State Valkyries57c1,161$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.659129.7%27 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Chicago Sky45c1,098$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.6431448.4%152 W · 162 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Chicago Sky18c1,003$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.8212745.7%58 W · 69 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago Sky47c938.27$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.7110858.3%63 W · 45 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeed0…dd5ebacked Golden State Valkyries49c892$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+72.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Golden State Valkyries46c866.2$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.586746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Golden State Valkyries55c833.3$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Golden State Valkyries49c777.02$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.613842.1%16 W · 22 L-5.7wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x43e0…8618backed Golden State Valkyries49c770.64$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Golden State Valkyries75c764.32$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.1255255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34cc…d703backed Golden State Valkyries43c718.34$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde6…764bbacked Golden State Valkyries60c664.93$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Sky34c629.16$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.5726147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Chicago Sky30c580$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40613024.6%32 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Golden State Valkyries56c552.77$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.99549.5%47 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Sky49c533.53$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.7237650.3%189 W · 187 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf91c…baa7backed Golden State Valkyries40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+348.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Golden State Valkyries43c499.94$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.73714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe85d…ad4bbacked Golden State Valkyries42c450.83$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.3590%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked Chicago Sky64c400$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1442040%8 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b39…7fbcbacked Golden State Valkyries40c400$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e0…e2cbbacked Chicago Sky51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.161540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Chicago Sky74c381$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.252552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Chicago Sky44c330$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.83545.7%16 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f4…e6d4backed Chicago Sky62c322.2$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Golden State Valkyries36c306.25$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1117929.1%23 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-34.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Chicago Sky33c303.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.499635.4%34 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1c4…f151backed Golden State Valkyries19c300$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Golden State Valkyries39c282.33$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7937850%189 W · 189 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed Chicago Sky70c280.89$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.31580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Chicago Sky21c261$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.5515250.7%77 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee11…19a9backed Chicago Sky35c238.44$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.832548%12 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d57…18ddbacked Chicago Sky32c222.22$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.111163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed Golden State Valkyries29c214.37$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.17944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+33.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa376…c17dbacked Chicago Sky16c203.19$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x65d4…4e71backed Golden State Valkyries80c201.44$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.151163.6%7 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick73cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5282…82fcbacked Golden State Valkyries41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fb0…99a6backed Golden State Valkyries41c199.99$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Chicago Sky33c199.98$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9821337.6%80 W · 133 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Golden State Valkyries52c192.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3114452.8%76 W · 68 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad6…a93cbacked Chicago Sky57c189.96$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59ea…ce0bbacked Chicago Sky63c189.95$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.284100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+116%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e44…f14dbacked Golden State Valkyries32c181.08$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x565a…3207backed Golden State Valkyries36c179.73$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Golden State Valkyries36c179.44$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.61030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-45%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40a4…c6a9backed Chicago Sky52c176.21$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.81560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e3…5a40backed Chicago Sky59c168.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c1e…a29ebacked Golden State Valkyries31c163.64$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Golden State Valkyries69c160.87$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick65cpaid-60.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xea60…cc6bbacked Chicago Sky63c158.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Golden State Valkyries64c158.29$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9729654.4%161 W · 135 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Chicago Sky70c157.53$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2620642.7%88 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Chicago Sky66c156.72$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.185863.8%37 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34ca…9de7backed Chicago Sky33c151.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.71566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Chicago Sky66c148.46$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0918844.1%83 W · 105 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f2…4f6dbacked Golden State Valkyries33c145.15$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.92552%13 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Chicago Sky38c143.07$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.356127.9%17 W · 44 L-10.1wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-42.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Golden State Valkyries73c136.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked Golden State Valkyries38c130.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.612429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Chicago Sky38c121.85$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.453531.4%11 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4720…007bbacked Golden State Valkyries42c120$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3429…fb20backed Golden State Valkyries44c113.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x101c…543dbacked Chicago Sky62c112.43$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.432853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e0…a311backed Chicago Sky20c111.72$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.98540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid+34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3704…5487backed Chicago Sky44c111.41$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.41353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Chicago Sky45c105.68$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.016237.1%23 W · 39 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Chicago Sky48c100.69$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3912355.3%68 W · 55 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2045…c77cbacked Chicago Sky65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353357.6%19 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Sky37c99.44$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.889349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe564…1e80backed Golden State Valkyries50c99.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Chicago Sky63c97.11$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.317431.1%23 W · 51 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d50…d283backed Golden State Valkyries36c89.78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.211154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Golden State Valkyries45c88.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405156.9%29 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.